Posts
Governors: +1 DEM
Current Governorships: 28-22 DEM (+4 GOP needed to have a majority of governorships)
Projected Governorships: 29-21 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: +1 DEM (29-21 DEM) to +1 DEM (29-21 DEM)
Wide Range: +2 GOP (26-24 DEM) to +2 DEM (30-20 DEM)
Pundit Spread: S.Q. to +1 DEM (Cook S.Q. to +1 DEM, CQ S.Q. to +1 DEM, Sabato S.Q., Rothenberg +1 DEM)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Switches since June 9th: None
Republican Defenses
Leans Democratic
Missouri
Leans Republican
Indiana
Democratic Defenses
Leans Democratic
Washington, North Carolina
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Delaware
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
House Ranking 7/23/08
House: +8 DEM
Current House: 236-199 DEM (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 244-191 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: +3 GOP (233-202 DEM) to +19 DEM (255-180 DEM)
Wide Range: +22 GOP (221-214 GOP) to +34 DEM (270-165 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +7-8 DEM (Cook +9-10 DEM, CQ +6-7 DEM, Sabato +8 DEM, Rothenberg +5 DEM)
Likelihood of Takeover: 2%
Switches from June 15th: None
Republican Defenses
Leans Democratic (4)
Illinois 11th, New York 13th, New York 25th, Virginia 11th
Tilts Democratic/Toss Up (6)
Arizona 1st, New Mexico 1st, New Jersey 3rd, Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Ohio 15th
Tilts Republican/Toss Up (9)
Ohio 16th, North Carolina 8th, Washington 8th, Alaska At-Large, New York 26th, Illinois 10th, Michigan 7th, Connecticut 4th, Colorado 4th
Leans Republican (15)
New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Nevada 3rd, Louisiana 4th, Michigan 9th, Florida 24th, Missouri 6th, Ohio 2nd, Florida 13th, Virginia 2nd, Alabama 2nd, New Mexico 2nd, Missouri 9th, Pennsylvania 6th, West Virginia 2nd
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (7)
Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, California 4th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Florida 8th, Florida 21st, Pennsylvania 15th
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (13)
Wyoming At-Large, Florida 15th, Minnesota 6th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Illinois 18th, Nevada 2nd, Maryland 1st, Idaho 1st, Kentucky 2nd, New Jersey 5th, California 50th, Virginia 10th
Safe Republican (145)
Democratic Defenses
Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (2)
Alabama 5th, Texas 22nd
Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (5)
Kansas 2nd, Louisiana 6th, Florida 16th, Pennsylvania 10th, California 11th
Leans Democratic (15)
Mississippi 1st, Georgia 8th, Indiana 9th, Arizona 5th, Wisconsin 8th, New Hampshire 1st, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 4th, Kentucky 3rd, Oregon 5th, Illinois 14th, Arizona 8th, Pennsylvania 11th, Minnesota 1st, Illinois 8th
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)
Pennsylvania 8th, Kansas 3rd, Texas 23rd, Georgia 12th, New York 19th, Connecticut 5th
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (4)
Indiana 8th, Ohio 18th, New Hampshire 2nd, Indiana 2nd
Safe Democratic (204)
Current House: 236-199 DEM (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 244-191 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: +3 GOP (233-202 DEM) to +19 DEM (255-180 DEM)
Wide Range: +22 GOP (221-214 GOP) to +34 DEM (270-165 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +7-8 DEM (Cook +9-10 DEM, CQ +6-7 DEM, Sabato +8 DEM, Rothenberg +5 DEM)
Likelihood of Takeover: 2%
Switches from June 15th: None
Republican Defenses
Leans Democratic (4)
Illinois 11th, New York 13th, New York 25th, Virginia 11th
Tilts Democratic/Toss Up (6)
Arizona 1st, New Mexico 1st, New Jersey 3rd, Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Ohio 15th
Tilts Republican/Toss Up (9)
Ohio 16th, North Carolina 8th, Washington 8th, Alaska At-Large, New York 26th, Illinois 10th, Michigan 7th, Connecticut 4th, Colorado 4th
