Presidential Projection 10.31.08

Senate: +8 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
House: +23 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
Governorships: +1 DEM

4 days until Election Day


Obama/Biden 364 (52.8) McCain/Palin 174 (46.2)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 30th: None

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Illinois, Massachusetts, Delaware, California

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Washington, Maine

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, New Mexico

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Arizona

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, South Carolina, Kentucky

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Nebraska, Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 11.6%
2. New Mexico-Obama 8.4%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.8%
4. Virginia-Obama 6.1
5. Nevada-Obama 5.0%
6. Ohio-Obama 4.5%
7. Florida-Obama 2.6%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.3%
9. North Carolina-Obama 0.7%
10. Indiana-McCain 1.1%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.4%
12. Montana-McCain 5.6%
13. North Dakota-McCain 5.9%
14. West Virginia-McCain 6.1%
15. Arizona-McCain 6.6%