House Rankings 10.23.08

House +18 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 254-181 DEM (+18 DEM)
Narrow Range: 240-195 DEM (+4 DEM) to 261-174 DEM (+25 DEM)
Wide Range: 224-211 DEM (+12 GOP) to 277-158 DEM (+41 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +17 DEM (Cook: +14-15 DEM, Sabato: +22 DEM, CQ:+12-13 DEM, Rothenberg:+18-19 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 240-174-21 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 250-185 DEM (+14 DEM) to 251-184 DEM (+15 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 14 GOP 7
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 17 DEM 4
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 9 GOP 1
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 42 GOP 14

Switches from October 15th: +4 DEM

From GOP HOLD to DEM GAIN: Florida 24th, Florida 8th, Connecticut 4th, Michigan 9th

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (2)

New York 13th, New York 25th

Leans Democratic (7)

Arizona 1st, Virginia 11th, Illinois 11th, Ohio 16th, Florida 24th, Alaska At-Large, New Mexico 1st

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)

New Jersey 3rd, North Carolina 8th, Minnesota 3rd, Florida 8th, Nevada 3rd, Pennsylvania 3rd, Colorado 4th, Ohio 15th, Michigan 7th, Connecticut 4th, New York 29th, Michigan 9th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (5)

Ohio 1st, New Jersey 7th, New Mexico 2nd, Washington 8th, Louisiana 4th

Leans Republican (16)

Missouri 9th, California 4th, Illinois 10th, New York 26th, Florida 21st, Florida 25th, Maryland 1st, Minnesota 6th, Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd, Kentucky 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Missouri 6th, Virginia 2nd, Wyoming At-Large, Arizona 3rd

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (10)

Nebraska 2nd, Nevada 2nd, West Virginia 2nd, South Carolina 1st, California 50th, Florida 13th, Indiana 3rd, Texas 7th, New Jersey 5th, Pennsylvania 5th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (10)

Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, California 46th, Virginia 5th, California 3rd, Texas 10th, Pennsylvania 6th, Iowa 4th, North Carolina 10th, Minnesota 2nd

Currently Safe (137)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Likely Republican (1)

Florida 16th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)

Texas 22nd, Alabama 5th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (2)

Pennsylvania 11th, New Hampshire 1st

Leans Democratic (9)

Louisiana 6th, Kansas 2nd, Georgia 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, Mississippi 1st, Wisconsin 8th, California 11th, Arizona 5th, Arizona 8th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (5)

Kentucky 3rd, Pennsylvania 4th, New York 20th, Texas 23rd, Illinios 14th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (8)

Ohio 18th, Kansas 3rd, New York 24th, Indiana 9th, Oregon 5th, Illinois 8th, Connecticut 5th, Minnesota 1st

Currently Safe (209)