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Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 247-188 DEM (+11 DEM)
Narrow Range: 239-196 DEM (+3 DEM) to 255-180 DEM (+19 DEM)
Wide Range: 218-217 GOP (+19 GOP) to 274-161 DEM (+38 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +9-10 DEM (Cook: +10-11 DEM, CQ: +8-9 DEM, Sabato: +9-10 DEM, Rothenberg: +10 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 239-180-16 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 247-188 DEM
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 8 GOP 8
Current Tossup Defending Split: DEM 4 GOP 12
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better) DEM 7 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse) DEM 38 GOP 20
Likelihood of Turnover: 1%
Switches from September 20th: +4 DEM
From GOP Gain to DEM Hold: Louisiana 6th
From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Ohio 16th, Nevada 3rd, Connecticut 4th
Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM
Republican Defenses (199)
Likely Democratic (1)
New York 13th
Leans Democratic (6)
New York 25th, Illinois 11th, Alaska AL, Arizona 1st, Virginia 11th, New Jersey 3rd
Tilts Democratic/Tossup (6)
New Jersey 7th, Ohio 16th, New Mexico 1st, Ohio 15th, Nevada 3rd, Connecticut 4th
Tilts Republican/Tossup (6)
Minnesota 3rd, Colorado 4th, Washington 8th, Michigan 7th, Florida 24th, Louisiana 4th
Leans Republican (19)
New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Florida 21st, North Carolina 8th, New Mexico 2nd, Pennsylvania 3rd, Michigan 9th, New York 26th, Alabama 2nd, Illinois 10th, Missouri 6th, Florida 8th, Missouri 9th, California 4th, Virginia 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Florida 25th, Florida 13th, Maryland 1st
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (7)
West Virginia 2nd, Idaho 1st, Kentucky 2nd, Nevada 2nd, Pennsylvania 6th, Wyoming At-Large, Pennsylvania 15th
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (10)
Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, New Jersey 5th, Minnesota 6th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Texas 10th, Texas 7th, Minnesota 2nd, Virginia 10th
Currently Safe (144)
Democratic Defenses (236)
Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)
Texas 22nd, Alabama 5th
Tilts Democratic/Tossup (2)
Louisiana 6th, Kansas 2nd
Leans Democratic (16)
New Hampshire 1st, Pennsylvania 11th, Pennsylvania 10th, California 11th, Georgia 8th, Florida 16th, Pennsylvania 4th, Wisconsin 8th, Mississippi 1st, Arizona 8th, Illinois 14th, Kentucky 3rd, Indiana 9th, Oregon 5th, New York 20th, Arizona 5th
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (4)
Kansas 3rd, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Connecticut 5th
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (8)
Ohio 18th, New York 24th, Georgia 12th, Pennsylvania 8th, Minnesota 1st, New Hampshire 2nd, Indiana 8th, New York 19th
Currently Safe (204)
(Newly Expanded)Top 50 House Turnover Targets
1. New York 13th
2. New York 25th
3. Illinois 11th
4. Alaska AL
5. Arizona 1st
6. Virginia 11th
7. New Jersey 3rd
8. New Jersey 7th
9. Texas 22nd
10. Ohio 16th
11. New Mexico 1st
12. Ohio 15th
13. Nevada 3rd
14. Alabama 5th
15. Connecticut 4th
16. Minnesota 3rd
17. Louisiana 6th
18. Colorado 4th
19. Washington 8th
20. Kansas 2nd
21. Michigan 7th
22. Florida 24th
23. Louisiana 4th
24. New Hampshire 1st
25. New York 29th
26. Ohio 1st
27. Pennsylvania 11th
28. Florida 21st
29. Pennsylvania 10th
30. California 11th
31. Georgia 8th
32. North Carolina 8th
33. Florida 16th
34. Pennsylvania 3rd
35. New Mexico 2nd
36. Wisconsin 8th
37. Pennsylvania 4th
38. Mississippi 1st
39. Michigan 9th
40. Arizona 8th
41. New York 26th
42. Alabama 2nd
43. Illinois 10th
44. Missouri 6th
45. Florida 8th
46. Illinois 14th
47. Kentucky 3rd
48. Missouri 9th
49. Indiana 9th
50. California 4th
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