Presidential Projection 11.1.08

Senate: +8 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
House: +23 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
Governorships: +1 DEM

3 days until Election Day

Slight widening for Obama in the national vote. Obama's lead in Nevada goes (ever so slightly) over five points. McCain's margin in three states (Arizona, Georgia and Montana) falls below that same threshold. Pennsylvania now McCain's best Kerry state but Obama still currently favored to win by nine points.

Obama/Biden 364 (53.1) McCain/Palin 174 (45.9)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 31st: Obama +.6

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 291-247 to Obama 403-135

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Illinois, Massachusetts, Delaware, California

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington, Maine

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, North Carolina, Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Arizona, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, South Carolina, Kentucky

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Nebraska, Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 11.9%
2. New Mexico-Obama 10.3%
3. Colorado-Obama 7.2%
4. Virginia-Obama 6.2%
5. Nevada-Obama 5.0% (5.03)
6. Ohio-Obama 4.6%
7. Florida-Obama 2.6%
8. North Carolina-Obama .9%
9. Missouri-Obama .6%
10. Indiana-McCain .9%
11. Arizona-McCain 4.9%
12. Georgia-McCain 4.9%
13. Montana-McCain 5.0% (4.95)
14. North Dakota-McCain 5.1%
15. West Virginia-McCain 7.3%