Friday, September 26, 2008

Presidential Projection 9.26.08

Pre-Debate Edition

Obama/Biden 286 (51.6) McCain/Palin 252 (47.4)

With Tossups: Obama 269-200-69

Switches from September 23rd: +13 Obama

McCain to Obama: Virginia

Swing in Projected Popular Vote since September 23rd: +.6 Obama

Narrow Range: Draw 269-269 to Obama 338-200

Wide Range: McCain 278-260 to Obama 338-200

State by State Polling Only: Obama 286-252

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (14)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (139)

Massachusetts, Illinois, New York, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (37)

Maine, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey

Leans Obama (79)

Iowa, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado

Tilts Obama (17)

New Hampshire, Virginia

Tilts McCain (52)

Ohio, Nevada, Florida

Leans McCain (42)

Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia

Likely McCain (70)

Arkansas, Montana, Louisiana, Georgia, North Dakota, Texas

Solid McCain (35)

Arizona, Mississippi, South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky

Safe McCain (44)

Kansas, Tennessee, Alaska, Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming

Top Ten Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 7.0% (1)
2. New Mexico-Obama 5.4% (2)
3. Colorado-Obama 2.8% (3)
4. Virginia-Obama .4% (5)
5. Ohio-McCain .6% (6)
6. Nevada-McCain .7% (4)
7. New Hampshire-Obama 1.8% (7)
8. Florida-McCain 1.8% (8)
9. Missouri-McCain 4.0% (NR)
10. Pennsylvania-Obama 4.1% (10)

Dropping Out Since Tuesday: Wisconsin (9)

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

The Bottom Line/Daily Update


President
: Obama 273-265 (Obama +3.6)
Senate: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM)
House: 246-189 DEM (+10 DEM)

Changes from last major update (President 9/23/08, Congress 9/20/08)

President: None

Senate: None

House: +3 DEM

From GOP Gain to DEM Hold: Louisiana 6th
From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Ohio 16th, Nevada 3rd

The Presidential Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 6.6% (1)
2. New Mexico-Obama 4.7% (2)
3. Colorado-Obama 2% (3)
4. Nevada-McCain .9% (4)
5. Virginia-McCain 1.0% (5)
6. Ohio-McCain 1.1% (6)
7. New Hampshire-Obama 1.2% (7)
8. Florida-McCain 2.3% (8)
9. Pennsylvania-Obama 3.6% (10)
10. Michigan-Obama 3.8% (NR)

Dropped Out from Yesterday: Wisconsin (9)



Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Presidential Projection 9.23.08

Obama/Biden 273 (51.3) McCain/Palin 265 (47.7)

With Tossups: Obama 260-227-51

Switches from September 13th: +9 Obama

McCain to Obama: Colorado

Swing in Projected Popular Vote since September 13th: +5.2 Obama

Narrow Range: McCain 278-260 to Obama 311-227

Wide Range: McCain 309-229 to Obama 338-200

State by State Polling Only: Obama 286-252

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (26)

Washington D.C., Massachusetts, Vermont, Hawaii, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (62)

Illinois, Maryland, New York

Likely Obama (69)

California, Delaware, Connecticut, Maine

Leans Obama (103)

New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Tilts Obama (13)

New Hampshire, Colorado

Tilts McCain (38)

Nevada, Virginia, Ohio

Leans McCain (69)

Florida, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia

Likely McCain (41)

Montana, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota

Solid McCain (78)

Texas, Arizona, Mississippi, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska

Safe McCain (39)

Kansas, Nebraska, Alabama, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah

Top Ten Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 7.1% (1)
2. New Mexico-Obama 4.7% (2)
3. Colorado-Obama .9% (3)
4. Nevada-McCain .5% (5)
5. Virginia-McCain .7% (8)
6. Ohio-McCain 1.3% (4)
7. New Hampshire-Obama 1.9% (7)
8. Florida-McCain 2.4% (10)
9. Wisconsin-Obama 3.4% (NR)
10. Pennsylvania-Obama 3.6% (9)

