House Ranking 10.30.08

House +23 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 259-176 DEM (+23 DEM)
Narrow Range: 246-189 DEM (+10 DEM) to 266-169 DEM (+30 DEM)
Wide Range: 226-209 DEM (+10 GOP) to 280-155 DEM (+44 DEM)
Pundit Spread*: +23 DEM (Cook: +20-21 DEM, CQ: +17 DEM, Sabato: +30-31 DEM, Rothenberg: +23-24 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 246-169-20 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 256-179 (+20 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 13 GOP 7
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 18 DEM 2
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 14 GOP 2
Targets in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 45 GOP 14

* Pundit Spread determined by assigning all seats to party currently favored and dividing any remaining tossups evenly between the two major parties

Switches from October 15th: +5 DEM (+6 DEM, +1 GOP)

From GOP HOLD to DEM GAIN: New Jersey 7th, New Mexico 2nd, Washington 8th, Minnesota 6th, Illinois 10th
From GOP GAIN to DEM HOLD: Alabama 5th
From DEM HOLD to GOP GAIN: Pennsylvania 11th

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM

†-December runoff currently projected

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (3)

New York 13th, New York 25th, Virginia 11th

Leans Democratic (11)

Florida 24th, Arizona 1st, Illinois 11th, Ohio 16th, Alaska At-Large, New Mexico 1st, Ohio 15th New Jersey 3rd, North Carolina 8th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Connecticut 4th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)

Florida 8th, Colorado 4th, Nevada 3rd, Michigan 9th, Washington 8th, Minnesota 6th, Michigan 7th, New York 29th, Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, New Mexico 2nd, Illinois 10th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (6)

Ohio 1st, California 4th, Idaho 1st, Louisiana 4th†, Florida 21st, New York 26th

Leans Republican (13)

Alabama 2nd, Florida 25th, Maryland 1st, Missouri 9th, Kentucky 2nd, Nebraska 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Wyoming At-Large, Arizona 3rd, Indiana 3rd, Nevada 2nd,West Virginia 2nd

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (10)

Missouri 6th, Pennsylvania 18th, South Carolina 1st, California 50th, Florida 13th, Texas 7th, New Jersey 5th, Texas 10th, Iowa 4th, Virginia 5th, Pennsylvania 15th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (8)

Illinois 6th, California 46th, California 3rd, North Carolina 5th, Pennsylvania 6th, Minnesota 2nd, Alabama 3rd, Virginia 10th

Currently Safe (136)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Likely Republican (1)

Florida 16th

Leans Republican (1)

Texas 22nd

Tilts Republican/Tossup (1)

Pennsylvania 11th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (1)

Alabama 5th

Leans Democratic (9)

Kansas 2nd, Louisiana 6th, New Hampshire 1st, Georgia 8th, Wisconsin 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, California 11th, Arizona 5th, Arizona 8th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Mississippi 1st, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 4th, Texas 23rd, Illinois 14th, Pennsylvania 12th,

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (9)

Ohio 18th, New York 24th, Kentucky 3rd, Kansas 3rd, Indiana 9th, Oregon 5th, Illinois 8th, Connecticut 5th, Minnesota 1st

Currently Safe (208)