Posts
Obama/Biden 338 (52.8) McCain/Palin 200 (46.2)
With Tossups: Obama 286-200-52
Switches from October 2nd: None
Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 2nd: None
Narrow Range: Obama 286-252 to Obama 338-200
Medium Range: Draw 269-269 to Obama 349-189
Wide Range: McCain 341-197 to Obama 380-158
State by State Polling Only: Obama 338-200
State by State Projection
Safe Obama (14)
Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, Rhode Island
Solid Obama (139)
Massachusetts, Illinois, New York, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, California
Likely Obama (44)
Maine, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, Iowa
Leans Obama (96)
Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia
Tilts Obama (52)
Nevada, Florida, Ohio
Tilts McCain (0)
Leans McCain (42)
Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia
Likely McCain (80)
Arkansas, Montana, Georgia, Louisiana, North Dakota, Texas, Arizona
Solid McCain (42)
Mississippi, Tennessee, South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Kansas
Safe McCain (36)
Alaska, Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah
(New and Expanded) Top Fifteen Turnover Targets
1. Iowa-Obama 8.3%
2. New Mexico-Obama 6.1%
3. Colorado-Obama 2.8%
4. Virginia-Obama 2.4%
5. Nevada-Obama 1.6%
6. Florida-Obama 1.4%
7. Ohio-Obama 1.4%
8. Missouri- McCain 2.6%
9. North Carolina-McCain 4%
10. New Hampshire-Obama 4.3%
11. Indiana-McCain 4.8%
12. Minnesota-Obama 5.1%
13. Wisconsin-Obama 5.4%
14. Michigan-Obama 5.9%
15. Pennsylvania-Obama 6.2%
2 comments:
Mike- on your "leans Obama" status for Virginia, I've heard that Liberty University is making a big push to its students to register to vote here in VA rather than absentee wherever they're from. Given they've got around 10K students, the university is hoping they'll have enough pull to sway the entire state to McCain. I wasn't sure if anyone's had a way to poll on that kind of thing.
Anyways, glad to see you're still having fun with the politics (or letting it drive you insane)!
~Susan
Hi Susan
Sorry for the long delay in responding to your comment but I did not even realize you had left one until I went through and checked manually (guess that removing moderation some how removed notification as well). Although to be fair, I have been bad about responding in general as of late.
To answer your question, I do not believe that any of the major pollsters in Virginia have any particular way to compensate for absentee voters, outside of asking what state someone is planning to vote in and if they have voted already. Although most pollsters have, a hard enough time getting data on college students to begin with as most use cell phones as their major source of communication and (at least I think) that calling cell phones for polling purposes is illegal in some states. However, for once I am not particularly worried for three major reasons.
1.These voter registration drives never seem to work, at least not in the numbers promised. Granted, I can believe that the students at Liberty will be more disciplined that those at Kent State, where I worked on a similar drive in 2004. Still getting even half of the students, especially freshman and those who still relate to their home areas as part of their identities, to switch their registration will be a tall order even at Liberty. On the flip side, enough of those students are probably registered in Virginia already (and presumably would have voted for McCain regardless) thereby reducing the overall net gain to at the most 8,000 votes and probably closer to 3,000.
2.Obama's campaign is doing the same thing at UVA, VCU (and presumably other state schools). Even if Liberty is able to fully mobilize, UVA has 20,000 students and VCU 32,000, enough to be able to a negate a large portion of Liberty’s new votes, even if the Obama drives in Charlottesville and Richmond ultimately fall short of the McCain one in Lynchburg.
3. 10,000 votes probably will not be enough to swing the state. Right now I have Obama winning Virginia by 5 points while according to other polling averages his lead is anywhere from 3 to 6 points. Assuming that turnout is around 3.2 million people (roughly 2004 levels), this means that Obama should hold a lead of approximately 90,000 to 190,000 votes. (By my current numbers showing a 5% lead, he has around a 160,000-vote cushion, and using the October 4th numbers showing a 2.4% lead, he should have held about a 75,000 vote advantage) So even if every single student at Liberty votes for McCain in Virginia and not a single one was going to do so before mobilization, the overall swing would be about .34% not nearly enough to overcome even the narrowest projected lead at the moment. (Although of course being a history person my math might be on the fuzzy side)
Of course, if this race narrows Liberty (and it's Ohio, Colorado and Florida equivalents) will start to worry me a lot more. However, for once I am actually feeling optimistic about our chances in a presidential election. Come to think of it, this optimism might be a bad sign. ☺
Anyway, I hope things are going well in Richmond and I’ll talk to you later.
Mike
Post a Comment