Senate Ranking 9.21.08

Senate +5 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP if Obama wins, S.Q. or +1 GOP, contingent on Lieberman, if McCain wins for takeover)

Projected Senate: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM)

Narrow Range: 54-45-1 DEM (+4 DEM) to 57-42-1 DEM (+7 DEM)

Wide Range: 50-49-1 DEM (S.Q.) to 60-39-1 DEM (+10 DEM)

With Tossups Unassigned: 54-42-1-3 DEM

With Tossups Split 50/50: 55-44-1 (+5 DEM) to 56-43-1 (+6 DEM)

Current Tossup Winning Split: GOP 2 DEM 1

Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 3 DEM 0

Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better) DEM 4 GOP 0

Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse) DEM 10 GOP 1

Likelihood of Turnover: .2%

Switches from September 13th: None

Republican Defenses

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Virginia

Leans Democratic

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado

Tilts Democratic

Alaska

Tilts Republican

Oregon, Minnesota

Leans Republican

North Carolina, Mississippi (Special), Maine

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kentucky

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

New Jersey

Top 10 Senate Turnover Targets

1. Virginia (1)

2. New Mexico (2)

3. New Hampshire (3)

4. Colorado (4)

5. Alaska (5)

6. Oregon (7)

7. Minnesota (6)

8. Louisiana (8)

9. North Carolina (10)

10. Mississippi (Special) (9)