Presidential Projection 9.23.08

Obama/Biden 273 (51.3) McCain/Palin 265 (47.7)

With Tossups: Obama 260-227-51

Switches from September 13th: +9 Obama

McCain to Obama: Colorado

Swing in Projected Popular Vote since September 13th: +5.2 Obama

Narrow Range: McCain 278-260 to Obama 311-227

Wide Range: McCain 309-229 to Obama 338-200

State by State Polling Only: Obama 286-252

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (26)

Washington D.C., Massachusetts, Vermont, Hawaii, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (62)

Illinois, Maryland, New York

Likely Obama (69)

California, Delaware, Connecticut, Maine

Leans Obama (103)

New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Tilts Obama (13)

New Hampshire, Colorado

Tilts McCain (38)

Nevada, Virginia, Ohio

Leans McCain (69)

Florida, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia

Likely McCain (41)

Montana, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota

Solid McCain (78)

Texas, Arizona, Mississippi, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska

Safe McCain (39)

Kansas, Nebraska, Alabama, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah

Top Ten Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 7.1% (1)
2. New Mexico-Obama 4.7% (2)
3. Colorado-Obama .9% (3)
4. Nevada-McCain .5% (5)
5. Virginia-McCain .7% (8)
6. Ohio-McCain 1.3% (4)
7. New Hampshire-Obama 1.9% (7)
8. Florida-McCain 2.4% (10)
9. Wisconsin-Obama 3.4% (NR)
10. Pennsylvania-Obama 3.6% (9)

Dropping Out: Michigan (6)