Presidential Projection 10.18.08

17 days until election day

McCain gains in popular vote for third straight day, Obama keeps +160 margin in electoral vote. Nevada moves to Leans Obama.

Obama/Biden 349 (53.6) McCain/Palin 189 (45.4)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 338-169-31

Tossup States: Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia
(31 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 17th: +.2 McCain

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 338-200 to Obama 369-169

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 349-189

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Pennsylvania, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, Washington, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

North Carolina, West Virginia

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Indiana, North Dakota

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Georgia, Montana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.2%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.5%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.2%
5. Florida-Obama 4.1%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.4%
7. Nevada-Obama 3.4%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.7%
9. North Carolina-McCain .3%
10. West Virgina-McCain 2.2%
11. Indiana-McCain 3.1%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.1%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.6%
14. Georgia-McCain 8%
15. Minnesota-Obama 8.1%