House Ranking 10.15.08

House +14 DEM

After the release of 3Q fundraising numbers last night, Alabama 5th has moved from DEM HOLD to GOP Gain and New Jersey 7th has moved from DEM Gain to GOP Hold. The new numbers are reflected below

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 250-185 DEM (+14 DEM)
Narrow Range: 238-197 DEM (+2 DEM) t0 261-174 DEM (+25 DEM)
Wide Range: 223-212 DEM (+13 GOP) to 275-160 DEM (+39 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +13 DEM (Cook: +11-12 DEM, Sabato: +15 DEM, CQ: +9 DEM, Rothenberg: +18 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 238-174-23 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 250-185 DEM (+14 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 12 GOP 11
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 17 DEM 6
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 8 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 39 GOP 15
Likelihood of Turnover: Naught, Nil, Nada, Zip, Zero

Switches from October 1st: +3 DEM (+6 DEM, +3 GOP)

From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Minnesota 3rd, Colorado 4th, Michigan 7th, New York 29th, North Carolina 8th, Pennsylvania 3rd
From DEM Gain to GOP Hold: Connecticut 4th, New Jersey 7th
From DEM Hold to GOP Gain: Florida 16th


Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (2)

New York 13th, New York 25th

Leans Democratic (6)

Virginia 11th, Alaska At-Large, Illinois 11th, Arizona 1st, New Jersey 3rd, Ohio 16th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (9)

Nevada 3rd, New Mexico 1st, Colorado 4th, Ohio 15th, Minnesota 3rd, North Carolina 8th, Pennsylvania 3rd, New York 29th, Michigan 7th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (8)

Florida 24th, New Jersey 7th, Connecticut 4th, Michigan 9th, Ohio 1st, New Mexico 2nd, Florida 8th, Louisiana 4th

Leans Republican (14)

Illinois 10th, Washington 8th, Florida 21st, Florida 25th, Missouri 9th, New York 26th, California 4th, Alabama 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Maryland 1st, Missouri 6th, Ohio 2nd, Kentucky 2nd, Wyoming At-Large

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (8)

Idaho 1st, Nevada 2nd, Arizona 3rd, Florida 13th, West Virginia 2nd, Nebraska 2nd, Pennsylvania 6th, Pennsylvania 15th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (8)

Pennsylvania 18th, Texas 7th, Illinois 6th, New Jersey 5th, Minnesota 6th, Virginia 5th, Texas 10th, Minnesota 2nd

Currently Safe (144)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican/Tossup (3)

Florida 16th, Texas 22nd, Alabama 5th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (3)

Pennsylvania 11th, New Hampshire 1st, Louisiana 6th

Leans Democratic (9)

California 11th, Kansas 2nd, Georgia 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, Mississippi 1st, Wisconsin 8th, Arizona 8th, Kentucky 3rd, Pennsylvania 4th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (8)

Oregon 5th, Arizona 5th, Indiana 9th, Illinois 14th, New York 20th, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Connecticut 5th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (7)

Ohio 18th, Kansas 3rd, New York 24th, Georgia 12th, Pennsylvania 8th, New Hampshire 2nd, Minnesota 1st, Indiana 8th

Currently Safe (206)