Monday, October 20, 2008
Presidential Projection 10.20.08
15 days until election day
McCain continues to make up ground in popular vote, while electoral vote stays stable. Ohio moves to Tossup. West Virginia and Montana moves to Lean McCain.
Obama/Biden 349 (53.2) McCain/Palin 189 (45.8)
With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 318-174-46
Tossup States: Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina
(46 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)
Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 18th: +.8 McCain
Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 318-220 to Obama 364-174
Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158
State by State Polling: Obama 364-174
Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)
Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts
Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)
Rhode Island, Maryland, Illinois, Delaware, California, Connecticut
Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)
Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota
Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)
New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Nevada
Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)
Ohio, Missouri
Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)
North Carolina
Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)
Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana
Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)
Georgia, Montana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona
Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)
South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas
Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)
Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah
Top 15 Turnover Targets
1. Iowa-Obama 10.1%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.6%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.8%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.1%
5. Florida-Obama 4.0%
6. Nevada-Obama 3.3%
7. Ohio-Obama 2.9%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.7%
9. North Carolina-McCain .2%
10. Indiana-McCain 3.2%
11. West Virginia-McCain 4.3%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.2%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.5%
14. Montana-McCain 7.6% 15. Georgia-McCain 8.1%
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