Posts
Senate: +1 DEM
Current Senate: 60-40 DEM (+11 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 61-39 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (+1 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+5 DEM)
Wide Range: 55-45 DEM (+5 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+7 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-35-6 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 62-38 DEM (+2 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 4 DEM 2
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 5 DEM 1
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 7 GOP 5
Switches from Last Update:
Pennsylvania: GOP HOLD to DEM HOLD
DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of six to eight seats
GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of four to six seats
Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of one to three seats
Republican Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
New Hampshire
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Kentucky
Leans Republican
North Carolina, Louisiana
Democratic Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
Connecticut
Leans Democratic
Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado, Nevada
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Wisconsin, Arkansas
Top 10 Turnover Targets
1. New Hampshire (1)
2. Ohio (2)
3. Missouri (3)
4. Florida (5)
5. Kentucky (6)
6. Connecticut (7)
7. North Carolina (8)
8. Pennsylvania (4)
9. Illinois (NR)
10. Colorado (6)
Dropped Out: None
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Senate Rankings 4.25.09
Senate: +1 DEM
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for a filibuster proof majority)
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+6 DEM)
Wide Range: 55-45 DEM (+4 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+8 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 58-35-7 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM (+2 DEM) to 62-38 DEM (+3 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 5 DEM 2
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 6 DEM 1
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 8 GOP 4
Pundit Spread: +2-3 DEM (Cook: +1-2 DEM, Sabato: +1-2 DEM, CQ: +2-3 DEM, Rothenberg: +3 DEM, Swing State Project: +2-3 DEM)
DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of seven to nine seats
GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of three to five seats
Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of one to three seats
Republican Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
New Hampshire
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Florida, Kentucky
Leans Republican
North Carolina, Louisiana
Democratic Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
Connecticut
Leans Democratic
Illinois, Colorado, Nevada
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Wisconsin, Arkansas
Top 10 Turnover Targets
1. New Hampshire (1)
2. Ohio (2)
3. Missouri (4)
4. Pennsylvania (7)
5. Florida (3)
6. Kentucky (5)
7. Connecticut (NR)
8. North Carolina (8)
9. Illinois (NR)
10. Colorado (6)
Dropped Out: Louisiana (9), Nevada (10)
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for a filibuster proof majority)
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+6 DEM)
Wide Range: 55-45 DEM (+4 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+8 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 58-35-7 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM (+2 DEM) to 62-38 DEM (+3 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 5 DEM 2
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 6 DEM 1
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 8 GOP 4
Pundit Spread: +2-3 DEM (Cook: +1-2 DEM, Sabato: +1-2 DEM, CQ: +2-3 DEM, Rothenberg: +3 DEM, Swing State Project: +2-3 DEM)
DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of seven to nine seats
GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of three to five seats
Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of one to three seats
Republican Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
New Hampshire
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Florida, Kentucky
Leans Republican
North Carolina, Louisiana
Democratic Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
Connecticut
Leans Democratic
Illinois, Colorado, Nevada
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Wisconsin, Arkansas
Top 10 Turnover Targets
1. New Hampshire (1)
2. Ohio (2)
3. Missouri (4)
4. Pennsylvania (7)
5. Florida (3)
6. Kentucky (5)
7. Connecticut (NR)
8. North Carolina (8)
9. Illinois (NR)
10. Colorado (6)
Dropped Out: Louisiana (9), Nevada (10)
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
New York 20th Live Blog
New York 20th
Incumbent: Vacant (Kirsten Gillibrand appointed to the United States Senate)
Candidates: Scott Murphy (D) vs. St. Rep. Jim Tedisco (R)
District PVI: R +3
Polling: Murphy (D) 45% Tedisco (R) 41% (Siena 3/22-3/24)
Rating: Tilts Democratic Retention/Tossup
% Prediction: Murphy by 2%
100% Reporting (DEM HOLD?)
Murphy (D) 77,344 (50.02%)
Tedisco (R) 77,279 (49.98%)
10:45 PM: Well Murphy goes into the absentee ballot counting and probable recount with a sixty five vote lead. Still it looks like we'll have at least a wait of a couple of weeks before either candidate is sworn in.
10:19 PM: And Murphy takes the lead with three precients still outstanding in Tedisco friendly Saratoga county.
10:12 PM: At this point it seems obvious we're going to a recount with the main question being which candidate is ahead going in.
9:34 PM: And as soon as I say that I'm worried, Murphy takes the lead. So..umm...I'm still very worried, honest.
9:32 PM: For whatever its worth, I've got a bad feeling about this race.
9:25 PM: Countering the positive Democratic augers from Warren County, Tedisco is winning Saratoga County, a county carried by both the President four months ago and Senator Gillibrand in 2006, by sixteen points. Taking into considering that roughly 30-35% of the district's votes come from that county and Murphy's math becomes rather difficult unless he can make up the balance somewhere else.
9:21 PM: After a decent sized vote dump, Tedisco hold on to his lead of roughly three points. One positive sign for the Democrats is that Murphy has a twelve point lead in Warren County which the President won by only three points.
9:18 PM: Tedisco hops out to an early narrow lead. The precincts reporting are spread out in both Democratic and Republican strongholds but it's obviously still far too early to know much of anything.
9:14 PM: Nothing reported as of yet.
8:23 PM: I'll be starting the live blog at 9 PM if I'm able to get home by that time (Then again I'm assuming that no one is actually reading this so...)
Incumbent: Vacant (Kirsten Gillibrand appointed to the United States Senate)
Candidates: Scott Murphy (D) vs. St. Rep. Jim Tedisco (R)
District PVI: R +3
Polling: Murphy (D) 45% Tedisco (R) 41% (Siena 3/22-3/24)
Rating: Tilts Democratic Retention/Tossup
% Prediction: Murphy by 2%
100% Reporting (DEM HOLD?)