Leans Republican (15)
New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Nevada 3rd, Louisiana 4th, Michigan 9th, Florida 24th, Missouri 6th, Ohio 2nd, Florida 13th, Virginia 2nd, Alabama 2nd, New Mexico 2nd, Missouri 9th, Pennsylvania 6th, West Virginia 2nd
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (7)
Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, California 4th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Florida 8th, Florida 21st, Pennsylvania 15th
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (13)
Wyoming At-Large, Florida 15th, Minnesota 6th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Illinois 18th, Nevada 2nd, Maryland 1st, Idaho 1st, Kentucky 2nd, New Jersey 5th, California 50th, Virginia 10th
Safe Republican (145)
Democratic Defenses
Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (2)
Alabama 5th, Texas 22nd
Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (5)
Kansas 2nd, Louisiana 6th, Florida 16th, Pennsylvania 10th, California 11th
Leans Democratic (15)
Mississippi 1st, Georgia 8th, Indiana 9th, Arizona 5th, Wisconsin 8th, New Hampshire 1st, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 4th, Kentucky 3rd, Oregon 5th, Illinois 14th, Arizona 8th, Pennsylvania 11th, Minnesota 1st, Illinois 8th
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)
Pennsylvania 8th, Kansas 3rd, Texas 23rd, Georgia 12th, New York 19th, Connecticut 5th
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (4)
Indiana 8th, Ohio 18th, New Hampshire 2nd, Indiana 2nd
Safe Democratic (204)
Senate Rankings 7/23/08
Senate: +4 DEM
Current Senate: 51-49 DEM (+1 GOP with McCain Victory, +2 GOP with Obama Victory, needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 55-45 DEM (+4 DEM)
Narrow Range: +4 DEM (55-45 DEM) to +5 DEM (56-44 DEM)
Wide Range: +1 DEM (52-48 DEM) to +9 DEM (60-40 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +4-5 DEM (Cook +5 DEM, CQ +4-5 DEM, Sabato +5 DEM, Rothenberg +3-4 DEM)
Likelihood of Turnover: .5%
Likelihood of Democratic Filibuster Proof Majority: 1%
Switches from June 9th: None
Republican Defenses
Likely Democratic
Virginia, New Mexico
Leans Democratic
New Hampshire, Colorado
Tilts Republican/Toss-Up
Mississippi (Special)
Leans Republican
Oregon, Minnesota, Alaska, Maine
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
North Carolina, Texas, Kentucky
Democratic Defenses
Leans Democratic
Louisiana
Current Senate: 51-49 DEM (+1 GOP with McCain Victory, +2 GOP with Obama Victory, needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 55-45 DEM (+4 DEM)
Narrow Range: +4 DEM (55-45 DEM) to +5 DEM (56-44 DEM)
Wide Range: +1 DEM (52-48 DEM) to +9 DEM (60-40 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +4-5 DEM (Cook +5 DEM, CQ +4-5 DEM, Sabato +5 DEM, Rothenberg +3-4 DEM)
Likelihood of Turnover: .5%
Likelihood of Democratic Filibuster Proof Majority: 1%
Switches from June 9th: None
Republican Defenses
Likely Democratic
Virginia, New Mexico
Leans Democratic
New Hampshire, Colorado
Tilts Republican/Toss-Up
Mississippi (Special)
Leans Republican
Oregon, Minnesota, Alaska, Maine
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
North Carolina, Texas, Kentucky
Democratic Defenses
Leans Democratic
Louisiana
Presidential Projection 7/23/08
Obama 311 (52) McCain 227 (47)
Note: Most Recent Projection (8/3/08) is located here.
Switches from July 7th: +5 Obama
McCain to Obama: Nevada
Obama to McCain: None
Swing in Projected Popular Vote from July 7th: +.2 Obama
Narrow Range: 349-189 Obama to 293-245 Obama
Wide Range: 413-125 Obama to 335-203 McCain
Base Support: 203-125 Obama
State by State Polling: 309-229 Obama
Obama's Best Bush ('04) State: Iowa
McCain's Best Kerry State: New Hampshire
Likelihood of Turnover: 66.4% (Tilts Obama)
Projection based upon the margin in the projected popular vote (+5 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling.