Dropping Out: Michigan (6)

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Senate Ranking 9.21.08

Senate +5 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP if Obama wins, S.Q. or +1 GOP, contingent on Lieberman, if McCain wins for takeover)
Projected Senate: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM)
Narrow Range: 54-45-1 DEM (+4 DEM) to 57-42-1 DEM (+7 DEM)
Wide Range: 50-49-1 DEM (S.Q.) to 60-39-1 DEM (+10 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 54-42-1-3 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 55-44-1 (+5 DEM) to 56-43-1 (+6 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: GOP 2 DEM 1
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 3 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better) DEM 4 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse) DEM 10 GOP 1
Likelihood of Turnover: .2%

Switches from September 13th: None

Republican Defenses

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Virginia

Leans Democratic

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado

Tilts Democratic

Alaska

Tilts Republican

Oregon, Minnesota

Leans Republican

North Carolina, Mississippi (Special), Maine

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kentucky

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

New Jersey

Top 10 Senate Turnover Targets

1. Virginia (1)
2. New Mexico (2)
3. New Hampshire (3)
4. Colorado (4)
5. Alaska (5)
6. Oregon (7)
7. Minnesota (6)
8. Louisiana (8)
9. North Carolina (10)
10. Mississippi (Special) (9)

Saturday, September 20, 2008

House Rankings 9.20.08

House +7 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+7 DEM)
Narrow Range: 238-197 (+2 DEM) to 253-182 DEM (+17 DEM)
Wide Range: 218-217 GOP (+19 GOP) to 270-165 DEM (+34 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 238-182-15 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 245-190 DEM (+9 DEM) or 246-189 DEM (+10 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: GOP 10 DEM 5
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 11 DEM 4
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better) DEM 6 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse) DEM 34 GOP 20
Likelihood of Turnover: .1%

Switches from September 13th: Push

From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Alaska At-Large
From DEM Gain to GOP Hold: Minnesota 3rd

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM


There is not much to talk about in this week's House ranking. The Democrats are again projected to pick up a net of seven seats, leading to an expanded majority of fifty one. However, the addition of polling data into the formula has led to two seats flipping from last week. In all honesty moving the Alaska seat into the Democratic column is probably overdue, as Berkowitz has long held double digit polling leads over Young. But a combination of an unresolved primary, a potential Palin bump, and the simple fact that I've been burned before predicting Democratic victories in Alaska led to hesitation. As for the Minnesota seat, Paulsen's three point lead over Madia in a relatively recent Survey USA poll has changed the rating to Tilts Republican. However, that race will probably stay in either one of the tilt columns until Election Day. The only other news is that due to changes in pundit predictions two Republican seats (Pennsylvania 6th and West Virginia 2nd) have moved into the likely Republican column and, at least for the moment, out of play. Anyway here's the actual projection as well as the thirty seat most likely to change hands on Election Day.

And, yes I will have new Presidential numbers up sometime today.

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (1)

New York 13th

Leans Democratic (5)

New York 25th, Arizona 1st, Illinois 11th, Virginia 11th, New Jersey 3rd

Tilts Democratic (4)

Alaska At-Large, New Mexico 1st, New Jersey 7th, Ohio 15th

Tilts Republican (7)

Nevada 3rd, Ohio 16th, Connecticut 4th, Minnesota 3rd, Colorado 4th, Louisiana 4th, Washington 8th

Leans Republican (17)

Michigan 7th, New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Missouri 9th, New York 26th, Florida 21st, North Carolina 8th, Missouri 6th, New Mexico 2nd, Florida 24th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Michigan 9th, Illinois 10th, Virginia 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Alabama 2nd, Florida 13th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (7)

West Virginia 2nd, California 4th, Idaho 1st, Nevada 2nd, Florida 8th, Florida 25th, Pennsylvania 6th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (16)

Pennsylvania 15th, Wyoming At-Large, Maryland 1st, Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, New Jersey 5th, Minnesota 6th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Texas 10th, Texas 7th, Kentucky 2nd, Nebraska 2nd, Minnesota 2nd, Florida 15th, Virginia 10th

