Election Night Big Board and Live Blog

President of the United States (270 to win) (DEM GAIN)

Barack Obama (D) 365 (365) (+113)
John McCain (R) 173 (173) (-113)

United States Senate (51 needed for majority) (DEM HOLD)

Democrats 58 (58) (+8)
Republicans 41 (42) (-7)
Independents 0 (0) (-1)
Outstanding 1 (1 GOP leading)

United States House (218 needed for majority)(DEM HOLD)

Democrats 257 (257) (+21)
Republicans 178 (178) (-21)


Governorships (26 needed for majority)(DEM HOLD)

Democrats 29 (29) (NC)
Republicans 21 (21) (NC)

The Live Blog:

11/5/08 5:50 PM: While Gordon Smith clings to a surprising and narrow lead in the Oregon Senate Race, the number of outstanding ballots in Portland and Eugene leads me to believe that Merkely will win by roughly 100,000 votes once they are all counted. Therefore I have moved Oregon into the Dem leading column despite the simply fact that Smith still leads in actual counted votes for the moment. Included below are the predicted distribution of the remaining vote. (calculated by making the rough assumption that counties will continue to vote in the same percentage as has already been counted). I'll be continuing to track this race at least until Portland reports in full.

Oregon: Smith +1,000

Benton (65% Reporting)-Merkley +4,100
Clatsop (80% Reporting)-Merkley +200
Columbia (86% Reporting)-Merkley +100
Coos (89% Reporting)-Smith +300
Douglas (81% Reporting)-Smith +2,900
Josephine (79% Reporting)-Smith +2,200
Klamath (76% Reporting)- Smith +3,800
Lane (45% Reporting)-Merkley +29,500
Malheur (83% Reporting)-Smith +1,000
Marion (59% Reporting)-Smith +6,400
Multnomah (Portland) (49% Reporting)-Merkely +80,000
Washington (78% Reporting)-Merkely +1,400

Estimated Final Result: Merkely +97,000


11/4/08 10:16 PM: Down goes Shays (finally)

11/4/08 9:47 PM:We are now confident enough to project that Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States with no fewer than 277 electoral votes. We also believe that the networks will call the election for Senator Obama at 11 PM when the polls in California close.

11/4/08 9:28 PM: Obama draws first blood as NBC and Fox call Ohio for Obama. And New Mexico also is called for Obama by NBC. Which by my count is enough.

11/4/08 9:06 PM: Some more exits

Arizona: McCain 49.5% Obama 48.5%
Colorado: Obama 52.6% McCain 45.4%
New Mexico: Obama 55.7% McCain 42.8%

Colorado Senate: Udall 51.6% Schaffer 44%
Louisiana Senate: Landrieu 55.2% Kennedy 42.8%
Minnesota Senate: Franken 47.7% Coleman 37.8% Barkley 14.5%


11/14/08 9:02 PM: It's quite clear by this point that Barack Obama will carry all the Kerry states (no pun intended) but he has yet to break through in a single Bush 04 state and the early call in North Dakota combined with McCain's lead in Virginia is making me a tad nervous.

11/4/08 8:18 PM: With Jeanne Shaheen's projected victory in New Hampshire, we now project that the Democrats will retain control of the United States Senate

11/4/08 8:14 PM: Right now McCain doesn't just need an inside straight but a royal flush, maybe he'll get it but if the exits are right the line will crumble and crumble in many places.

11/4/08 8:07 PM: NBC has called Pennsylvania for Barack Obama, the major path for McCain appears to have closed off assuming NBC is right of course.

11/4/08 8:02 PM:More exits again

Florida: Obama 49.5% McCain 48.5%
Missouri: Obama 53.1% McCain 45.4%

Mississippi Senate: Wicker 51.6% Musgrove 48.4%


11/4/08 7:58 PM: You know, I'm starting to think that I might not be particularly good at this whole live blogging thing.

