Presidential Projection 9.13.08

I hope to have actual commentary up sometime this evening. Also, I've taken off comment moderation, so please feel free to state your views regarding this site. Thanks. 

Mike

McCain/Palin 274 (50.3) Obama/Biden 264 (48.7)

With Tossups: Obama 259-240-39

Switches from August 26th: +9 McCain

Obama to McCain: Colorado

Swing in Projected Popular Vote since August 26th: +3.2 McCain

Narrow Range: McCain 279-259 to Obama 298-240

Wide Range: McCain 331-207 to Obama 338-200

State by State Polling Only: Obama 273-265

Chance of Turnover: 50.0% (Pure Toss-Up)

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (3)

Washington D.C.

Solid Obama (71)

Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New York, Illinois

Likely Obama (83)

Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, Hawaii

Leans Obama (102)

New Jersey, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan

Tilts Obama (5)

New Mexico

Tilts McCain (34)

Colorado, Ohio, Nevada

Leans McCain (56)

Virginia, Florida, Missouri, West Virginia

Likely McCain (108)

North Carolina, Indiana, Arizona, Montana, Texas, Georgia, South Carolina, South Dakota, Louisiana

Solid McCain (45)

Arkansas, North Dakota, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, Kansas, Nebraska

Safe McCain (31)

Alabama, Alaska, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 10 States Turnover List (Projected Turnovers in lighter colors)

1. Iowa- Obama 5.4%

2. New Mexico- Obama 1.8%

3. Colorado- McCain .4%

4. Ohio- McCain .8%

5. Nevada- McCain 1.6%

6. Michigan- Obama 2.6%

7. New Hampshire- Obama 2.8%

8. Virginia- McCain 3.0%

9. Pennsylvania- Obama 3.6%

10. Florida- McCain 4.0%