Presidential Projection 10.23.08

New Senate Rankings: +8 DEM
New House Rankings: +18 DEM
New Governor Rankings: +1 DEM

12 days until election day

McCain's lead in West Virginia moves over five points. Otherwise a rather boring day, at least from the horse race perspective.

Obama/Biden 364 (53.5) McCain/Palin 174 (45.5)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 21st: None

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 364-174

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, California, Connecticut

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Michigan, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

West Virginia, North Dakota, Georgia, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, Mississippi, South Dakota, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona, Kentucky, South Carolina

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.2%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.9%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.6%
5. Nevada-Obama 3.2%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.2%
7. Florida-Obama 2.4%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.9%
9. North Carolina-Obama 1.0%
10. Indiana-McCain 2.3%
11. West Virginia-McCain 5.3%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.1%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.8%
14. Georgia-McCain 7.5%
15. Montana-McCain 7.6%