11/4/08 7:30 PM: Even more crappy exits

North Carolina: Obama 51.4% McCain 47.6%
Ohio: Obama 53% McCain 45%
West Virginia: McCain 53.9% Obama 44.1%

North Carolina Senate: Hagan 51.8% Dole 43.2%

11/4/08 7:00 PM: I know, I know exits polls suck but still here's the early ones

Indiana: Obama 52.2% McCain 46.4%
Virginia: Obama 54.2% McCain 44.9%
Georgia: McCain 49.5% Obama 48%
South Carolina: McCain 52.2% Obama 46.4%

Georgia Senate: Chambliss 49.1% Martin 46%
Kentucky Senate: McConnell 53.8% Lunsford 46.1%

11/4/08 7:00 PM- NBC calls Kentucky for McCain and Vermont for Obama, Indiana too close to call. Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina too early to call.

11/4/08 6:55 PM-Obama slightly ahead in Indiana even without Gary or Indy reporting, while Kentucky is close at the moment but only because Louisville just did a massive vote dump. Oh yeah, the updating every race is a crazy idea, I think I'm going back to my original plan unless a race is close and has a large percentage of the vote reporting.

11/4/08 6:20 PM-And of course it's time for the typical hour long lull until more states close at 7.

11/4/08 6:00 PM- We are confident enough to project that the Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives

11/4/08 6:00 PM- We are confident enough to project that the Democrats will retain a majority of governorships

11/4/08 6:00 PM- As polls close in eastern Indiana and Kentucky, we are ready to make the following calls in races where one party is predicted to win by at least fourteen points (none of that wussy waiting for people to actually stop voting needed for me to make some calls) :)

Presidential Race:

Senator Obama: 13 states and D.C. for 190 electoral votes
Senator McCain: 7 states for 42 electoral votes

Senate: 12 seats (including a pickup in Virginia) for the Democrats and 11 seats for the Republicans

House: 218 seats for the Democrats and 143 seats for the Republicans

Governorships: 4 governorships for the Democrats and 2 governorships for the Republicans

11/4/08 6:00 PM- Game On

11/4/08 4:19 PM-Well, we're about 100 minutes away from the first poll closings and the official start of election night. (Although the first time we'll actually get any results is probably 7 P.M.). Before I take another quick nap and order the election night pizza, I thought I should take a moment to show how results will be reported on here. Outside of the big board which should provide a nice basic overview, I will be providing more detailed data for the individual races than I originally planned including the current margin in both raw votes and percentage, the percentage of votes already counted, and if a race is still too close to call with at least 60% reporting, the remaining percentage needed for the candidate currently trailing to take the lead. For example, let's say that in the North Carolina Senate Race Kay Hagan is leading Liddy Dole by 150,000 votes or 5 percentage points with 80% reporting, the entry for the North Carolina Senate Race would look something like this.

North Carolina (Hagan +150,000/+5%) (80% Reporting) (Dole needs 63%)

Anyway, I'll be back on starting at 6, but if you have any questions feel free to leave them in the comments and I'll try to respond as quickly as possible. Thanks .

11/2/08 8:38 AM-With the movement of Pennsylvania 4th from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic, I will be calling the House of Representatives for Democratic Retention at 6 PM EST Tuesday Night. Of course this presumes that there are no other moves dropping the Democrats back below the 218 threshold in the next 58 hours. While not a particularly huge surprise, Democrats should be happy to start election night with a congressional chamber all ready in hand.

11/1/08 9:40 PM-Okay while I'm still trying to work out a few bugs, I think things are stable enough that I can give a brief overview of my plan for Tuesday night. Election coverage will consist of two major parts, the liveblog and the big board. The live blog will start at 6:00 PM EST on election day (the same time the polls in eastern Indiana and Kentucky close). My goal is to provide insight on both the big races and the smaller ones which might get overlooked by a news media certain to focus on the presidential race. The second section is the big board which will track the results of 28 state level presidential contests, 13 senate seats, 75 house seats and 5 governorships (with the possibility of adding still more races). Basically, I am planning on tracking every race that I rate as likely, leans or tilts. Meanwhile all races that are rated as solid or safe heading into election night will be automatically projected for the leading party at 6 PM, regardless of whether or not polls have closed yet in that state, as can be currently seen in the toplines and presidential projection map. As for the tracking itself, instead of trying to keep up with transcribing the numbers from CNN, I'm simply going to use color coding. Light Blue or Salmon will indicate that either the Democrat or Republican is leading while a darker hue will indicate that the race has been called. As for the top lines, the first number indicates the number of electoral votes/seats/governorships currently projected. The first set of numbers in parentheses reflects the current prediction (initially the final prediction numbers from November 3rd, with adjustments as the night goes on) while the second set of parentheses indicates the overall change from the previous election. Finally, assuming that everything goes well I will be updating the election map every fifteen minutes. Feel free to ask any questions and leave any comments about the format of the election night live blog and I hope to see everyone (metaphorically speaking) on Tuesday.

