Presidential Projection 10.31.08

Senate: +8 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
House: +23 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
Governorships: +1 DEM

4 days until Election Day


Obama/Biden 364 (52.8) McCain/Palin 174 (46.2)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 30th: None

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Illinois, Massachusetts, Delaware, California

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Washington, Maine

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, New Mexico

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Arizona

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, South Carolina, Kentucky

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Nebraska, Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 11.6%
2. New Mexico-Obama 8.4%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.8%
4. Virginia-Obama 6.1
5. Nevada-Obama 5.0%
6. Ohio-Obama 4.5%
7. Florida-Obama 2.6%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.3%
9. North Carolina-Obama 0.7%
10. Indiana-McCain 1.1%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.4%
12. Montana-McCain 5.6%
13. North Dakota-McCain 5.9%
14. West Virginia-McCain 6.1%
15. Arizona-McCain 6.6%

Senate Rankings 10.30.08

Senate +8 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory needed for takeover, +1 GOP or S.Q. with McCain victory)
Projected Senate: 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM) to 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Wide Range: 51-48-1 DEM (+1 DEM) to 62-37-1 DEM (+12 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +7 DEM (Cook: +7 DEM, Sabato: +7 DEM, CQ: +7 DEM, Rothenberg: +7-8 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 56-41-1-2 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 57-42-1 (+7 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 2 GOP 0
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 2 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 6 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 12 GOP 1
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority with Lieberman: 25%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority without Lieberman: 10%

Switches from October 23rd: None

†-December runoff currently projected

Safe Democratic

Virginia

Likely Democratic

New Mexico

Leans Democratic

Colorado, New Hampshire, Oregon, Alaska

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

North Carolina, Minnesota

Leans Republican

Georgia†, Mississippi (Special), Kentucky, Maine

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

House Ranking 10.30.08

House +23 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 259-176 DEM (+23 DEM)
Narrow Range: 246-189 DEM (+10 DEM) to 266-169 DEM (+30 DEM)
Wide Range: 226-209 DEM (+10 GOP) to 280-155 DEM (+44 DEM)
Pundit Spread*: +23 DEM (Cook: +20-21 DEM, CQ: +17 DEM, Sabato: +30-31 DEM, Rothenberg: +23-24 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 246-169-20 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 256-179 (+20 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 13 GOP 7
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 18 DEM 2
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 14 GOP 2
Targets in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 45 GOP 14

* Pundit Spread determined by assigning all seats to party currently favored and dividing any remaining tossups evenly between the two major parties

Switches from October 15th: +5 DEM (+6 DEM, +1 GOP)

From GOP HOLD to DEM GAIN: New Jersey 7th, New Mexico 2nd, Washington 8th, Minnesota 6th, Illinois 10th
From GOP GAIN to DEM HOLD: Alabama 5th
From DEM HOLD to GOP GAIN: Pennsylvania 11th

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM

†-December runoff currently projected

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (3)

New York 13th, New York 25th, Virginia 11th

Leans Democratic (11)

Florida 24th, Arizona 1st, Illinois 11th, Ohio 16th, Alaska At-Large, New Mexico 1st, Ohio 15th New Jersey 3rd, North Carolina 8th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Connecticut 4th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)

Florida 8th, Colorado 4th, Nevada 3rd, Michigan 9th, Washington 8th, Minnesota 6th, Michigan 7th, New York 29th, Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, New Mexico 2nd, Illinois 10th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (6)

Ohio 1st, California 4th, Idaho 1st, Louisiana 4th†, Florida 21st, New York 26th

Leans Republican (13)

Alabama 2nd, Florida 25th, Maryland 1st, Missouri 9th, Kentucky 2nd, Nebraska 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Wyoming At-Large, Arizona 3rd, Indiana 3rd, Nevada 2nd,West Virginia 2nd

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (10)

Missouri 6th, Pennsylvania 18th, South Carolina 1st, California 50th, Florida 13th, Texas 7th, New Jersey 5th, Texas 10th, Iowa 4th, Virginia 5th, Pennsylvania 15th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (8)

Illinois 6th, California 46th, California 3rd, North Carolina 5th, Pennsylvania 6th, Minnesota 2nd, Alabama 3rd, Virginia 10th

Currently Safe (136)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Likely Republican (1)

Florida 16th

Leans Republican (1)

Texas 22nd

Tilts Republican/Tossup (1)

Pennsylvania 11th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (1)

Alabama 5th

Leans Democratic (9)

Kansas 2nd, Louisiana 6th, New Hampshire 1st, Georgia 8th, Wisconsin 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, California 11th, Arizona 5th, Arizona 8th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Mississippi 1st, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 4th, Texas 23rd, Illinois 14th, Pennsylvania 12th,

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (9)

Ohio 18th, New York 24th, Kentucky 3rd, Kansas 3rd, Indiana 9th, Oregon 5th, Illinois 8th, Connecticut 5th, Minnesota 1st

Currently Safe (208)

Presidential Projection 10.30.08

Senate: +8 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
House: +23 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
Governorships: +1 DEM

5 days until Election Day

McCain closes to within seven in the national margin. Obama surges in the southwest as New Mexico turns dark blue for the second time this week and Arizona changes to a pinkish shade. New Congressional Ratings will be out sometime this afternoon.

