Presidential Projection 10.14.08

3 weeks until Election Day

Obama/Biden 349 (53.7) McCain/Palin 189 (45.3)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 313-169-56

Tossup States: Ohio, Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia
(Bush EV's 56, Kerry EV's 0)

Switches from October 4th: +11 Obama

From McCain to Obama: Missouri

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 4th: +1.6 Obama

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 313-225 to Obama 369-169

Medium Range (States within 5 points): McCain 274-264 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 349-189

The liveblog for the Canadian Election starts at 9:00 PM here

Some quick bookkeeping. First, starting today I will be updating the presidential numbers everyday, generally very late in the evening/very early in the morning. Also, I have expanded the the tossup classification from any race within two points, to any within three as two points simply no longer strikes me as a secure enough of a lead to designate the race as leaning. Finally I have adjusted the projection formula to place a heavier weight on state polling numbers, in an attempt to keep 2004 results from contradicting a potential solid lead in current polling. This change helps Obama in North Carolina and McCain in Michigan and Minnesota, although not enough to change any state's classification. (This is what I get for devising a presidential projection formula and rating system on the fly. Three weeks before election day I feel the urge to make seemingly random tweaks in an spasm of neurotic second guessing.)

State by State Projections

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%) (41)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%) (112)

Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%) (65)

Pennsylvania, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, Maine, Washington

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%) (105)

Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Colorado

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%) (36)

Ohio, Nevada, Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%) (20)

North Carolina, West Virginia

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%) (11)

Indiana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%) (86)

North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%) (39)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20+%) (33)

Nebraska, Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top Fifteen Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.2% (1)
2. New Mexico-Obama 6.9% (2)
3. Virginia-Obama 4.6% (4)
4. Florida-Obama 4.6% (6)
5. Colorado-Obama 4.3% (3)
6. Ohio-Obama 2.9% (7)
7. Nevada-Obama 2.6% (5)
8. Missouri-Obama .9% (8)
9. North Carolina-McCain .1% (9)
10. West Virginia-McCain 2.2% (NR)
11. Indiana-McCain 3.1% (11)
12. New Hampshire-Obama 6.6% (10)
13. Michigan-Obama 6.9% (14)
14. Minnesota-Obama 6.9% (12)
15. Wisconsin-Obama 7.7% (13)

Dropping Out: Pennsylvania (15)