Murphy (D) 77,344 (50.02%)
Tedisco (R) 77,279 (49.98%)
10:45 PM: Well Murphy goes into the absentee ballot counting and probable recount with a sixty five vote lead. Still it looks like we'll have at least a wait of a couple of weeks before either candidate is sworn in.
10:19 PM: And Murphy takes the lead with three precients still outstanding in Tedisco friendly Saratoga county.
10:12 PM: At this point it seems obvious we're going to a recount with the main question being which candidate is ahead going in.
9:34 PM: And as soon as I say that I'm worried, Murphy takes the lead. So..umm...I'm still very worried, honest.
9:32 PM: For whatever its worth, I've got a bad feeling about this race.
9:25 PM: Countering the positive Democratic augers from Warren County, Tedisco is winning Saratoga County, a county carried by both the President four months ago and Senator Gillibrand in 2006, by sixteen points. Taking into considering that roughly 30-35% of the district's votes come from that county and Murphy's math becomes rather difficult unless he can make up the balance somewhere else.
9:21 PM: After a decent sized vote dump, Tedisco hold on to his lead of roughly three points. One positive sign for the Democrats is that Murphy has a twelve point lead in Warren County which the President won by only three points.
9:18 PM: Tedisco hops out to an early narrow lead. The precincts reporting are spread out in both Democratic and Republican strongholds but it's obviously still far too early to know much of anything.
9:14 PM: Nothing reported as of yet.
8:23 PM: I'll be starting the live blog at 9 PM if I'm able to get home by that time (Then again I'm assuming that no one is actually reading this so...)
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Senate Rankings 2/26/09
Senate: +1 DEM
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority)
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
Wide Range: 57-43 DEM (+2 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+8 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-37-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM (+2 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 1
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 8 GOP 2
2006/2008 Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 55%
DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of seven to nine seats
GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of one to three seats
Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of two to four seats
* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated
Retirements/Open Seats
Democratic
Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not running for full term)
Republican
Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
New Hampshire-Sen. Judd Gregg ("Probably" Retiring)
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)
Republican Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
New Hampshire
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Ohio, Florida, Missouri
Leans Republican
Kentucky, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Louisiana
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Kansas
Democratic Senate Defenses
Leans Democratic
Colorado, Nevada
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Illinois
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Wisconsin, North Dakota
Top 10 Turnover Targets
1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Colorado
7. Pennsylvania
8. North Carolina
9. Louisiana
10. Nevada
House Rankings 2/26/09
House: +2 GOP
Current House: 254-178 DEM with 3 DEM vacancies (+40 GOP needed for turnover)
Projected House: 255-180 DEM (+2 GOP)
Narrow Range: 253-182 DEM (+4 GOP) to 257-178 DEM (S.Q.)
Wide Range: 236-199 DEM (+21 GOP) to 263-172 DEM (+6 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 253-178-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 255-180 DEM (+2 GOP)
Current Tossup Leads: DEM 2 GOP 2
Current Tossup Defenses: DEM 4 GOP 0
Strong Turnover Chances: GOP 1 DEM 1
Legitimate Targets: GOP 22 DEM 6
2006/2008 Final Prediction: 840/870 (96.6%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 1%
DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of roughly four to eight seats
GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of roughly nineteen to twenty three seats
Most Likely Scenario: A Republican gain of roughly five to ten seats
House Vacancies
Democratic (3)
California 32nd-Rep. Hilda Solis (Secretary of Labor) SAFE DEM
Illinois 5th-Rep.Rahm Emanuel (White House Chief of Staff) SAFE DEM
New York 20th-Rep. Kristen Gillibrand (United States Senate) LEANS GOP
Republican (0)
Potential New Seats
District of Columbia At-Large SAFE DEM
Utah 4th SOLID GOP
Republican Defenses
Likely Democratic (1)
Louisiana 2nd
Leans Republican (5)
Washington 8th, Pennsylvania 15th, Pennsylvania 6th, California 44th, Alaska At-Large
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (5)
Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Minnesota 6th, California 3rd, South Carolina 1st
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (11)
Michigan 11th, California 50th, Illinois 10th, Iowa 4th, Florida 16th, California 45th, New York 26th, Alabama 3rd, California 26th, Florida 13th, Florida 25th
Currently Safe (156)
Democratic Defenses
Leans Republican (1)
New York 20th (Special)
Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)
Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd
Tilts Democratic/Tossup (2)
Maryland 1st, Mississippi 1st
Leans Democratic (17)
New Hampshire 2nd, Colorado 4th, Virginia 5th, Florida 8th, North Carolina 8th, Michigan 7th, Texas 17th, Georgia 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, Alabama 5th, New Mexico 2nd, Virginia 2nd, New York 29th, New York 24th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, New Hampshire 1st
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (1)
New York 19th
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (20)
Illinois 14th, California 11th, Michigan 9th, Nevada 3rd, New York 13th, Indiana 9th, Ohio 18th, Illinois 8th, Arizona 5th, Indiana 2nd, Kansas 3rd, Ohio 16th, Texas 23rd, Florida 24th, Arizona 1st, Pennsylvania 4th, Arizona 8th, Illinois 11th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Virginia 11th
Currently Safe (214)
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Senate Rankings 2.5.09
Senate: +1 DEM
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
Wide Range: 56-44 DEM (+3 GOP) to 66-34 DEM (+7 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-37-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 1
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 7 GOP 3
2006/2008 Final Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 55%
* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated
Retirements/Open Seats
Democratic
Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not Running for Full Term)
Republican
Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
New Hampshire-Sen. Bonnie Newman (Appointed/Not running for new term)**
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)
** Assumes that Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) is confirmed as Secretary of Commerce
Republican Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
New Hampshire
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Ohio, Florida, Missouri
Leans Republican
Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Louisiana
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Kansas
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive
North Carolina, Iowa
Democratic Defenses
Leans Democratic
Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Wisconsin
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Illinois
Top 10 Turnover Targets
1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Pennsylvania
7. Colorado
8. Louisiana
9. Nevada
10. North Dakota
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Governor Rankings 1.29.09
Governorships: +1 GOP
Current Governorships: 28-22 DEM (+4 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Governorships: 27-23 DEM (+1 GOP)
Narrow Range: 26-24 GOP (+4 GOP) to 28-22 DEM (S.Q.)