Obama/Biden 364 (52.8) McCain/Palin 174 (46.2)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 28th: McCain +1.2

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Illinois, Delaware

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

California, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Washington, Maine

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Mexico

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Arizona

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana, Kentucky

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Nebraska, Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.9%
2. New Mexico-Obama 8.4%
3. Virginia-Obama 6.6%
4. Colorado-Obama 6.4%
5. Nevada-Obama 4.9%
6. Ohio-Obama 4.4%
7. Florida-Obama 2.6%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.3%
9. North Carolina-Obama 0.2%
10. Indiana-McCain 1.o%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.4%
12. Montana-McCain 5.9%
13. North Dakota-McCain 5.9%
14. West Virginia-McCain 6.1%
15. Arizona-McCain 7.3%

Presidential Projection 10.28.08

Senate: +8 DEM
House: +18 DEM
Governorships: +1 DEM

1 week until Election Day

New Mexico returns to a light shade of blue, moving back to Leans Obama after one day in the likely column.

Obama/Biden 364 (53.4) McCain/Palin 174 (45.6)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 27th: McCain +.8

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Illinois

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

California, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Oregon

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Maine, Washington, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arizona, Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana, Kentucky

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 11.1%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.9%
3. Virginia-Obama 6.5%
4. Colorado-Obama 6.2%
5. Ohio-Obama 4.2%
6. Nevada-Obama 3.6%
7. Florida-Obama 2.4%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.5%
9. North Carolina-Obama 0.5%
10. Indiana-McCain 0.7%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.4%
12. North Dakota-McCain 5.8%
13. West Virginia-McCain 5.9%
14. Montana-McCain 6.0%
15. Arizona-McCain 8.2%

Presidential Projection 10.27.08

Senate: +8 DEM
House: +18 DEM
Governorships: +1 DEM

8 days until election day

New Hampshire and New Mexico turn a darker hue of blue moving to Likely Obama. Obama losing ground in early morning trackers (which will be added in tomorrow's projection).

Obama/Biden 364 (53.8) McCain/Palin 174 (45.2)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 26th: McCain +.4

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, California, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Maine, Oregon, Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Texas, Arizona, Louisiana

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.9%
2. New Mexico-Obama 8.0%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.6%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.5%
5. Ohio-Obama 4.9%
6. Nevada-Obama 3.5%
7. Florida-Obama 2.3%
8. Missouri-Obama 2.1%
9. North Carolina-Obama 1.5%
10. Indiana-McCain 0.2%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.3%
12. West Virginia-McCain 5.6%
13. North Dakota-McCain 5.7%
14. Montana-McCain 5.9%
15. New Hampshire-Obama 8.5%

Presidential Projection 10.24.08

Senate: +8 DEM
House: +18 DEM
Governorships: +1 DEM

9 days until election day

Race has been remarkably stable over the last week, with some minor movement in some states but that's about it.

Obama/Biden 364 (54) McCain/Palin 174 (45)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 24th: Obama +1

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, California, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Maine, Oregon, Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Texas, Arizona, Louisiana

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.7%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.8%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.4%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.7%
5. Ohio-Obama 4.7%
6. Nevada-Obama 3.3%
7. Florida-Obama 2.1%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.9%
9. North Carolina-Obama 1.1%
10. Indiana-McCain 0.4%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.5%
12. West Virginia-McCain 5.7%
13. North Dakota-McCain 5.9%
14. Montana-McCain 6.1%
15. New Hampshire-Obama 6.8%

Presidential Projection 10.23.08

New Senate Rankings: +8 DEM
New House Rankings: +18 DEM
New Governor Rankings: +1 DEM

12 days until election day

McCain's lead in West Virginia moves over five points. Otherwise a rather boring day, at least from the horse race perspective.