Currently Safe (142)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican (3)

Texas 22nd, Louisiana 6th, Alabama 5th

Tilts Democratic (1)

Kansas 2nd

Leans Democratic (16)

California 11th, New Hampshire 1st, Pennsylvania 10th, Georgia 8th, Wisconsin 8th, Pennsylvania 11th, Pennsylvania 4th, Mississippi 1st, Illinois 14th, Florida 16th, Arizona 8th, Kentucky 3rd, Oregon 5th, New York 20th, Indiana 9th, Arizona 5th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive  (6)

Minnesota 1st, Kansas 3rd, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Georgia 12th, Connecticut 5th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Ohio 18th, New York 24th, New Hampshire 2nd, Pennsylvania 8th, Indiana 8th, New York 19th

Currently Safe (204)

Top 30 Turnover Targets 

1. New York 13th (1)
2. New York 25th (2)
3. Arizona 1st (3)
4. Illinois 11th (4)
5. Virginia 11th (5)
6. New Jersey 3rd (6)
7. Texas 22nd (8)
8. New Jersey 7th (7)
9. New Mexico 1st (10)
10. Louisiana 6th (9)
11. Alabama 5th (11)
12. Alaska At-Large (22)
13. Ohio 15th (13)
14. Nevada 3rd (14)
15. Minnesota 3rd (12)
16. Ohio 16th (15)
17. Connecticut 4th (16)
18. Kansas 2nd (17)
19. Colorado 4th (23)
20. Washington 8th (18)
21. Louisiana 4th (24)
22. Michigan 7th (21)
23. Pennsylvania 10th (20)
24. North Carolina 8th (19)
25. New Hampshire 1st (27)
26. New York 29th (28)
27. Ohio 1st (29)
28. California 11th (NR)
29. Georgia 8th (30)
30. Wisconsin 8th (NR)

Dropping Out: Florida 16th (25), Illinois 10th (26)

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Senate Rankings 9.14.08

Senate +5 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory, S.Q or +1 GOP with McCain victory, contingent on Lieberman, needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM)
Narrow Range: +5 DEM (55-44-1 DEM) to +5 DEM (55-44-1 DEM)
Wide Range: S.Q. (50-49-1 DEM) to +10 DEM (60-39-1 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +5-6 DEM (Cook: +5-6 DEM, Sabato: +5-6 DEM, CQ: +5-6 DEM, Rothenberg: +5 DEM)
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better) DEM 5 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse) DEM 10 GOP 1
Likelihood of Turnover: .2%

Switches from September 3rd: None

As has been the case since the first projection (at least here on Isto) back in May, the race for control of the Senate remains stable. The Democrats have been favored to pickup four Republican held seats since that first prediction, with Alaska moving into the Democratic fold after the indictment of Ted Stevens on corruption charges back in July. And, that has been it. On more that one occasion, I could have copied and pasted the previous prediction and no one would have been the wiser. This week is one of those times.

In the clichéd big picture, the Democrats are all but certain to maintain and increase their majority in the Senate as the Republican game plan seems to be the equivalent of praying that the board draws a royal flush and having the highest kicker. Here is what needs to happen for the Republicans to retake the Senate, assuming that Mark Warner does not somehow blow a massive lead in the Virginia senate race.

1. Republicans have to hold Democratic Gains to Virginia
2. John McCain has to win the Presidential Election
3. Joe Lieberman has to either defect to the GOP or be appointed to the cabinet which in turn would allow Republican Connecticut Governor Jody Rell to choose a Republican successor
4. John Kennedy has to defeat Mary Landrieu in Louisiana to offset Virginia

All four occurring would bring the Republicans into a 50-50 tie with Palin casting the tie-breaking vote. Of course, since only #2 and #3 (my gut feeling is that one way or the other Lieberman won't be caucusing with the Democrats come next January) look even mildly feasible, this task is downright Herculean for Republicans. Especially when one considers that NRSC chairman John Ensign has pulled advertising funding in Virginia and New Mexico. The Democrats will keep their chairman gavels barring a bizarre sequence of events. The real question is whether or not they will takeover enough seats to occasionally force Mitch McConnell to shut up or if the next two years might become the Congress of the perpetual filibuster. My gut feeling is that they will only get about halfway there. Still a Senate in the 54-46 to 56-44 range would have the largest Democratic majority since 1993, a good sign for a party that has only held the Senate for eleven and a half of the last twenty-eight years.