Wide Range: 33-17 GOP (+11 GOP) to 38-12 DEM (+10 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 24-22-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 26-24 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: DEM 3 GOP 1
Current Tossup Defenses: DEM 3 GOP 1
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): GOP 4 DEM 3
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): GOP 11 DEM 10
2006/2008 Prediction Accuracy: 47/47 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 10%
Open Seats
Democratic
Kansas-Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (Term-Limited)
Maine-Gov. John Baldacci (Term-Limited)
Michigan-Gov. Jennifer Granholm (Term-Limited)
New Mexico-Gov. Bill Richardson (Term-Limited)
Oklahoma-Gov. Brad Henry (Term-Limited)
Oregon-Gov. Ted Kulongoski (Term-Limited)
Pennsylvania-Gov. Ed Rendell (Term-Limited)
Tennessee-Gov. Phil Bredesen (Term-Limited)
Virginia-Gov. Tim Kaine (Term-Limited)
Wyoming-Gov. Dave Freudenthal (Term-Limited)
Republican
Alabama-Gov. Bob Riley (Term-Limited)
California-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (Term-Limited)
Georgia-Gov. Sonny Perdue (Term-Limited)
Hawaii-Gov. Linda Lingle (Term-Limited)
Rhode Island-Gov. Don Carcieri (Term-Limited)
South Carolina-Gov. Mark Sanford (Term-Limited)
South Dakota-Gov. Mike Rounds (Term-Limited)
Republican Defenses
Leans Democratic
Hawaii, Rhode Island, California
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
Nevada
Leans Republican
Arizona, Minnesota, Vermont, South Dakota, Georgia, Connecticut
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Alabama
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive
Florida
Democratic Defenses
Leans Republican
Wyoming, Oklahoma, Kansas, Tennessee
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Virginia (2009)
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
Michigan, Pennsylvania
Leans Democratic
New Jersey (2009), Wisconsin, New Mexico, Illinois
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Ohio, Maine, Oregon
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Colorado, Iowa
Top Twenty Turnover Targets
1. Wyoming
2. Hawaii
3. Oklahoma
4. Kansas
5. Rhode Island
6. California
7. Tennessee
8. Nevada
9. Virginia
10. Michigan
11. Pennsylvania
12. Arizona
13. Minnesota
14. Vermont
15. New Jersey
16. South Dakota
17. Wisconsin
18. New Mexico
19. Georgia
20. Connecticut
Senate Rankings 1.29.09
Senate: Status Quo
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority
Projected Senate: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 62-38 DEM (+3 DEM)
Wide Range: 56-44 DEM (+3 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+6 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-38-3 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 60-40 DEM or 61-39 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 0
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 3 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 6 GOP 3
2006/2008 Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 30%
* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated
Retirements/Open Seats
Democratic
Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not Running for Full Term)
Republican
Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)
Republican Defenses
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Ohio, Florida, Missouri
Leans Republican
Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Louisiana
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Kansas
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive
New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa
Democratic Defenses
Leans Democratic
Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Wisconsin
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Illinois
Top 10 Turnover Targets
1. Ohio
2. Florida
3. Missouri
4. Kentucky
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Louisiana
8. Nevada
9. North Dakota
10. Kansas
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Election Night Big Board and Live Blog
President of the United States (270 to win) (DEM GAIN)
Barack Obama (D) 365 (365) (+113)
John McCain (R) 173 (173) (-113)
United States Senate (51 needed for majority) (DEM HOLD)
Democrats 58 (58) (+8)
Republicans 41 (42) (-7)
Independents 0 (0) (-1)
Outstanding 1 (1 GOP leading)
United States House (218 needed for majority)(DEM HOLD)
Democrats 257 (257) (+21)
Republicans 178 (178) (-21)
Governorships (26 needed for majority)(DEM HOLD)
Democrats 29 (29) (NC)
Republicans 21 (21) (NC)
The Live Blog:
11/5/08 5:50 PM: While Gordon Smith clings to a surprising and narrow lead in the Oregon Senate Race, the number of outstanding ballots in Portland and Eugene leads me to believe that Merkely will win by roughly 100,000 votes once they are all counted. Therefore I have moved Oregon into the Dem leading column despite the simply fact that Smith still leads in actual counted votes for the moment. Included below are the predicted distribution of the remaining vote. (calculated by making the rough assumption that counties will continue to vote in the same percentage as has already been counted). I'll be continuing to track this race at least until Portland reports in full.