Obama/Biden 364 (53.5) McCain/Palin 174 (45.5)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 21st: None

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 364-174

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, California, Connecticut

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Michigan, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

West Virginia, North Dakota, Georgia, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, Mississippi, South Dakota, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona, Kentucky, South Carolina

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.2%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.9%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.6%
5. Nevada-Obama 3.2%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.2%
7. Florida-Obama 2.4%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.9%
9. North Carolina-Obama 1.0%
10. Indiana-McCain 2.3%
11. West Virginia-McCain 5.3%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.1%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.8%
14. Georgia-McCain 7.5%
15. Montana-McCain 7.6%

Governor Rankings 10.23.08

Governors: +1 DEM

Current Governorships: 28-22 DEM (+4 GOP needed to have a majority of governorships)
Projected Governorships: 29-21 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 28-22 DEM (S.Q.) to 29-21 DEM (+1 DEM)
Wide Range: 26-24 DEM (+2 GOP) to 29-21 DEM (+1 DEM)
Pundit Spread: Status Quo (Cook: S.Q., Sabato: S.Q., CQ: +1 DEM, Rothenberg: S.Q.
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%

Switches since July 23rd: None

Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic

Missouri

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Indiana, Vermont

Democratic Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

North Carolina

Leans Democratic

Washington

House Rankings 10.23.08

House +18 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 254-181 DEM (+18 DEM)
Narrow Range: 240-195 DEM (+4 DEM) to 261-174 DEM (+25 DEM)
Wide Range: 224-211 DEM (+12 GOP) to 277-158 DEM (+41 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +17 DEM (Cook: +14-15 DEM, Sabato: +22 DEM, CQ:+12-13 DEM, Rothenberg:+18-19 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 240-174-21 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 250-185 DEM (+14 DEM) to 251-184 DEM (+15 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 14 GOP 7
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 17 DEM 4
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 9 GOP 1
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 42 GOP 14

Switches from October 15th: +4 DEM

From GOP HOLD to DEM GAIN: Florida 24th, Florida 8th, Connecticut 4th, Michigan 9th

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (2)

New York 13th, New York 25th

Leans Democratic (7)

Arizona 1st, Virginia 11th, Illinois 11th, Ohio 16th, Florida 24th, Alaska At-Large, New Mexico 1st

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)

New Jersey 3rd, North Carolina 8th, Minnesota 3rd, Florida 8th, Nevada 3rd, Pennsylvania 3rd, Colorado 4th, Ohio 15th, Michigan 7th, Connecticut 4th, New York 29th, Michigan 9th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (5)

Ohio 1st, New Jersey 7th, New Mexico 2nd, Washington 8th, Louisiana 4th

Leans Republican (16)

Missouri 9th, California 4th, Illinois 10th, New York 26th, Florida 21st, Florida 25th, Maryland 1st, Minnesota 6th, Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd, Kentucky 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Missouri 6th, Virginia 2nd, Wyoming At-Large, Arizona 3rd

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (10)

Nebraska 2nd, Nevada 2nd, West Virginia 2nd, South Carolina 1st, California 50th, Florida 13th, Indiana 3rd, Texas 7th, New Jersey 5th, Pennsylvania 5th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (10)

Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, California 46th, Virginia 5th, California 3rd, Texas 10th, Pennsylvania 6th, Iowa 4th, North Carolina 10th, Minnesota 2nd

Currently Safe (137)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Likely Republican (1)

Florida 16th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)

Texas 22nd, Alabama 5th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (2)

Pennsylvania 11th, New Hampshire 1st

Leans Democratic (9)

Louisiana 6th, Kansas 2nd, Georgia 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, Mississippi 1st, Wisconsin 8th, California 11th, Arizona 5th, Arizona 8th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (5)

Kentucky 3rd, Pennsylvania 4th, New York 20th, Texas 23rd, Illinios 14th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (8)

Ohio 18th, Kansas 3rd, New York 24th, Indiana 9th, Oregon 5th, Illinois 8th, Connecticut 5th, Minnesota 1st

Currently Safe (209)

Senate Rankings 10.23.08

Senate +8 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory needed for takeover, +1 GOP or S.Q. with McCain victory)
Projected Senate: 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM) to 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Wide Range: 51-48-1 DEM (+1 DEM) to 62-37-1 DEM (+12 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +7-8 DEM (Cook: +7 DEM, Sabato: +7-8DEM, CQ: +7 DEM, Rothenberg: +7-8 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 55-41-1-3 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 56-43-1 DEM (+6 DEM) or 57-42-1 (+7 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 3 GOP 0
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 3 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 5 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 12 GOP 1
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority with Lieberman: 35%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority without Lieberman: 20%

Switches from October 15th: None

Safe Democratic

Virginia

Likely Democratic

New Mexico

Leans Democratic

New Hampshire, Colorado, Oregon

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

North Carolina, Minnesota, Alaska

Leans Republican

Mississippi (Special), Georgia, Kentucky, Maine

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Texas

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

Presidential Projection 10.22.08

13 days until election day

Obama gains in popular vote, breaking six day trend towards McCain. Indiana moves into tossup. Ohio moves back to Leans Obama.