State by State Projection
Safe Obama (14)
D.C., Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii
Solid Obama (136)
New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois, California, Maryland
Likely Obama (53)
Maine, Washington, Minnesota, Delaware, Wisconsin, New Jersey
Leans Obama (90)
Oregon, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio
Tilts Obama/Toss-Up (18)
Nevada, Virginia
Tilts McCain/Toss-Up (38)
Florida, Missouri
Leans McCain (74)
Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, South Dakota, North Dakota, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina
Likely McCain (88)
West Virginia, Texas, Mississippi, Alaska, Arizona, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky
Solid McCain (34)
Kansas, Alabama, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma
Safe McCain (5)
Utah
Switches from July 7th: +5 Obama
McCain to Obama: Nevada
Obama to McCain: None
Swing in Projected Popular Vote from July 7th: +.2 Obama
Narrow Range: 349-189 Obama to 293-245 Obama
Wide Range: 413-125 Obama to 335-203 McCain
Base Support: 203-125 Obama
State by State Polling: 309-229 Obama
Obama's Best Bush ('04) State: Iowa
McCain's Best Kerry State: New Hampshire
Likelihood of Turnover: 66.4% (Tilts Obama)
Projection based upon the margin in the projected popular vote (+5 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling.
State by State Projection
Safe Obama (14)
D.C., Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii
Solid Obama (136)
New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois, California, Maryland
Likely Obama (53)
Maine, Washington, Minnesota, Delaware, Wisconsin, New Jersey
Leans Obama (90)
Oregon, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio
Tilts Obama/Toss-Up (18)
Nevada, Virginia
Tilts McCain/Toss-Up (38)
Florida, Missouri
Leans McCain (74)
Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, South Dakota, North Dakota, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina
Likely McCain (88)
West Virginia, Texas, Mississippi, Alaska, Arizona, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky
Solid McCain (34)
Kansas, Alabama, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma
Safe McCain (5)
Utah
Monday, July 7, 2008
Presidential Projection 7/7/08
Obama 306 (51.9) McCain 232 (47.1)
Switches from last week: +32 McCain
Obama to McCain: Nevada, Florida
McCain to Obama: None
Swing in Projected Popular Vote from last week: +3.6 McCain
Narrow Range: 338-200 Obama to 293-245 Obama
Wide Range: 399-139 Obama to 345-193 McCain
Base Support: 193-139 Obama
State by State Polling: 309-229 Obama
Current Likelihood of Turnover: 65.8% (Tilts Obama)
Projection is based upon the margin in the projected popular vote (+4.8 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling
State by State Projection
Safe Obama (66)
D.C., Vermont, Rhode Island, Illinois, Hawaii, New York
Solid Obama (88)
Massachusetts, Connecticut, California, Maine, Maryland
Likely Obama (39)
Washington, New Jersey, Delaware, Minnesota
Leans Obama (100)
New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Colorado
Tilts Obama/Toss-Up (13)
Virginia
Tilts McCain/Toss-Up (32)
Nevada, Florida
Leans McCain (61)
Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, Georgia, Arkansas
Likely McCain (106)
West Virginia, Texas, South Carolina, North Dakota, Alaska, Mississippi, South Dakota, Louisiana, Arizona, Kansas, Tennessee, Kentucky
Solid McCain (28)
Alabama, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma
Safe McCain (5)
Utah
Switches from last week: +32 McCain
Obama to McCain: Nevada, Florida
McCain to Obama: None
Swing in Projected Popular Vote from last week: +3.6 McCain
Narrow Range: 338-200 Obama to 293-245 Obama
Wide Range: 399-139 Obama to 345-193 McCain
Base Support: 193-139 Obama
State by State Polling: 309-229 Obama
Current Likelihood of Turnover: 65.8% (Tilts Obama)
Projection is based upon the margin in the projected popular vote (+4.8 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling
State by State Projection
Safe Obama (66)
D.C., Vermont, Rhode Island, Illinois, Hawaii, New York
Solid Obama (88)
Massachusetts, Connecticut, California, Maine, Maryland
Likely Obama (39)
Washington, New Jersey, Delaware, Minnesota
Leans Obama (100)
New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Colorado
Tilts Obama/Toss-Up (13)
Virginia
Tilts McCain/Toss-Up (32)
Nevada, Florida
Leans McCain (61)
Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, Georgia, Arkansas
Likely McCain (106)
West Virginia, Texas, South Carolina, North Dakota, Alaska, Mississippi, South Dakota, Louisiana, Arizona, Kansas, Tennessee, Kentucky
Solid McCain (28)
Alabama, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma
Safe McCain (5)
Utah
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)