Oregon: Smith +1,000
Benton (65% Reporting)-Merkley +4,100
Clatsop (80% Reporting)-Merkley +200
Columbia (86% Reporting)-Merkley +100
Coos (89% Reporting)-Smith +300
Douglas (81% Reporting)-Smith +2,900
Josephine (79% Reporting)-Smith +2,200
Klamath (76% Reporting)- Smith +3,800
Lane (45% Reporting)-Merkley +29,500
Malheur (83% Reporting)-Smith +1,000
Marion (59% Reporting)-Smith +6,400
Multnomah (Portland) (49% Reporting)-Merkely +80,000
Washington (78% Reporting)-Merkely +1,400
Estimated Final Result: Merkely +97,000
11/4/08 10:16 PM: Down goes Shays (finally)
11/4/08 9:47 PM:We are now confident enough to project that Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States with no fewer than 277 electoral votes. We also believe that the networks will call the election for Senator Obama at 11 PM when the polls in California close.
11/4/08 9:28 PM: Obama draws first blood as NBC and Fox call Ohio for Obama. And New Mexico also is called for Obama by NBC. Which by my count is enough.
11/4/08 9:06 PM: Some more exits
Arizona: McCain 49.5% Obama 48.5%
Colorado: Obama 52.6% McCain 45.4%
New Mexico: Obama 55.7% McCain 42.8%
Colorado Senate: Udall 51.6% Schaffer 44%
Louisiana Senate: Landrieu 55.2% Kennedy 42.8%
Minnesota Senate: Franken 47.7% Coleman 37.8% Barkley 14.5%
11/14/08 9:02 PM: It's quite clear by this point that Barack Obama will carry all the Kerry states (no pun intended) but he has yet to break through in a single Bush 04 state and the early call in North Dakota combined with McCain's lead in Virginia is making me a tad nervous.
11/4/08 8:18 PM: With Jeanne Shaheen's projected victory in New Hampshire, we now project that the Democrats will retain control of the United States Senate
11/4/08 8:14 PM: Right now McCain doesn't just need an inside straight but a royal flush, maybe he'll get it but if the exits are right the line will crumble and crumble in many places.
11/4/08 8:07 PM: NBC has called Pennsylvania for Barack Obama, the major path for McCain appears to have closed off assuming NBC is right of course.
11/4/08 8:02 PM:More exits again
Florida: Obama 49.5% McCain 48.5%
Missouri: Obama 53.1% McCain 45.4%
Mississippi Senate: Wicker 51.6% Musgrove 48.4%
11/4/08 7:58 PM: You know, I'm starting to think that I might not be particularly good at this whole live blogging thing.
11/4/08 7:30 PM: Even more crappy exits
North Carolina: Obama 51.4% McCain 47.6%
Ohio: Obama 53% McCain 45%
West Virginia: McCain 53.9% Obama 44.1%
North Carolina Senate: Hagan 51.8% Dole 43.2%
11/4/08 7:00 PM: I know, I know exits polls suck but still here's the early ones
Indiana: Obama 52.2% McCain 46.4%
Virginia: Obama 54.2% McCain 44.9%
Georgia: McCain 49.5% Obama 48%
South Carolina: McCain 52.2% Obama 46.4%
Georgia Senate: Chambliss 49.1% Martin 46%
Kentucky Senate: McConnell 53.8% Lunsford 46.1%
11/4/08 7:00 PM- NBC calls Kentucky for McCain and Vermont for Obama, Indiana too close to call. Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina too early to call.
11/4/08 6:55 PM-Obama slightly ahead in Indiana even without Gary or Indy reporting, while Kentucky is close at the moment but only because Louisville just did a massive vote dump. Oh yeah, the updating every race is a crazy idea, I think I'm going back to my original plan unless a race is close and has a large percentage of the vote reporting.
11/4/08 6:20 PM-And of course it's time for the typical hour long lull until more states close at 7.
11/4/08 6:00 PM- We are confident enough to project that the Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives
11/4/08 6:00 PM- We are confident enough to project that the Democrats will retain a majority of governorships
11/4/08 6:00 PM- As polls close in eastern Indiana and Kentucky, we are ready to make the following calls in races where one party is predicted to win by at least fourteen points (none of that wussy waiting for people to actually stop voting needed for me to make some calls) :)
Presidential Race:
Senator Obama: 13 states and D.C. for 190 electoral votes
Senator McCain: 7 states for 42 electoral votes
Senate: 12 seats (including a pickup in Virginia) for the Democrats and 11 seats for the Republicans
House: 218 seats for the Democrats and 143 seats for the Republicans
Governorships: 4 governorships for the Democrats and 2 governorships for the Republicans
11/4/08 6:00 PM- Game On
11/4/08 4:19 PM-Well, we're about 100 minutes away from the first poll closings and the official start of election night. (Although the first time we'll actually get any results is probably 7 P.M.). Before I take another quick nap and order the election night pizza, I thought I should take a moment to show how results will be reported on here. Outside of the big board which should provide a nice basic overview, I will be providing more detailed data for the individual races than I originally planned including the current margin in both raw votes and percentage, the percentage of votes already counted, and if a race is still too close to call with at least 60% reporting, the remaining percentage needed for the candidate currently trailing to take the lead. For example, let's say that in the North Carolina Senate Race Kay Hagan is leading Liddy Dole by 150,000 votes or 5 percentage points with 80% reporting, the entry for the North Carolina Senate Race would look something like this.
North Carolina (Hagan +150,000/+5%) (80% Reporting) (Dole needs 63%)
Anyway, I'll be back on starting at 6, but if you have any questions feel free to leave them in the comments and I'll try to respond as quickly as possible. Thanks .
11/2/08 8:38 AM-With the movement of Pennsylvania 4th from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic, I will be calling the House of Representatives for Democratic Retention at 6 PM EST Tuesday Night. Of course this presumes that there are no other moves dropping the Democrats back below the 218 threshold in the next 58 hours. While not a particularly huge surprise, Democrats should be happy to start election night with a congressional chamber all ready in hand.