11/1/08 8:22 PM-Still Testing


Obama Presidential Targets

1. Iowa (DEM GAIN)
2. New Mexico (DEM GAIN)
3. Colorado (DEM GAIN)
-------Predicted Takeover Line--------
4. Virginia (DEM GAIN)
5. Nevada (DEM GAIN)
6. Ohio (DEM GAIN)
7. Florida (DEM GAIN)

8. Missouri
9. North Carolina (DEM GAIN)
------Predicted Turnover Line----------
10. Indiana (DEM GAIN)
11. Montana
12. North Dakota
13. Georgia
14. Arizona
15. South Dakota
16. Arkansas
17. West Virginia
18. South Carolina
19. Louisiana
20. Texas
21. Mississippi
22. Kentucky
23. Tennessee

McCain Presidential Targets

1. Pennsylvania
2. New Hampshire
3. Minnesota
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan

Democratic Senate Targets

1. Virginia (DEM GAIN)
2. New Mexico (DEM GAIN)
3. Colorado (DEM GAIN)
4. New Hampshire (DEM GAIN)
5. Alaska (DEM GAIN)
6. Oregon (DEM GAIN)
7. North Carolina (DEM GAIN)
8. Minnesota (Recount)
-----Predicted Turnover Line-------
9. Georgia
10. Kentucky
11. Mississippi (Special)
12. Maine

Republican Senate Targets

1. Louisiana

Democratic House Targets

1. New York 13th (DEM GAIN)
2. New York 25th (DEM GAIN)
3. Virginia 11th (DEM GAIN)
4. Florida 24th (DEM GAIN)
5. Arizona 1st (DEM GAIN)
6. Illinois 11th (DEM GAIN)
7. Ohio 16th (DEM GAIN)
8. Alaska At-Large
9. Ohio 15th (DEM GAIN)
10. New Mexico 1st (DEM GAIN)
11. New Jersey 3rd (DEM GAIN)
12. New York 29th (DEM GAIN)
13. Michigan 9th (DEM GAIN)
14. North Carolina 8th (DEM GAIN)
15. Florida 8th (DEM GAIN)
16. Colorado 4th (DEM GAIN)
17. Pennsylvania 3rd (DEM GAIN)
18. Connecticut 4th (DEM GAIN)
19. Nevada 3rd (DEM GAIN)
20. New Mexico 2nd (DEM GAIN)
21. Washington 8th
22. Minnesota 6th
23. Michigan 7th (DEM GAIN)
24. Minnesota 3rd
25. New Jersey 7th
26. Ohio 1st (DEM GAIN)
27. Idaho 1st (DEM GAIN)
28. Illinois 10th
29. California 4th
--------Predicted Turnover Line--------
30. Louisiana 4th
31. Florida 25th
32. Florida 21st
33. Alabama 2nd (DEM GAIN)
34. Missouri 9th
35. Maryland 1st (DEM GAIN)
36. New York 26th
37. Kentucky 2nd
38. Nebraska 2nd
39. Virginia 2nd (DEM GAIN)
40. Virginia 5th (DEM GAIN)
41. Nevada 2nd
42. Ohio 2nd
43. Wyoming At-Large
44. Arizona 3rd
45. Indiana 3rd
46. Texas 7th
47. West Virginia 2nd
48. Texas 10th
49. South Carolina 1st
50. Pennsylvania 18th
51. California 50th
52. Florida 13th
53. New Jersey 5th
54. Iowa 4th
55. Missouri 6th
56. Pennsylvania 15th

