Governor Rankings 1.29.09

Governorships: +1 GOP

Current Governorships: 28-22 DEM (+4 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Governorships: 27-23 DEM (+1 GOP)
Narrow Range: 26-24 GOP (+4 GOP) to 28-22 DEM (S.Q.)
Wide Range: 33-17 GOP (+11 GOP) to 38-12 DEM (+10 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 24-22-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 26-24 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: DEM 3 GOP 1
Current Tossup Defenses: DEM 3 GOP 1
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): GOP 4 DEM 3
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): GOP 11 DEM 10
2006/2008 Prediction Accuracy: 47/47 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 10%

Open Seats

Democratic

Kansas-Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (Term-Limited)
Maine-Gov. John Baldacci (Term-Limited)
Michigan-Gov. Jennifer Granholm (Term-Limited)
New Mexico-Gov. Bill Richardson (Term-Limited)
Oklahoma-Gov. Brad Henry (Term-Limited)
Oregon-Gov. Ted Kulongoski (Term-Limited)
Pennsylvania-Gov. Ed Rendell (Term-Limited)
Tennessee-Gov. Phil Bredesen (Term-Limited)
Virginia-Gov. Tim Kaine (Term-Limited)
Wyoming-Gov. Dave Freudenthal (Term-Limited)

Republican

Alabama-Gov. Bob Riley (Term-Limited)
California-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (Term-Limited)
Georgia-Gov. Sonny Perdue (Term-Limited)
Hawaii-Gov. Linda Lingle (Term-Limited)
Rhode Island-Gov. Don Carcieri (Term-Limited)
South Carolina-Gov. Mark Sanford (Term-Limited)
South Dakota-Gov. Mike Rounds (Term-Limited)

Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic

Hawaii, Rhode Island, California

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Nevada

Leans Republican

Arizona, Minnesota, Vermont, South Dakota, Georgia, Connecticut

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Alabama

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Florida

Democratic Defenses

Leans Republican

Wyoming, Oklahoma, Kansas, Tennessee

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Virginia (2009)

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Michigan, Pennsylvania

Leans Democratic

New Jersey (2009), Wisconsin, New Mexico, Illinois

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Ohio, Maine, Oregon

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Colorado, Iowa

Top Twenty Turnover Targets

1. Wyoming
2. Hawaii
3. Oklahoma
4. Kansas
5. Rhode Island
6. California
7. Tennessee
8. Nevada
9. Virginia
10. Michigan
11. Pennsylvania
12. Arizona
13. Minnesota
14. Vermont
15. New Jersey
16. South Dakota
17. Wisconsin
18. New Mexico
19. Georgia
20. Connecticut

Senate Rankings 1.29.09

Senate: Status Quo

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority
Projected Senate: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 62-38 DEM (+3 DEM)
Wide Range: 56-44 DEM (+3 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+6 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-38-3 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 60-40 DEM or 61-39 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 0
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 3 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 6 GOP 3
2006/2008 Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 30%

* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated

Retirements/Open Seats

Democratic

Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not Running for Full Term)

Republican

Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)

Republican Defenses

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Florida, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Louisiana

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kansas

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Illinois

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. Ohio
2. Florida
3. Missouri
4. Kentucky
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Louisiana
8. Nevada
9. North Dakota
10. Kansas