Republican Defenses

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Virginia

Leans Democratic

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska

Leans Republican

Minnesota, Oregon, Mississippi (Special), North Carolina, Maine

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kentucky, Georgia

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

Top 10 Senate Turnover Targets (Lighter Colors denotes projected turnover)

1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Minnesota
7. Oregon
8. Louisiana
9. Mississippi (Special)
10. North Carolina


Saturday, September 13, 2008

House Rankings 9.13.08

House +7 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+7 DEM)
Narrow Range: 236-199 DEM (S.Q.) to 255-180 (+19 DEM)
Wide Range: 218-217 GOP (+19 GOP) to 272-163 (+36 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +9 DEM (Cook: +10-11 DEM, Sabato: +10 DEM, CQ: +8 DEM, Rothenberg: +6 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 236-180-19 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: +9 DEM (245-190 DEM) or +10 DEM (246-189 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: GOP 63.2 DEM 36.8
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 68.4 DEM 31.6
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 6 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 36 GOP 20
Likelihood of Turnover: .5%

Switches from September 3rd: +1 GOP

From DEM Gain to GOP Hold: Nevada 3rd

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM

Yes, I actually got the commentary done on time; I am as shocked as everyone else.

This week's House projection features no major changes as only one seat has changed hands since September 3rd. Mirroring the Silver State's status as the state most prone to flipping in presidential projections, the Nevada 3rd seat has returned to the GOP fold. However, I have moved this seat solely due to a recalibration of the generic Congressional Ballot and if I were the sort of person who had pure tossups, Jon Porter's seat would probably remain in that column until Election Day.

In the grand scheme of things, this election appears to be another reinforcement election such as those in 1934 and 1956 rather than the mild backlashes of 1978 and 1996. The Democrats have six very good pickup opportunities, including one seat (New York 13th), which is almost certain to have a Democratic congressman come January. In comparison, no Republican holds more than a tilt advantage in any Democratic seats. Even taking into consideration races that are merely in the lean category, the current political environment has tilted the playing field towards the Democrats; with thirty-six Republican seats in play compared to only twenty Democratic ones.

Still there are a couple of bright spots for Republicans. First, unlike in 2006, they do have legitimate pickup opportunities. Specifically in three southern seats which while leaning heavily Republican in Presidential elections have Democratic congressmen. A particularly satisfying takeover would be in the Louisiana 6th where Don Cazayoux, whose special election victory a few short months ago started much of the Republican soul gazing back in Spring, is currently a slight underdog. If Cazayoux loses, he would be the first special election victor not to win a consequent full term in recent memory. While still losing seats, Republican should dodge the ignominy of being shut out for two consecutive cycles.

The other bright spot is the cold comfort that the political climate could certainly be worse. Earlier in the year after losing three special elections in a row, a malaise permeated through the Republican caucus that they were bound to lose at least twenty seats if not thirty. Instead, the GOP appears likely to hold Democratic gains in the low double digits and perhaps, as I currently project, could keep them within single digits. Of course, there is not a whole lot of difference between losing 10-3 and 30-0 outside of moral victories. In this case by keeping Democrats from having a majority larger than any Republican one since 1930. Although, I suppose it is easier to dig oneself out of a twenty-six-seat hole than a forty seat one.

Still if I was a Republican, I would be praying night and day for a Republican veto pen in the White House, because it will take a long while (barring a complete Democratic brain fart which is not out of the question) for the GOP to whittle their way back into the majority. Actually gaining seats instead of continuing to lose them would be a good start.

