Presidential Projection 10.27.08

Senate: +8 DEM
House: +18 DEM
Governorships: +1 DEM

8 days until election day

New Hampshire and New Mexico turn a darker hue of blue moving to Likely Obama. Obama losing ground in early morning trackers (which will be added in tomorrow's projection).

Obama/Biden 364 (53.8) McCain/Palin 174 (45.2)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 26th: McCain +.4

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, California, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Maine, Oregon, Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Texas, Arizona, Louisiana

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.9%
2. New Mexico-Obama 8.0%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.6%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.5%
5. Ohio-Obama 4.9%
6. Nevada-Obama 3.5%
7. Florida-Obama 2.3%
8. Missouri-Obama 2.1%
9. North Carolina-Obama 1.5%
10. Indiana-McCain 0.2%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.3%
12. West Virginia-McCain 5.6%
13. North Dakota-McCain 5.7%
14. Montana-McCain 5.9%
15. New Hampshire-Obama 8.5%