Obama/Biden 364 (53.5) McCain/Palin 174 (45.5)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana
(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 21st: +.8 Obama

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 364-174

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, California, Connecticut

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Michigan, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

West Virginia, North Dakota, Georgia, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, Kentucky, South Dakota, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.2%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.9%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.6%
5. Nevada-Obama 3.0%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.0%
7. Florida-Obama 2.8%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.9%
9. North Carolina-Obama 0.7%
10. Indiana-McCain 2.3%
11. West Virginia-McCain 4.9%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.1%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.8%
14. Georgia-McCain 7.5%
15. Montana-McCain 7.6%

Presidential Projection 10.21.08

2 weeks until election day

North Carolina turns Tarheel Blue. Florida moves to tossup. Georgia comes into play. McCain gains in popular vote for the sixth straight day (and fifth straight projection).

Obama/Biden 364 (53.1) McCain/Palin 174 (45.9)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 291-174-73

Tossup States: Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina
(73 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 20th: +.2 McCain

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 291-247 to Obama 364-174

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 364-174

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Maryland, Illinois, Delaware, California, Connecticut

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Georgia, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.1%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.6%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.0%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.5%
5. Nevada-Obama 3.3%
6. Florida-Obama 2.9%
7. Ohio-Obama 2.9%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.8%
9. North Carolina-Obama 1.0%
10. Indiana-McCain 3.2%
11. West Virginia-McCain 4.3%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.2%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.7%
14. Georgia-McCain 7.6%
15. Montana-McCain 7.7%

Presidential Projection 10.20.08

15 days until election day

McCain continues to make up ground in popular vote, while electoral vote stays stable. Ohio moves to Tossup. West Virginia and Montana moves to Lean McCain.

Obama/Biden 349 (53.2) McCain/Palin 189 (45.8)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 318-174-46

Tossup States: Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina
(46 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 18th: +.8 McCain

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 318-220 to Obama 364-174

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 364-174

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Maryland, Illinois, Delaware, California, Connecticut

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Ohio, Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

North Carolina

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Georgia, Montana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.1%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.6%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.8%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.1%
5. Florida-Obama 4.0%
6. Nevada-Obama 3.3%
7. Ohio-Obama 2.9%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.7%
9. North Carolina-McCain .2%
10. Indiana-McCain 3.2%
11. West Virginia-McCain 4.3%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.2%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.5%
14. Montana-McCain 7.6% 15. Georgia-McCain 8.1%

Presidential Projection 10.18.08

17 days until election day

McCain gains in popular vote for third straight day, Obama keeps +160 margin in electoral vote. Nevada moves to Leans Obama.

Obama/Biden 349 (53.6) McCain/Palin 189 (45.4)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 338-169-31

Tossup States: Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia
(31 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 17th: +.2 McCain

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 338-200 to Obama 369-169

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 349-189

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Pennsylvania, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, Washington, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

North Carolina, West Virginia

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Indiana, North Dakota

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Georgia, Montana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.2%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.5%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.2%
5. Florida-Obama 4.1%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.4%
7. Nevada-Obama 3.4%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.7%
9. North Carolina-McCain .3%
10. West Virgina-McCain 2.2%
11. Indiana-McCain 3.1%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.1%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.6%
14. Georgia-McCain 8%
15. Minnesota-Obama 8.1%

Presidential Projection 10.17.08

18 days until election day

McCain gains in popular vote for second straight day, Obama keeps +160 margin in electoral vote. Obama's lead in Virginia goes over 5 percent.

Obama/Biden 349 (53.7) McCain/Palin 189 (45.3)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 333-169-36

Tossup States: Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia
(36 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 16th: +.4 McCain

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 333-205 to Obama 369-169

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 349-189

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Pennsylvania, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, Washington, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Nevada, Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

North Carolina, West Virginia

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Indiana, North Dakota

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Georgia, Montana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.2%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.5%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.2%
5. Florida-Obama 4.1%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.4%
7. Nevada-Obama 2.8%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.3%
9. North Carolina-McCain .3%
10. West Virgina-McCain 2.2%
11. Indiana-McCain 3.1%
12. New Hampshire-Obama 6.6%
13. North Dakota-McCain 8%
14. Minnesota-Obama 8.1%
15. Washington-Obama 8.7%

