Thursday, October 30, 2008

Senate Rankings 10.30.08


Senate +8 DEM


Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory needed for takeover, +1 GOP or S.Q. with McCain victory)
Projected Senate: 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM) to 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Wide Range: 51-48-1 DEM (+1 DEM) to 62-37-1 DEM (+12 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +7 DEM (Cook: +7 DEM, Sabato: +7 DEM, CQ: +7 DEM, Rothenberg: +7-8 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 56-41-1-2 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 57-42-1 (+7 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 2 GOP 0
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 2 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 6 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 12 GOP 1
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority with Lieberman: 25%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority without Lieberman: 10%

Switches from October 23rd: None

†-December runoff currently projected

Safe Democratic


Virginia

Likely Democratic


New Mexico

Leans Democratic


Colorado, New Hampshire, Oregon, Alaska

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

North Carolina, Minnesota

Leans Republican

Georgia†, Mississippi (Special), Kentucky, Maine

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

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