Republican House Targets

1. Florida 16th (GOP GAIN)
2. Texas 22nd (GOP GAIN)
3. Pennsylvania 11th
---------Predicted Turnover Line------------
4. Alabama 5th
5. Kansas 2nd (GOP GAIN)
6. Louisiana 6th (GOP GAIN)
7. New Hampshire 1st
8. Georgia 8th
9. Pennsylvania 12th
10. California 11th
11. Wisconsin 8th
12. Pennsylvania 10th
13. Mississippi 1st
14. New York 20th
15. Arizona 5th
16. Arizona 8th
17. Texas 23rd
18. Illinois 14th
-----------------------------
32. Louisiana 2nd (GOP GAIN)

Democratic Governor Targets

1. Missouri (DEM GAIN)
-------Predicted Turnover Line--------
2. Indiana
3. Vermont

Republican Governor Targets

1. North Carolina
2. Washington

House Ratings Final

House: +26 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 262-173 DEM (+26 DEM)
Narrow Range: 250-185 DEM (+14 DEM) to 265-170 DEM (+29 DEM)
Wide Range: 227-208 DEM (+9 GOP) to 283-152 DEM (+47 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 250-170-15 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 257-178 (+21 DEM) to 258-177 (+22 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 12 GOP 3
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 13 DEM 2
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 18 GOP 2
Targets in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 48 GOP 12
2006 Accuracy: 420/435 (96.6%) (Predicted: +29 DEM, Actual: +30 DEM)

Long Story Short: The Democrats are certain to maintain control of the House of Representatives gaining at least twenty seats, with an excellent chance of forming the largest house majority, for either party, since 1992.

Long Story Long: Tomorrow Afternoon (I hope)

* Pundit Spread determined by assigning all seats to party currently favored and dividing any remaining tossups evenly between the two major parties

Switches from October 30th: +3 DEM

From GOP HOLD to DEM GAIN: Ohio 1st, Idaho 1st, California 4th

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM

†-December runoff currently projected

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (3)

New York 13th, New York 25th, Virginia 11th

Leans Democratic (15)

Florida 24th, Arizona 1st, Illinois 11th, Ohio 16th, Alaska At-Large, Ohio 15th, New Mexico 1st, New Jersey 3rd, New York 29th, Michigan 9th, North Carolina 8th, Florida 8th, Colorado 4th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Connecticut 4th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (11)

Nevada 3rd, New Mexico 2nd, Washington 8th, Minnesota 6th, Michigan 7th, Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Ohio 1st, Idaho 1st, Illinois 10th, California 4th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)

Louisiana 4th†, Florida 25th

Leans Republican (17)

Florida 21st, Alabama 2nd, Missouri 9th, Maryland 1st, New York 26th, Kentucky 2nd, Nebraska 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Virginia 5th, Nevada 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Wyoming At-Large, Arizona 3rd, Indiana 3rd, Texas 7th, West Virginia 2nd, Texas 10th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (8)

South Carolina 1st, Pennsylvania 18th, California 50th, Florida 13th, New Jersey 5th, Iowa 4th, Missouri 6th, Pennsylvania 15t

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (11)

California 46th, California 3rd, North Carolina 5th, Pennsylvania 6th, Ohio 14th, Illinois 6th, Minnesota 2nd, Alabama 3rd, California 26th, Illinois 13th, Virginia 10th

Currently Safe (132)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Likely Republican (1)

Florida 16th

Leans Republican (1)

Texas 22nd

Tilts Republican/Tossup (1)

Pennsylvania 11th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (1)

Alabama 5th

Leans Democratic (8)

Kansas 2nd, Louisiana 6th, New Hampshire 1st, Georgia 8th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 12th, Wisconsin 8th, Pennsylvania 10th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Mississippi 1st, New York 20th, Arizona 5th, Arizona 8th, Texas 23rd, Illinois 14th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (9)

Ohio 18th, New York 24th, Kansas 3rd, Kentucky 3rd, Pennsylvania 4th, Indiana 9th, Illinois 8th, Connecticut 5th, Minnesota 1st

Currently Safe (209)

Presidential Projection Final

Election Day (more or less)

Election Night Live Blog

Final Predictions

Senate: +8 DEM
House: +26 DEM

Obama/Biden 364 (53.4) McCain/Palin 174 (45.6)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-157-70

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota

(70 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from November 1st: Obama +.6

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 381-157

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 291-247 to Obama 396-142

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Long Story Short: Assuming that the polling data is even remotely accurate, Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States, winning at least 291 electoral votes.