Presidential Projection 10.16.08

19 days until election day

North Dakota Moves Into Play

Obama/Biden 349 (53.9) McCain/Palin 189 (45.1)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 333-169-36

Tossup States: Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 15th: +.4 McCain

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 333-205 to Obama 369-169

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 273-265 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 349-189

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Pennsylvania, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, Washington, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Nevada, Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

North Carolina, West Virginia

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Indiana, North Dakota

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Georgia, Montana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Senate Rankings 10.15.08

Senate +8 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory needed for takeover, +1 GOP or S.Q. with McCain victory)
Projected Senate: 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: 54-45-1 DEM (+4 DEM) to 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Wide Range: 51-48-1 DEM (+1 DEM) to 62-37-1 DEM (+12 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +7 DEM (Cook: +6-7 DEM, Sabato: +6-7 DEM, CQ: +7 DEM, Rothenberg: +7-8 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 54-41-1-4 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 56-43-1 DEM (+6 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 4 GOP 0
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 4 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 12 GOP 1
Likelihood of GOP Takeover: -1,000,000,000%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority with Lieberman: 35%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority without Lieberman: 20%

Switches from October 2nd: +2 DEM

From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Minnesota, North Carolina

Safe Democratic

Virginia

Likely Democratic

New Mexico

Leans Democratic

New Hampshire, Colorado

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Oregon, Alaska, Minnesota, North Carolina

Leans Republican

Mississippi (Special), Maine, Kentucky, Georgia

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Texas

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

House Ranking 10.15.08

House +14 DEM

After the release of 3Q fundraising numbers last night, Alabama 5th has moved from DEM HOLD to GOP Gain and New Jersey 7th has moved from DEM Gain to GOP Hold. The new numbers are reflected below

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 250-185 DEM (+14 DEM)
Narrow Range: 238-197 DEM (+2 DEM) t0 261-174 DEM (+25 DEM)
Wide Range: 223-212 DEM (+13 GOP) to 275-160 DEM (+39 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +13 DEM (Cook: +11-12 DEM, Sabato: +15 DEM, CQ: +9 DEM, Rothenberg: +18 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 238-174-23 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 250-185 DEM (+14 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 12 GOP 11
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 17 DEM 6
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 8 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 39 GOP 15
Likelihood of Turnover: Naught, Nil, Nada, Zip, Zero

Switches from October 1st: +3 DEM (+6 DEM, +3 GOP)

From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Minnesota 3rd, Colorado 4th, Michigan 7th, New York 29th, North Carolina 8th, Pennsylvania 3rd
From DEM Gain to GOP Hold: Connecticut 4th, New Jersey 7th
From DEM Hold to GOP Gain: Florida 16th


Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (2)

New York 13th, New York 25th

Leans Democratic (6)

Virginia 11th, Alaska At-Large, Illinois 11th, Arizona 1st, New Jersey 3rd, Ohio 16th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (9)

Nevada 3rd, New Mexico 1st, Colorado 4th, Ohio 15th, Minnesota 3rd, North Carolina 8th, Pennsylvania 3rd, New York 29th, Michigan 7th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (8)

Florida 24th, New Jersey 7th, Connecticut 4th, Michigan 9th, Ohio 1st, New Mexico 2nd, Florida 8th, Louisiana 4th

Leans Republican (14)

Illinois 10th, Washington 8th, Florida 21st, Florida 25th, Missouri 9th, New York 26th, California 4th, Alabama 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Maryland 1st, Missouri 6th, Ohio 2nd, Kentucky 2nd, Wyoming At-Large

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (8)

Idaho 1st, Nevada 2nd, Arizona 3rd, Florida 13th, West Virginia 2nd, Nebraska 2nd, Pennsylvania 6th, Pennsylvania 15th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (8)

Pennsylvania 18th, Texas 7th, Illinois 6th, New Jersey 5th, Minnesota 6th, Virginia 5th, Texas 10th, Minnesota 2nd

Currently Safe (144)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican/Tossup (3)

Florida 16th, Texas 22nd, Alabama 5th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (3)

Pennsylvania 11th, New Hampshire 1st, Louisiana 6th

Leans Democratic (9)

California 11th, Kansas 2nd, Georgia 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, Mississippi 1st, Wisconsin 8th, Arizona 8th, Kentucky 3rd, Pennsylvania 4th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (8)

Oregon 5th, Arizona 5th, Indiana 9th, Illinois 14th, New York 20th, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Connecticut 5th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (7)

Ohio 18th, Kansas 3rd, New York 24th, Georgia 12th, Pennsylvania 8th, New Hampshire 2nd, Minnesota 1st, Indiana 8th

Currently Safe (206)