11/1/08 9:40 PM-Okay while I'm still trying to work out a few bugs, I think things are stable enough that I can give a brief overview of my plan for Tuesday night. Election coverage will consist of two major parts, the liveblog and the big board. The live blog will start at 6:00 PM EST on election day (the same time the polls in eastern Indiana and Kentucky close). My goal is to provide insight on both the big races and the smaller ones which might get overlooked by a news media certain to focus on the presidential race. The second section is the big board which will track the results of 28 state level presidential contests, 13 senate seats, 75 house seats and 5 governorships (with the possibility of adding still more races). Basically, I am planning on tracking every race that I rate as likely, leans or tilts. Meanwhile all races that are rated as solid or safe heading into election night will be automatically projected for the leading party at 6 PM, regardless of whether or not polls have closed yet in that state, as can be currently seen in the toplines and presidential projection map. As for the tracking itself, instead of trying to keep up with transcribing the numbers from CNN, I'm simply going to use color coding. Light Blue or Salmon will indicate that either the Democrat or Republican is leading while a darker hue will indicate that the race has been called. As for the top lines, the first number indicates the number of electoral votes/seats/governorships currently projected. The first set of numbers in parentheses reflects the current prediction (initially the final prediction numbers from November 3rd, with adjustments as the night goes on) while the second set of parentheses indicates the overall change from the previous election. Finally, assuming that everything goes well I will be updating the election map every fifteen minutes. Feel free to ask any questions and leave any comments about the format of the election night live blog and I hope to see everyone (metaphorically speaking) on Tuesday.
11/1/08 8:22 PM-Still Testing
Obama Presidential Targets
1. Iowa (DEM GAIN)
2. New Mexico (DEM GAIN)
3. Colorado (DEM GAIN)
-------Predicted Takeover Line--------
4. Virginia (DEM GAIN)
5. Nevada (DEM GAIN)
6. Ohio (DEM GAIN)
7. Florida (DEM GAIN)
Barack Obama (D) 365 (365) (+113)
John McCain (R) 173 (173) (-113)
United States Senate (51 needed for majority) (DEM HOLD)
Democrats 58 (58) (+8)
Republicans 41 (42) (-7)
Independents 0 (0) (-1)
Outstanding 1 (1 GOP leading)
United States House (218 needed for majority)(DEM HOLD)
Democrats 257 (257) (+21)
Republicans 178 (178) (-21)
Governorships (26 needed for majority)(DEM HOLD)
Democrats 29 (29) (NC)
Republicans 21 (21) (NC)
The Live Blog:
11/5/08 5:50 PM: While Gordon Smith clings to a surprising and narrow lead in the Oregon Senate Race, the number of outstanding ballots in Portland and Eugene leads me to believe that Merkely will win by roughly 100,000 votes once they are all counted. Therefore I have moved Oregon into the Dem leading column despite the simply fact that Smith still leads in actual counted votes for the moment. Included below are the predicted distribution of the remaining vote. (calculated by making the rough assumption that counties will continue to vote in the same percentage as has already been counted). I'll be continuing to track this race at least until Portland reports in full.
Oregon: Smith +1,000
Benton (65% Reporting)-Merkley +4,100
Clatsop (80% Reporting)-Merkley +200
Columbia (86% Reporting)-Merkley +100
Coos (89% Reporting)-Smith +300
Douglas (81% Reporting)-Smith +2,900
Josephine (79% Reporting)-Smith +2,200
Klamath (76% Reporting)- Smith +3,800
Lane (45% Reporting)-Merkley +29,500
Malheur (83% Reporting)-Smith +1,000
Marion (59% Reporting)-Smith +6,400
Multnomah (Portland) (49% Reporting)-Merkely +80,000
Washington (78% Reporting)-Merkely +1,400
Estimated Final Result: Merkely +97,000
11/4/08 10:16 PM: Down goes Shays (finally)
11/4/08 9:47 PM:We are now confident enough to project that Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States with no fewer than 277 electoral votes. We also believe that the networks will call the election for Senator Obama at 11 PM when the polls in California close.
11/4/08 9:28 PM: Obama draws first blood as NBC and Fox call Ohio for Obama. And New Mexico also is called for Obama by NBC. Which by my count is enough.
11/4/08 9:06 PM: Some more exits
Arizona: McCain 49.5% Obama 48.5%
Colorado: Obama 52.6% McCain 45.4%
New Mexico: Obama 55.7% McCain 42.8%
Colorado Senate: Udall 51.6% Schaffer 44%
Louisiana Senate: Landrieu 55.2% Kennedy 42.8%
Minnesota Senate: Franken 47.7% Coleman 37.8% Barkley 14.5%
11/14/08 9:02 PM: It's quite clear by this point that Barack Obama will carry all the Kerry states (no pun intended) but he has yet to break through in a single Bush 04 state and the early call in North Dakota combined with McCain's lead in Virginia is making me a tad nervous.
11/4/08 8:18 PM: With Jeanne Shaheen's projected victory in New Hampshire, we now project that the Democrats will retain control of the United States Senate
11/4/08 8:14 PM: Right now McCain doesn't just need an inside straight but a royal flush, maybe he'll get it but if the exits are right the line will crumble and crumble in many places.
11/4/08 8:07 PM: NBC has called Pennsylvania for Barack Obama, the major path for McCain appears to have closed off assuming NBC is right of course.
