House Rankings 9.3.08

House +8 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM Vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)

Projected House: 244-191 DEM (+8 DEM)

Narrow Range: +1 DEM (237-198 DEM) to +20 DEM (256-179 DEM)

Wide Range: +19 GOP (218-217 GOP to +36 DEM (272-163 DEM)

Pundit Spread: +9 DEM (Cook: +10-11 DEM, Sabato +10 DEM, CQ: +8 DEM, Rothenberg: +6 DEM)

With Tossups Unassigned: 237-179-19 DEM

With Tossups Split 50/50: +10 DEM (246-189 DEM) or +11 DEM (247-188 DEM)

Current Tossup Split: GOP 63.2% DEM 36.8%

Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 6 GOP 0

Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 36 GOP 20

Likelihood of Turnover: .5%

Switches from August 6th: +1 DEM

From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Nevada 3rd

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (1)

New York 13th

Leans Democratic (5)

New York 25th, Arizona 1st, Illinois 11th, Virginia 11th, New Jersey 3rd

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (5)

New Jersey 7th, New Mexico 1st, Minnesota 3rd, Ohio 15th, Nevada 3rd

Tilts Republican/Tossup (9)

Ohio 16th, Connecticut 4th, Washington 8th, North Carolina 8th, Michigan 7th, Alaska At-Large, Colorado 4th, Louisiana 4th, Illinois 10th

Leans Republican (16)

New York 26th, New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Michigan 9th, Missouri 6th, New Mexico 2nd, Florida 24th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Florida 21st, Alabama 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Missouri 9th, Ohio 2nd, Florida 13th, West Virginia 2nd, Pennsylvania 6th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (7)

Pennsylvania 18th, California 4th, Idaho 1st, Nevada 2nd, Florida 8th, Florida 25th, Pennsylvania 15th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (13)

Wyoming At-Large, Illinois 6th, New Jersey 5th, Minnesota 6th, Virginia 10th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Illinois 18th, Texas 10th, Texas 7th, Maryland 1st, Minnesota 2nd, California 50th

Currently Safe (143)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (3)

Texas 22nd, Louisiana 6th, Alabama 5th

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (2)

Kansas 2nd, Pennsylvania 10th

Leans Democratic (15)

Florida 16th, New Hampshire 1st, Georgia 8th, Wisconsin 8th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 4th, Mississippi 1st, Kentucky 3rd, Illinois 14th, Indiana 9th, Oregon 5th, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 11th, Arizona 8th, Arizona 5th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Minnesota 1st, Kansas 3rd, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Georgia 12th, Connecticut 5th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (5)

Ohio 18th, New York 24th, New Hampshire 2nd, Pennsylvania 8th, Indiana 8th

Currently Safe (205)