Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Presidential Projection 10.22.08



13 days until election day


Obama gains in popular vote, breaking six day trend towards McCain. Indiana moves into tossup. Ohio moves back to Leans Obama.

Obama/Biden 364 (53.5)
McCain/Palin 174 (45.5)


With Tossups Unassigned
: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana
(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 21st
: +.8 Obama

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 364-174

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, California, Connecticut

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Michigan, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)


West Virginia, North Dakota, Georgia, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, Kentucky, South Dakota, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)


Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.2%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.9%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.6%
5. Nevada-Obama 3.0%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.0%
7. Florida-Obama 2.8%

8. Missouri-Obama 1.9%
9. North Carolina-Obama 0.7%
10. Indiana-McCain 2.3%
11. West Virginia-McCain 4.9%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.1%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.8%
14. Georgia-McCain 7.5%
15. Montana-McCain 7.6%

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

So, at this point are you just posting every day until the election or what?

Michael said...

Pretty much. Usually around one but sometimes as late as ten the next morning. With Senate and House updates every Thursday, until the big election night preview on November 3rd.