House Rankings 9.20.08

House +7 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)

Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+7 DEM)

Narrow Range: 238-197 (+2 DEM) to 253-182 DEM (+17 DEM)

Wide Range: 218-217 GOP (+19 GOP) to 270-165 DEM (+34 DEM)

With Tossups Unassigned: 238-182-15 DEM

With Tossups Split 50/50: 245-190 DEM (+9 DEM) or 246-189 DEM (+10 DEM)

Current Tossup Winning Split: GOP 10 DEM 5

Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 11 DEM 4

Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better) DEM 6 GOP 0

Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse) DEM 34 GOP 20

Likelihood of Turnover: .1%

Switches from September 13th: Push

From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Alaska At-Large

From DEM Gain to GOP Hold: Minnesota 3rd

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM

There is not much to talk about in this week's House ranking. The Democrats are again projected to pick up a net of seven seats, leading to an expanded majority of fifty one. However, the addition of polling data into the formula has led to two seats flipping from last week. In all honesty moving the Alaska seat into the Democratic column is probably overdue, as Berkowitz has long held double digit polling leads over Young. But a combination of an unresolved primary, a potential Palin bump, and the simple fact that I've been burned before predicting Democratic victories in Alaska led to hesitation. As for the Minnesota seat, Paulsen's three point lead over Madia in a relatively recent Survey USA poll has changed the rating to Tilts Republican. However, that race will probably stay in either one of the tilt columns until Election Day. The only other news is that due to changes in pundit predictions two Republican seats (Pennsylvania 6th and West Virginia 2nd) have moved into the likely Republican column and, at least for the moment, out of play. Anyway here's the actual projection as well as the thirty seat most likely to change hands on Election Day.

And, yes I will have new Presidential numbers up sometime today.

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (1)

New York 13th

Leans Democratic (5)

New York 25th, Arizona 1st, Illinois 11th, Virginia 11th, New Jersey 3rd

Tilts Democratic (4)

Alaska At-Large, New Mexico 1st, New Jersey 7th, Ohio 15th

Tilts Republican (7)

Nevada 3rd, Ohio 16th, Connecticut 4th, Minnesota 3rd, Colorado 4th, Louisiana 4th, Washington 8th

Leans Republican (17)

Michigan 7th, New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Missouri 9th, New York 26th, Florida 21st, North Carolina 8th, Missouri 6th, New Mexico 2nd, Florida 24th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Michigan 9th, Illinois 10th, Virginia 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Alabama 2nd, Florida 13th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (7)

West Virginia 2nd, California 4th, Idaho 1st, Nevada 2nd, Florida 8th, Florida 25th, Pennsylvania 6th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (16)

Pennsylvania 15th, Wyoming At-Large, Maryland 1st, Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, New Jersey 5th, Minnesota 6th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Texas 10th, Texas 7th, Kentucky 2nd, Nebraska 2nd, Minnesota 2nd, Florida 15th, Virginia 10th

Currently Safe (142)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican (3)

Texas 22nd, Louisiana 6th, Alabama 5th

Tilts Democratic (1)

Kansas 2nd

Leans Democratic (16)

California 11th, New Hampshire 1st, Pennsylvania 10th, Georgia 8th, Wisconsin 8th, Pennsylvania 11th, Pennsylvania 4th, Mississippi 1st, Illinois 14th, Florida 16th, Arizona 8th, Kentucky 3rd, Oregon 5th, New York 20th, Indiana 9th, Arizona 5th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive  (6)

Minnesota 1st, Kansas 3rd, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Georgia 12th, Connecticut 5th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Ohio 18th, New York 24th, New Hampshire 2nd, Pennsylvania 8th, Indiana 8th, New York 19th

Currently Safe (204)

Top 30 Turnover Targets 

1. New York 13th (1)

2. New York 25th (2)

3. Arizona 1st (3)

4. Illinois 11th (4)

5. Virginia 11th (5)

6. New Jersey 3rd (6)

7. Texas 22nd (8)

8. New Jersey 7th (7)

9. New Mexico 1st (10)

10. Louisiana 6th (9)

11. Alabama 5th (11)

12. Alaska At-Large (22)

13. Ohio 15th (13)

14. Nevada 3rd (14)

15. Minnesota 3rd (12)

16. Ohio 16th (15)

17. Connecticut 4th (16)

18. Kansas 2nd (17)

19. Colorado 4th (23)

20. Washington 8th (18)

21. Louisiana 4th (24)

22. Michigan 7th (21)

23. Pennsylvania 10th (20)

24. North Carolina 8th (19)

25. New Hampshire 1st (27)

26. New York 29th (28)

27. Ohio 1st (29)

28. California 11th (NR)

29. Georgia 8th (30)

30. Wisconsin 8th (NR)

Dropping Out: Florida 16th (25), Illinois 10th (26)