Senate Rankings 10.2.08

Senate +6 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory, S.Q. or +1 GOP, depending on Lieberman, with McCain victory needed for GOP takeover)
Projected Senate: 56-43-1 DEM (+6 DEM)
Narrow Range: 54-45-1 DEM (+4 DEM) to 57-42-1 DEM (+7 DEM)
Wide Range: 51-48-1 DEM (+1 DEM) to 61-38-1 DEM (+11 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +6 DEM (Cook: +6 DEM, Sabato: +6 DEM, CQ: +6 DEM, Rothenberg: +6-7 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 54-42-1-3 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM) or 56-43-1 DEM (+6 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 2 GOP 1
Current Tossup Defending Split: DEM 0 GOP 3
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 4 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 11 GOP 1
Likelihood of Turnover: Naught, Nada, Nil, Nothing

Switches from September 21st: +1 DEM

From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Oregon

Republican Defenses

Safe Democratic

Virginia

Likely Democratic

New Mexico

Leans Democratic

Colorado, New Hampshire

Tilts Democratic

Alaska, Oregon

Tilts Republican

North Carolina

Leans Republican

Minnesota, Mississippi (Special), Maine, Kentucky

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

New Jersey

Top 10 Senate Turnover Targets

1. Virginia (1)
2. New Mexico (2)
3. Colorado (4)
4. New Hampshire (3)
5. Alaska (5)
6. Oregon (6)
7. North Carolina (9)
8. Minnesota (7)
9. Louisiana (8)
10. Mississippi (Special) (10)

Dropping Out: None