Friday, October 17, 2008
Presidential Projection 10.17.08
18 days until election day
McCain gains in popular vote for second straight day, Obama keeps +160 margin in electoral vote. Obama's lead in Virginia goes over 5 percent.
Obama/Biden 349 (53.7) McCain/Palin 189 (45.3)
With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 333-169-36
Tossup States: Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia
(36 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)
Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 16th: +.4 McCain
Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 333-205 to Obama 369-169
Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158
State by State Polling: Obama 349-189
Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)
Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts
Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)
Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, California
Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)
Pennsylvania, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, Washington, Minnesota
Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)
New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio
Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)
Nevada, Missouri
Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)
North Carolina, West Virginia
Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)
Indiana, North Dakota
Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)
Georgia, Montana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona
Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)
South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas
Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)
Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah
Top 15 Turnover Targets
1. Iowa-Obama 10.2%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.5%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.2%
5. Florida-Obama 4.1%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.4%
7. Nevada-Obama 2.8%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.3%
9. North Carolina-McCain .3%
10. West Virgina-McCain 2.2%
11. Indiana-McCain 3.1%
12. New Hampshire-Obama 6.6%
13. North Dakota-McCain 8%
14. Minnesota-Obama 8.1%
15. Washington-Obama 8.7%
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