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Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+7 DEM)
Narrow Range: 236-199 DEM (S.Q.) to 255-180 (+19 DEM)
Wide Range: 218-217 GOP (+19 GOP) to 272-163 (+36 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +9 DEM (Cook: +10-11 DEM, Sabato: +10 DEM, CQ: +8 DEM, Rothenberg: +6 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 236-180-19 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: +9 DEM (245-190 DEM) or +10 DEM (246-189 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: GOP 63.2 DEM 36.8
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 68.4 DEM 31.6
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 6 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 36 GOP 20
Likelihood of Turnover: .5%
Switches from September 3rd: +1 GOP
From DEM Gain to GOP Hold: Nevada 3rd
Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM
Yes, I actually got the commentary done on time; I am as shocked as everyone else.
This week's House projection features no major changes as only one seat has changed hands since September 3rd. Mirroring the Silver State's status as the state most prone to flipping in presidential projections, the Nevada 3rd seat has returned to the GOP fold. However, I have moved this seat solely due to a recalibration of the generic Congressional Ballot and if I were the sort of person who had pure tossups, Jon Porter's seat would probably remain in that column until Election Day.
In the grand scheme of things, this election appears to be another reinforcement election such as those in 1934 and 1956 rather than the mild backlashes of 1978 and 1996. The Democrats have six very good pickup opportunities, including one seat (New York 13th), which is almost certain to have a Democratic congressman come January. In comparison, no Republican holds more than a tilt advantage in any Democratic seats. Even taking into consideration races that are merely in the lean category, the current political environment has tilted the playing field towards the Democrats; with thirty-six Republican seats in play compared to only twenty Democratic ones.
Still there are a couple of bright spots for Republicans. First, unlike in 2006, they do have legitimate pickup opportunities. Specifically in three southern seats which while leaning heavily Republican in Presidential elections have Democratic congressmen. A particularly satisfying takeover would be in the Louisiana 6th where Don Cazayoux, whose special election victory a few short months ago started much of the Republican soul gazing back in Spring, is currently a slight underdog. If Cazayoux loses, he would be the first special election victor not to win a consequent full term in recent memory. While still losing seats, Republican should dodge the ignominy of being shut out for two consecutive cycles.
The other bright spot is the cold comfort that the political climate could certainly be worse. Earlier in the year after losing three special elections in a row, a malaise permeated through the Republican caucus that they were bound to lose at least twenty seats if not thirty. Instead, the GOP appears likely to hold Democratic gains in the low double digits and perhaps, as I currently project, could keep them within single digits. Of course, there is not a whole lot of difference between losing 10-3 and 30-0 outside of moral victories. In this case by keeping Democrats from having a majority larger than any Republican one since 1930. Although, I suppose it is easier to dig oneself out of a twenty-six-seat hole than a forty seat one.
Still if I was a Republican, I would be praying night and day for a Republican veto pen in the White House, because it will take a long while (barring a complete Democratic brain fart which is not out of the question) for the GOP to whittle their way back into the majority. Actually gaining seats instead of continuing to lose them would be a good start.
Republican Defenses (199)
Likely Democratic (1)
New York 13th
Leans Democratic (5)
New York 25th, Arizona 1st, Illinois 11th, Virginia 11th, New Jersey 3rd
Tilts Democratic (4)
New Jersey 7th, New Mexico 1st, Minnesota 3rd, Ohio 15th
Tilts Republican (9)
Nevada 3rd, Ohio 16th, Connecticut 4th, Washington 8th, North Carolina 8th, Michigan 7th, Alaska At-Large, Colorado 4th, Louisiana 4th
Leans Republican (17)
Illinois 10th, New York 29th, Ohio 1st, New York 26th, Michigan 9th, Missouri 6th, New Mexico 2nd, Florida 24th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Florida 21st, Alabama 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Missouri 9th, Ohio 2d, Florida 13th, West Virginia 2nd, Pennsylvania 6th
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (6)
Pennsylvania 18th, California 4th, Idaho 1st, Nevada 2nd, Florida 8th, Florida 25th
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (15)
Pennsylvania 15th, Wyoming At-Large, Illinois 6th, New Jersey 5th, Minnesota 6th, Virginia 10th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Illinois 18th, Texas 10th, Texas 7th, Maryland 1st, Minnesota 2nd, California 50th, Florida 15th
Currently Safe (142)
Democratic Defenses (236)
Tilts Republican (3)
Texas 22nd, Louisiana 6th, Alabama 5th
Tilts Democratic (3)
Kansas 2nd, Pennsylvania 10th, Florida 16th
Leans Democratic (14)
New Hampshire 1st, Georgia 8th, Wisconsin 8th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 4th, Mississippi 1st, Kentucky 3rd, Illinois 14th, Indiana 9th, Oregon 5th, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 11th, Arizona 8th, Arizona 5th
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)
Minnesota 1st, Kansas 3rd, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Georgia 12th, Connecticut 5th
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)
Ohio 18th, New York 24th, New Hampshire 2nd, Pennsylvania 8th, Indiana 8th, New York 19th
Currently Safe (204)
Top 30 House Turnover Targets (lighter colors indicates projected turnover)
1. New York 13th
2. New York 25th
3. Arizona 1st
4. Illinois 11th
5. Virginia 11th
6. New Jersey 3rd
7. New Jersey 7th
8. Texas 22nd
9. Louisiana 6th
10. New Mexico 1st
11. Alabama 5th
12. Minnesota 3rd
13. Ohio 15th
14. Nevada 3rd
15. Ohio 16th
16. Connecticut 4th
17. Kansas 2nd
18. Washington 8th
19. North Carolina 8th
20. Pennsylvania 10th
21. Michigan 7th
22. Alaska At-Large
23. Colorado 4th
24, Louisiana 4th
25. Florida 16th
26. Illinois 10th
27. New Hampshire 1st
28. New York 29th
29. Ohio 1st
30. Georgia 8th
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