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (1)

New York 13th

Leans Democratic (5)

New York 25th, Arizona 1st, Illinois 11th, Virginia 11th, New Jersey 3rd

Tilts Democratic (4)

New Jersey 7th, New Mexico 1st, Minnesota 3rd, Ohio 15th

Tilts Republican (9)

Nevada 3rd, Ohio 16th, Connecticut 4th, Washington 8th, North Carolina 8th, Michigan 7th, Alaska At-Large, Colorado 4th, Louisiana 4th

Leans Republican (17)

Illinois 10th, New York 29th, Ohio 1st, New York 26th, Michigan 9th, Missouri 6th, New Mexico 2nd, Florida 24th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Florida 21st, Alabama 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Missouri 9th, Ohio 2d, Florida 13th, West Virginia 2nd, Pennsylvania 6th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (6)

Pennsylvania 18th, California 4th, Idaho 1st, Nevada 2nd, Florida 8th, Florida 25th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (15)

Pennsylvania 15th, Wyoming At-Large, Illinois 6th, New Jersey 5th, Minnesota 6th, Virginia 10th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Illinois 18th, Texas 10th, Texas 7th, Maryland 1st, Minnesota 2nd, California 50th, Florida 15th

Currently Safe (142)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican (3)

Texas 22nd, Louisiana 6th, Alabama 5th

Tilts Democratic (3)

Kansas 2nd, Pennsylvania 10th, Florida 16th

Leans Democratic (14)

New Hampshire 1st, Georgia 8th, Wisconsin 8th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 4th, Mississippi 1st, Kentucky 3rd, Illinois 14th, Indiana 9th, Oregon 5th, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 11th, Arizona 8th, Arizona 5th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Minnesota 1st, Kansas 3rd, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Georgia 12th, Connecticut 5th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Ohio 18th, New York 24th, New Hampshire 2nd, Pennsylvania 8th, Indiana 8th, New York 19th

Currently Safe (204)

Top 30 House Turnover Targets (lighter colors indicates projected turnover)

1. New York 13th
2. New York 25th
3. Arizona 1st
4. Illinois 11th
5. Virginia 11th
6. New Jersey 3rd
7. New Jersey 7th
8. Texas 22nd
9. Louisiana 6th
10. New Mexico 1st
11. Alabama 5th
12. Minnesota 3rd
13. Ohio 15th
14. Nevada 3rd
15. Ohio 16th
16. Connecticut 4th
17. Kansas 2nd
18. Washington 8th
19. North Carolina 8th
20. Pennsylvania 10th
21. Michigan 7th
22. Alaska At-Large
23. Colorado 4th
24, Louisiana 4th
25. Florida 16th
26. Illinois 10th
27. New Hampshire 1st
28. New York 29th
29. Ohio 1st
30. Georgia 8th







Presidential Projection 9.13.08


I hope to have actual commentary up sometime this evening. Also, I've taken off comment moderation, so please feel free to state your views regarding this site. Thanks. 
Mike

McCain/Palin 274 (50.3) Obama/Biden 264 (48.7)

With Tossups: Obama 259-240-39

Switches from August 26th: +9 McCain

Obama to McCain: Colorado

Swing in Projected Popular Vote since August 26th: +3.2 McCain

Narrow Range: McCain 279-259 to Obama 298-240

Wide Range: McCain 331-207 to Obama 338-200

State by State Polling Only: Obama 273-265

Chance of Turnover: 50.0% (Pure Toss-Up)

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (3)

Washington D.C.

Solid Obama (71)

Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New York, Illinois

Likely Obama (83)

Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, California, Delaware, Hawaii

Leans Obama (102)

New Jersey, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan

Tilts Obama (5)

New Mexico

Tilts McCain (34)

Colorado, Ohio, Nevada

Leans McCain (56)

Virginia, Florida, Missouri, West Virginia

Likely McCain (108)

North Carolina, Indiana, Arizona, Montana, Texas, Georgia, South Carolina, South Dakota, Louisiana

Solid McCain (45)

Arkansas, North Dakota, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, Kansas, Nebraska

Safe McCain (31)