Long Story Long: Tomorrow Afternoon

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%) (132)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Vermont, Delaware, California, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%) (58)

Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Oregon, Maine, Washington

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%) (74)

Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%) (47)

Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%) (53)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%) (17)

Indiana, Montana, North Dakota

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%) (25)

Georgia, Arizona

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%) (90)

South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia, South Carolina, Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%) (9)

Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%+) (33)

Nebraska, Alabama, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 12.9%
2. New Mexico-Obama 10.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.6%
4. Nevada-Obama 5.9%
5. Virginia-Obama 5.1%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.3%
7. Florida-Obama 1.9%
8. Missouri-Obama .4%
9. North Carolina-Obama .1%
10. Indiana-McCain 1%
11. Montana-McCain 2.8%
12. North Dakota-McCain 3%
13. Georgia-McCain 4.4%
14. Arizona-McCain 5.1%
15. Pennsylvania-Obama 8.9%

Senate Ratings Final

Senate: +8 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory needed for takeover, +1 GOP or S.Q. with McCain victory)
Projected Senate: 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: 57-42-1 DEM (+7 DEM) to 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Wide Range: 52-47-1 DEM (+2 DEM) to 62-37-1 DEM (+12 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +7 DEM (Cook: +7 DEM, Sabato: +7 DEM, CQ: +7 DEM, Rothenberg: +7-8 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 57-41-1-1 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 57-42-1 DEM(+7 DEM) or 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 1 GOP 0
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 1 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 7 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 12 GOP 1
2006 Accuracy: 33/33 (100%)
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority with Lieberman: 20%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority without Lieberman: 7%

Long Story Short: The Democrats will register large gains, gaining their strongest majority since the Carter administration. However, they will fall short of a filibuster proof majority unless they somehow pull off an upset in at least one of three southern seats which Lean Republican.

Long Story Long: Tomorrow Afternoon

Switches from October 30th: None

†-December runoff currently projected

Republican Defenses

Safe Democratic

Virginia

Likely Democratic

New Mexico, Colorado

Leans Democratic

New Hampshire, Alaska, Oregon, North Carolina

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Minnesota

Leans Republican

Georgia†, Kentucky, Mississippi (Special), Maine

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

Presidential Projection 11.1.08

Senate: +8 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
House: +23 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
Governorships: +1 DEM

3 days until Election Day

Slight widening for Obama in the national vote. Obama's lead in Nevada goes (ever so slightly) over five points. McCain's margin in three states (Arizona, Georgia and Montana) falls below that same threshold. Pennsylvania now McCain's best Kerry state but Obama still currently favored to win by nine points.

Obama/Biden 364 (53.1) McCain/Palin 174 (45.9)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 31st: Obama +.6

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 291-247 to Obama 403-135

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Illinois, Massachusetts, Delaware, California

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington, Maine

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, North Carolina, Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Arizona, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, South Carolina, Kentucky

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Nebraska, Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 11.9%
2. New Mexico-Obama 10.3%
3. Colorado-Obama 7.2%
4. Virginia-Obama 6.2%
5. Nevada-Obama 5.0% (5.03)
6. Ohio-Obama 4.6%
7. Florida-Obama 2.6%
8. North Carolina-Obama .9%
9. Missouri-Obama .6%
10. Indiana-McCain .9%
11. Arizona-McCain 4.9%
12. Georgia-McCain 4.9%
13. Montana-McCain 5.0% (4.95)
14. North Dakota-McCain 5.1%
15. West Virginia-McCain 7.3%