Senate Rankings 10.15.08

Senate +8 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory needed for takeover, +1 GOP or S.Q. with McCain victory)
Projected Senate: 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: 54-45-1 DEM (+4 DEM) to 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Wide Range: 51-48-1 DEM (+1 DEM) to 62-37-1 DEM (+12 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +7 DEM (Cook: +6-7 DEM, Sabato: +6-7 DEM, CQ: +7 DEM, Rothenberg: +7-8 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 54-41-1-4 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 56-43-1 DEM (+6 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 4 GOP 0
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 4 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 12 GOP 1
Likelihood of GOP Takeover: -1,000,000,000%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority with Lieberman: 35%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority without Lieberman: 20%

Switches from October 2nd: +2 DEM

From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Minnesota, North Carolina

Safe Democratic

Virginia

Likely Democratic

New Mexico

Leans Democratic

New Hampshire, Colorado

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Oregon, Alaska, Minnesota, North Carolina

Leans Republican

Mississippi (Special), Maine, Kentucky, Georgia

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Texas

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana