Monday, October 27, 2008
Presidential Projection 10.27.08
Senate: +8 DEM
House: +18 DEM
Governorships: +1 DEM
8 days until election day
New Hampshire and New Mexico turn a darker hue of blue moving to Likely Obama. Obama losing ground in early morning trackers (which will be added in tomorrow's projection).
Obama/Biden 364 (53.8) McCain/Palin 174 (45.2)
With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64
Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana
(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)
Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 26th: McCain +.4
Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163
Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163
State by State Polling: Obama 375-163
Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)
Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts
Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)
Rhode Island, California, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey
Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)
Maine, Oregon, Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico
Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)
Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada
Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)
Florida, Missouri, North Carolina
Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)
Indiana
Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)
Georgia, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana
Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)
Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Texas, Arizona, Louisiana
Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)
Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska
Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)
Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah
Top 15 Turnover Targets
1. Iowa-Obama 10.9%
2. New Mexico-Obama 8.0%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.6%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.5%
5. Ohio-Obama 4.9%
6. Nevada-Obama 3.5%
7. Florida-Obama 2.3%
8. Missouri-Obama 2.1%
9. North Carolina-Obama 1.5%
10. Indiana-McCain 0.2%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.3%
12. West Virginia-McCain 5.6%
13. North Dakota-McCain 5.7%
14. Montana-McCain 5.9%
15. New Hampshire-Obama 8.5%
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