11/4/08 8:02 PM:More exits again
Florida: Obama 49.5% McCain 48.5%
Missouri: Obama 53.1% McCain 45.4%
Mississippi Senate: Wicker 51.6% Musgrove 48.4%
11/4/08 7:58 PM: You know, I'm starting to think that I might not be particularly good at this whole live blogging thing.
11/4/08 7:30 PM: Even more crappy exits
North Carolina: Obama 51.4% McCain 47.6%
Ohio: Obama 53% McCain 45%
West Virginia: McCain 53.9% Obama 44.1%
North Carolina Senate: Hagan 51.8% Dole 43.2%
11/4/08 7:00 PM: I know, I know exits polls suck but still here's the early ones
Indiana: Obama 52.2% McCain 46.4%
Virginia: Obama 54.2% McCain 44.9%
Georgia: McCain 49.5% Obama 48%
South Carolina: McCain 52.2% Obama 46.4%
Georgia Senate: Chambliss 49.1% Martin 46%
Kentucky Senate: McConnell 53.8% Lunsford 46.1%
11/4/08 7:00 PM- NBC calls Kentucky for McCain and Vermont for Obama, Indiana too close to call. Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina too early to call.
11/4/08 6:55 PM-Obama slightly ahead in Indiana even without Gary or Indy reporting, while Kentucky is close at the moment but only because Louisville just did a massive vote dump. Oh yeah, the updating every race is a crazy idea, I think I'm going back to my original plan unless a race is close and has a large percentage of the vote reporting.
11/4/08 6:20 PM-And of course it's time for the typical hour long lull until more states close at 7.
11/4/08 6:00 PM- We are confident enough to project that the Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives
11/4/08 6:00 PM- We are confident enough to project that the Democrats will retain a majority of governorships
11/4/08 6:00 PM- As polls close in eastern Indiana and Kentucky, we are ready to make the following calls in races where one party is predicted to win by at least fourteen points (none of that wussy waiting for people to actually stop voting needed for me to make some calls) :)
Presidential Race:
Senator Obama: 13 states and D.C. for 190 electoral votes
Senator McCain: 7 states for 42 electoral votes
Senate: 12 seats (including a pickup in Virginia) for the Democrats and 11 seats for the Republicans
House: 218 seats for the Democrats and 143 seats for the Republicans
Governorships: 4 governorships for the Democrats and 2 governorships for the Republicans
11/4/08 6:00 PM- Game On
11/4/08 4:19 PM-Well, we're about 100 minutes away from the first poll closings and the official start of election night. (Although the first time we'll actually get any results is probably 7 P.M.). Before I take another quick nap and order the election night pizza, I thought I should take a moment to show how results will be reported on here. Outside of the big board which should provide a nice basic overview, I will be providing more detailed data for the individual races than I originally planned including the current margin in both raw votes and percentage, the percentage of votes already counted, and if a race is still too close to call with at least 60% reporting, the remaining percentage needed for the candidate currently trailing to take the lead. For example, let's say that in the North Carolina Senate Race Kay Hagan is leading Liddy Dole by 150,000 votes or 5 percentage points with 80% reporting, the entry for the North Carolina Senate Race would look something like this.
North Carolina (Hagan +150,000/+5%) (80% Reporting) (Dole needs 63%)
Anyway, I'll be back on starting at 6, but if you have any questions feel free to leave them in the comments and I'll try to respond as quickly as possible. Thanks .
11/2/08 8:38 AM-With the movement of Pennsylvania 4th from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic, I will be calling the House of Representatives for Democratic Retention at 6 PM EST Tuesday Night. Of course this presumes that there are no other moves dropping the Democrats back below the 218 threshold in the next 58 hours. While not a particularly huge surprise, Democrats should be happy to start election night with a congressional chamber all ready in hand.
11/1/08 9:40 PM-Okay while I'm still trying to work out a few bugs, I think things are stable enough that I can give a brief overview of my plan for Tuesday night. Election coverage will consist of two major parts, the liveblog and the big board. The live blog will start at 6:00 PM EST on election day (the same time the polls in eastern Indiana and Kentucky close). My goal is to provide insight on both the big races and the smaller ones which might get overlooked by a news media certain to focus on the presidential race. The second section is the big board which will track the results of 28 state level presidential contests, 13 senate seats, 75 house seats and 5 governorships (with the possibility of adding still more races). Basically, I am planning on tracking every race that I rate as likely, leans or tilts. Meanwhile all races that are rated as solid or safe heading into election night will be automatically projected for the leading party at 6 PM, regardless of whether or not polls have closed yet in that state, as can be currently seen in the toplines and presidential projection map. As for the tracking itself, instead of trying to keep up with transcribing the numbers from CNN, I'm simply going to use color coding. Light Blue or Salmon will indicate that either the Democrat or Republican is leading while a darker hue will indicate that the race has been called. As for the top lines, the first number indicates the number of electoral votes/seats/governorships currently projected. The first set of numbers in parentheses reflects the current prediction (initially the final prediction numbers from November 3rd, with adjustments as the night goes on) while the second set of parentheses indicates the overall change from the previous election. Finally, assuming that everything goes well I will be updating the election map every fifteen minutes. Feel free to ask any questions and leave any comments about the format of the election night live blog and I hope to see everyone (metaphorically speaking) on Tuesday.
