Presidential Projection 8/16/08

Obama 293 (51.7) McCain 245 (47.3)

With Tossups: Obama 264-200-74

Switches from August 3rd: +5 McCain

Obama to McCain: Nevada

McCain to Obama: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from August 3rd: +1 Obama

Narrow Range: Obama 338-200 to McCain 274-264

Wide Range: Obama 389-149 to McCain 355-183

Base Support: Obama 183-149

State by State Polling: Obama 296-242

Likelihood of Turnover: 60.5% (+.1%) (Tilts Obama)

Detailed State by State Prediction Data

Weekly Polling Data

Safe Obama (14)

Washington D.C., Vermont, Hawaii, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (136)

New York, Connecticut, California, Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland

Likely Obama (33)

Maine, Washington, New Jersey, Delaware

Leans Obama (81)

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Orego, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, New Hampshire

Tilts Obama/Toss-Up (29)

Ohio, Colorado

Tilts McCain/Toss-Up (45)

Nevada, Virginia, Florida

Leans McCain (51)

Montana, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia

Likely McCain (102)

Texas, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, Alaska, Mississippi, Arizona, Tennessee, Louisiana

Solid McCain (35)

Kentucky, Kansas, Alabama, Wyoming, Nebraska, Idaho

Safe McCain (12)

Oklahoma, Utah