Presidential Projection 10.24.08

Senate: +8 DEM
House: +18 DEM
Governorships: +1 DEM

9 days until election day

Race has been remarkably stable over the last week, with some minor movement in some states but that's about it.

Obama/Biden 364 (54) McCain/Palin 174 (45)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 24th: Obama +1

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, California, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Maine, Oregon, Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Texas, Arizona, Louisiana

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.7%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.8%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.4%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.7%
5. Ohio-Obama 4.7%
6. Nevada-Obama 3.3%
7. Florida-Obama 2.1%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.9%
9. North Carolina-Obama 1.1%
10. Indiana-McCain 0.4%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.5%
12. West Virginia-McCain 5.7%
13. North Dakota-McCain 5.9%
14. Montana-McCain 6.1%
15. New Hampshire-Obama 6.8%