Presidential Projection 10.28.08

Senate: +8 DEM
House: +18 DEM
Governorships: +1 DEM

1 week until Election Day

New Mexico returns to a light shade of blue, moving back to Leans Obama after one day in the likely column.

Obama/Biden 364 (53.4) McCain/Palin 174 (45.6)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 27th: McCain +.8

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Illinois

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

California, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Oregon

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Maine, Washington, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arizona, Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana, Kentucky

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 11.1%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.9%
3. Virginia-Obama 6.5%
4. Colorado-Obama 6.2%
5. Ohio-Obama 4.2%
6. Nevada-Obama 3.6%
7. Florida-Obama 2.4%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.5%
9. North Carolina-Obama 0.5%
10. Indiana-McCain 0.7%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.4%
12. North Dakota-McCain 5.8%
13. West Virginia-McCain 5.9%
14. Montana-McCain 6.0%
15. Arizona-McCain 8.2%