Alabama, Alaska, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 10 States Turnover List (Projected Turnovers in lighter colors)

1. Iowa- Obama 5.4%
2. New Mexico- Obama 1.8%
3. Colorado- McCain .4%
4. Ohio- McCain .8%
5. Nevada- McCain 1.6%
6. Michigan- Obama 2.6%
7. New Hampshire- Obama 2.8%
8. Virginia- McCain 3.0%
9. Pennsylvania- Obama 3.6%
10. Florida- McCain 4.0%

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

House Rankings 9.3.08

House +8 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM Vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 244-191 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: +1 DEM (237-198 DEM) to +20 DEM (256-179 DEM)
Wide Range: +19 GOP (218-217 GOP to +36 DEM (272-163 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +9 DEM (Cook: +10-11 DEM, Sabato +10 DEM, CQ: +8 DEM, Rothenberg: +6 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 237-179-19 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: +10 DEM (246-189 DEM) or +11 DEM (247-188 DEM)
Current Tossup Split: GOP 63.2% DEM 36.8%
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 6 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 36 GOP 20
Likelihood of Turnover: .5%

Switches from August 6th: +1 DEM

From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Nevada 3rd

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (1)

New York 13th

Leans Democratic (5)

New York 25th, Arizona 1st, Illinois 11th, Virginia 11th, New Jersey 3rd

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (5)

New Jersey 7th, New Mexico 1st, Minnesota 3rd, Ohio 15th, Nevada 3rd

Tilts Republican/Tossup (9)

Ohio 16th, Connecticut 4th, Washington 8th, North Carolina 8th, Michigan 7th, Alaska At-Large, Colorado 4th, Louisiana 4th, Illinois 10th

Leans Republican (16)

New York 26th, New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Michigan 9th, Missouri 6th, New Mexico 2nd, Florida 24th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Florida 21st, Alabama 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Missouri 9th, Ohio 2nd, Florida 13th, West Virginia 2nd, Pennsylvania 6th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (7)

Pennsylvania 18th, California 4th, Idaho 1st, Nevada 2nd, Florida 8th, Florida 25th, Pennsylvania 15th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (13)

Wyoming At-Large, Illinois 6th, New Jersey 5th, Minnesota 6th, Virginia 10th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Illinois 18th, Texas 10th, Texas 7th, Maryland 1st, Minnesota 2nd, California 50th

Currently Safe (143)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (3)

Texas 22nd, Louisiana 6th, Alabama 5th

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (2)

Kansas 2nd, Pennsylvania 10th

Leans Democratic (15)

Florida 16th, New Hampshire 1st, Georgia 8th, Wisconsin 8th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 4th, Mississippi 1st, Kentucky 3rd, Illinois 14th, Indiana 9th, Oregon 5th, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 11th, Arizona 8th, Arizona 5th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Minnesota 1st, Kansas 3rd, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Georgia 12th, Connecticut 5th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (5)

Ohio 18th, New York 24th, New Hampshire 2nd, Pennsylvania 8th, Indiana 8th

Currently Safe (205)


Senate Rankings 9.3.08

Senate +5 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory, +1 GOP with McCain victory and Lieberman caucusing with DEM, S.Q. with McCain victory and Lieberman caucusing with GOP, needed for takeover
Projected Senate: 55-44-1 DEM
Narrow Range: +5 DEM (55-44-1 DEM) to +5 DEM (55-44-1 DEM)
Wide Range: S.Q. (50-49-1 DEM) to +10 DEM (60-39-1 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +5-6 DEM (Cook: +5-6 DEM, Sabato: +5-6 DEM, CQ: +5-6 DEM, Rothenberg: +4 DEM)
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 5 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 10 GOP 1
Likelihood of Turnover: .2%
Likelihood of Democratic Filibuster Proof Majority: 3%

Switches from August 6th: None

Republican Defenses

Solid Democratic

Virginia

Leans Democratic

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska, Colorado

Leans Republican

Minnesota, Mississippi (Special), Oregon, Maine, North Carolina

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Texas, Kentucky

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic 

Louisiana