11/1/08 8:22 PM-Still Testing
Obama Presidential Targets
1. Iowa (DEM GAIN)
2. New Mexico (DEM GAIN)
3. Colorado (DEM GAIN)
-------Predicted Takeover Line--------
4. Virginia (DEM GAIN)
5. Nevada (DEM GAIN)
6. Ohio (DEM GAIN)
7. Florida (DEM GAIN)
8. Missouri
9. North Carolina (DEM GAIN)
------Predicted Turnover Line----------
10. Indiana (DEM GAIN)
11. Montana
12. North Dakota
13. Georgia
14. Arizona
15. South Dakota
16. Arkansas
17. West Virginia
18. South Carolina
19. Louisiana
20. Texas
21. Mississippi
22. Kentucky
23. Tennessee
McCain Presidential Targets
1. Pennsylvania
2. New Hampshire
3. Minnesota
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
Democratic Senate Targets
1. Virginia (DEM GAIN)
2. New Mexico (DEM GAIN)
3. Colorado (DEM GAIN)
4. New Hampshire (DEM GAIN)
5. Alaska (DEM GAIN)
6. Oregon (DEM GAIN)
7. North Carolina (DEM GAIN)
8. Minnesota (Recount)
-----Predicted Turnover Line-------
9. Georgia
10. Kentucky
11. Mississippi (Special)
12. Maine
Republican Senate Targets
1. Louisiana
Democratic House Targets
1. New York 13th (DEM GAIN)
2. New York 25th (DEM GAIN)
3. Virginia 11th (DEM GAIN)
4. Florida 24th (DEM GAIN)
5. Arizona 1st (DEM GAIN)
6. Illinois 11th (DEM GAIN)
7. Ohio 16th (DEM GAIN)
8. Alaska At-Large
9. Ohio 15th (DEM GAIN)
10. New Mexico 1st (DEM GAIN)
11. New Jersey 3rd (DEM GAIN)
12. New York 29th (DEM GAIN)
13. Michigan 9th (DEM GAIN)
14. North Carolina 8th (DEM GAIN)
15. Florida 8th (DEM GAIN)
16. Colorado 4th (DEM GAIN)
17. Pennsylvania 3rd (DEM GAIN)
18. Connecticut 4th (DEM GAIN)
19. Nevada 3rd (DEM GAIN)
20. New Mexico 2nd (DEM GAIN)
21. Washington 8th
22. Minnesota 6th
23. Michigan 7th (DEM GAIN)
24. Minnesota 3rd
25. New Jersey 7th
26. Ohio 1st (DEM GAIN)
27. Idaho 1st (DEM GAIN)
28. Illinois 10th
29. California 4th
--------Predicted Turnover Line--------
30. Louisiana 4th
31. Florida 25th
32. Florida 21st
33. Alabama 2nd (DEM GAIN)
34. Missouri 9th
35. Maryland 1st (DEM GAIN)
36. New York 26th
37. Kentucky 2nd
38. Nebraska 2nd
39. Virginia 2nd (DEM GAIN)
40. Virginia 5th (DEM GAIN)
41. Nevada 2nd
42. Ohio 2nd
43. Wyoming At-Large
44. Arizona 3rd
45. Indiana 3rd
46. Texas 7th
47. West Virginia 2nd
48. Texas 10th
49. South Carolina 1st
50. Pennsylvania 18th
51. California 50th
52. Florida 13th
53. New Jersey 5th
54. Iowa 4th
55. Missouri 6th
56. Pennsylvania 15th
Republican House Targets
1. Florida 16th (GOP GAIN)
2. Texas 22nd (GOP GAIN)
3. Pennsylvania 11th
---------Predicted Turnover Line------------
4. Alabama 5th
5. Kansas 2nd (GOP GAIN)
6. Louisiana 6th (GOP GAIN)
7. New Hampshire 1st
8. Georgia 8th
9. Pennsylvania 12th
10. California 11th
11. Wisconsin 8th
12. Pennsylvania 10th
13. Mississippi 1st
14. New York 20th
15. Arizona 5th
16. Arizona 8th
17. Texas 23rd
18. Illinois 14th
-----------------------------
32. Louisiana 2nd (GOP GAIN)
Democratic Governor Targets
1. Missouri (DEM GAIN)
-------Predicted Turnover Line--------
2. Indiana
3. Vermont
Republican Governor Targets
1. North Carolina
2. Washington
9. North Carolina (DEM GAIN)
------Predicted Turnover Line----------
10. Indiana (DEM GAIN)
11. Montana
12. North Dakota
13. Georgia
14. Arizona
15. South Dakota
16. Arkansas
17. West Virginia
18. South Carolina
19. Louisiana
20. Texas
21. Mississippi
22. Kentucky
23. Tennessee
McCain Presidential Targets
1. Pennsylvania
2. New Hampshire
3. Minnesota
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
Democratic Senate Targets
1. Virginia (DEM GAIN)
2. New Mexico (DEM GAIN)
3. Colorado (DEM GAIN)
4. New Hampshire (DEM GAIN)
5. Alaska (DEM GAIN)
6. Oregon (DEM GAIN)
7. North Carolina (DEM GAIN)
8. Minnesota (Recount)
-----Predicted Turnover Line-------
9. Georgia
10. Kentucky
11. Mississippi (Special)
12. Maine
Republican Senate Targets
1. Louisiana
Democratic House Targets
1. New York 13th (DEM GAIN)
2. New York 25th (DEM GAIN)
3. Virginia 11th (DEM GAIN)
4. Florida 24th (DEM GAIN)
5. Arizona 1st (DEM GAIN)
6. Illinois 11th (DEM GAIN)
7. Ohio 16th (DEM GAIN)
8. Alaska At-Large
9. Ohio 15th (DEM GAIN)
10. New Mexico 1st (DEM GAIN)
11. New Jersey 3rd (DEM GAIN)
12. New York 29th (DEM GAIN)
13. Michigan 9th (DEM GAIN)
14. North Carolina 8th (DEM GAIN)
15. Florida 8th (DEM GAIN)
16. Colorado 4th (DEM GAIN)
17. Pennsylvania 3rd (DEM GAIN)
18. Connecticut 4th (DEM GAIN)
19. Nevada 3rd (DEM GAIN)
20. New Mexico 2nd (DEM GAIN)
21. Washington 8th
22. Minnesota 6th
23. Michigan 7th (DEM GAIN)
24. Minnesota 3rd
25. New Jersey 7th
26. Ohio 1st (DEM GAIN)
27. Idaho 1st (DEM GAIN)
28. Illinois 10th
29. California 4th
--------Predicted Turnover Line--------
30. Louisiana 4th
31. Florida 25th
32. Florida 21st
