Senate Rankings 9.3.08

Senate +5 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory, +1 GOP with McCain victory and Lieberman caucusing with DEM, S.Q. with McCain victory and Lieberman caucusing with GOP, needed for takeover

Projected Senate: 55-44-1 DEM

Narrow Range: +5 DEM (55-44-1 DEM) to +5 DEM (55-44-1 DEM)

Wide Range: S.Q. (50-49-1 DEM) to +10 DEM (60-39-1 DEM)

Pundit Spread: +5-6 DEM (Cook: +5-6 DEM, Sabato: +5-6 DEM, CQ: +5-6 DEM, Rothenberg: +4 DEM)

Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 5 GOP 0

Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 10 GOP 1

Likelihood of Turnover: .2%

Likelihood of Democratic Filibuster Proof Majority: 3%

Switches from August 6th: None

Republican Defenses

Solid Democratic

Virginia

Leans Democratic

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska, Colorado

Leans Republican

Minnesota, Mississippi (Special), Oregon, Maine, North Carolina

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Texas, Kentucky

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic 

Louisiana