Presidential Projection 9.26.08

Pre-Debate Edition

Obama/Biden 286 (51.6) McCain/Palin 252 (47.4)

With Tossups: Obama 269-200-69

Switches from September 23rd: +13 Obama

McCain to Obama: Virginia

Swing in Projected Popular Vote since September 23rd: +.6 Obama

Narrow Range: Draw 269-269 to Obama 338-200

Wide Range: McCain 278-260 to Obama 338-200

State by State Polling Only: Obama 286-252

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (14)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (139)

Massachusetts, Illinois, New York, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (37)

Maine, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey

Leans Obama (79)

Iowa, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado

Tilts Obama (17)

New Hampshire, Virginia

Tilts McCain (52)

Ohio, Nevada, Florida

Leans McCain (42)

Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia

Likely McCain (70)

Arkansas, Montana, Louisiana, Georgia, North Dakota, Texas

Solid McCain (35)

Arizona, Mississippi, South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky

Safe McCain (44)

Kansas, Tennessee, Alaska, Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming

Top Ten Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 7.0% (1)

2. New Mexico-Obama 5.4% (2)

3. Colorado-Obama 2.8% (3)

4. Virginia-Obama .4% (5)

5. Ohio-McCain .6% (6)

6. Nevada-McCain .7% (4)

7. New Hampshire-Obama 1.8% (7)

8. Florida-McCain 1.8% (8)

9. Missouri-McCain 4.0% (NR)

10. Pennsylvania-Obama 4.1% (10)

Dropping Out Since Tuesday: Wisconsin (9)