33. Alabama 2nd (DEM GAIN)
34. Missouri 9th
35. Maryland 1st (DEM GAIN)
36. New York 26th
37. Kentucky 2nd
38. Nebraska 2nd
39. Virginia 2nd (DEM GAIN)
40. Virginia 5th (DEM GAIN)
41. Nevada 2nd
42. Ohio 2nd
43. Wyoming At-Large
44. Arizona 3rd
45. Indiana 3rd
46. Texas 7th
47. West Virginia 2nd
48. Texas 10th
49. South Carolina 1st
50. Pennsylvania 18th
51. California 50th
52. Florida 13th
53. New Jersey 5th
54. Iowa 4th
55. Missouri 6th
56. Pennsylvania 15th
Republican House Targets
1. Florida 16th (GOP GAIN)
2. Texas 22nd (GOP GAIN)
3. Pennsylvania 11th
---------Predicted Turnover Line------------
4. Alabama 5th
5. Kansas 2nd (GOP GAIN)
6. Louisiana 6th (GOP GAIN)
7. New Hampshire 1st
8. Georgia 8th
9. Pennsylvania 12th
10. California 11th
11. Wisconsin 8th
12. Pennsylvania 10th
13. Mississippi 1st
14. New York 20th
15. Arizona 5th
16. Arizona 8th
17. Texas 23rd
18. Illinois 14th
-----------------------------
32. Louisiana 2nd (GOP GAIN)
Democratic Governor Targets
1. Missouri (DEM GAIN)
-------Predicted Turnover Line--------
2. Indiana
3. Vermont
Republican Governor Targets
1. North Carolina
2. Washington
Monday, November 3, 2008
House Ratings Final
House: +26 DEM
Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 262-173 DEM (+26 DEM)
Narrow Range: 250-185 DEM (+14 DEM) to 265-170 DEM (+29 DEM)
Wide Range: 227-208 DEM (+9 GOP) to 283-152 DEM (+47 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 250-170-15 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 257-178 (+21 DEM) to 258-177 (+22 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 12 GOP 3
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 13 DEM 2
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 18 GOP 2
Targets in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 48 GOP 12
2006 Accuracy: 420/435 (96.6%) (Predicted: +29 DEM, Actual: +30 DEM)
Long Story Short: The Democrats are certain to maintain control of the House of Representatives gaining at least twenty seats, with an excellent chance of forming the largest house majority, for either party, since 1992.
Long Story Long: Tomorrow Afternoon (I hope)
* Pundit Spread determined by assigning all seats to party currently favored and dividing any remaining tossups evenly between the two major parties
Switches from October 30th: +3 DEM
From GOP HOLD to DEM GAIN: Ohio 1st, Idaho 1st, California 4th
Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM
†-December runoff currently projected
Republican Defenses (199)
Likely Democratic (3)
New York 13th, New York 25th, Virginia 11th
Leans Democratic (15)
Florida 24th, Arizona 1st, Illinois 11th, Ohio 16th, Alaska At-Large, Ohio 15th, New Mexico 1st, New Jersey 3rd, New York 29th, Michigan 9th, North Carolina 8th, Florida 8th, Colorado 4th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Connecticut 4th
Tilts Democratic/Tossup (11)
Nevada 3rd, New Mexico 2nd, Washington 8th, Minnesota 6th, Michigan 7th, Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Ohio 1st, Idaho 1st, Illinois 10th, California 4th
Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)
Louisiana 4th†, Florida 25th
Leans Republican (17)
Florida 21st, Alabama 2nd, Missouri 9th, Maryland 1st, New York 26th, Kentucky 2nd, Nebraska 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Virginia 5th, Nevada 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Wyoming At-Large, Arizona 3rd, Indiana 3rd, Texas 7th, West Virginia 2nd, Texas 10th
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (8)
South Carolina 1st, Pennsylvania 18th, California 50th, Florida 13th, New Jersey 5th, Iowa 4th, Missouri 6th, Pennsylvania 15t
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (11)
California 46th, California 3rd, North Carolina 5th, Pennsylvania 6th, Ohio 14th, Illinois 6th, Minnesota 2nd, Alabama 3rd, California 26th, Illinois 13th, Virginia 10th
Currently Safe (132)
Democratic Defenses (236)
Likely Republican (1)
Florida 16th
Leans Republican (1)
Texas 22nd
Tilts Republican/Tossup (1)
Pennsylvania 11th
Tilts Democratic/Tossup (1)
Alabama 5th
Leans Democratic (8)
Kansas 2nd, Louisiana 6th, New Hampshire 1st, Georgia 8th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 12th, Wisconsin 8th, Pennsylvania 10th
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)
Mississippi 1st, New York 20th, Arizona 5th, Arizona 8th, Texas 23rd, Illinois 14th
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (9)
Ohio 18th, New York 24th, Kansas 3rd, Kentucky 3rd, Pennsylvania 4th, Indiana 9th, Illinois 8th, Connecticut 5th, Minnesota 1st
Currently Safe (209)
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