House Rankings 8.6.08

House: +7 DEM

Current House: 236-199 DEM (+19 GOP needed for takeover)

Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+7 DEM)

Narrow Range: +2 GOP (234-201 DEM) to +20 DEM (256-179 DEM)

Wide Range: +19 GOP (218-217 GOP) to +36 DEM (272-161 DEM)

Pundit Spread: +7-8 DEM (Cook: +9-10 DEM, CQ: +7 DEM, Rothenberg: +6 DEM, Sabato: +7-8 DEM)

Likelihood of Turnover: 1%

Switches from July 23rd: +1 GOP

From DEM to GOP: Louisiana 6th

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (1)

New York 13th

Leans Democratic (3)

New York 25th, Illinois 11th, Virginia 11th

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (6)

Arizona 1st, New Mexico 1st, New Jersey 3rd, Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Ohio 15th 

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (10)

Ohio 16th, North Carolina 8th, Connecticut 4th, Washington 8th, New York 26th, Nevada 3rd, Alaska AL, Colorado 4th, Michigan 7th, Illinois 10th

Leans Republican (16)

New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Louisiana 4th, Pennsylvania 3rd, New Mexico 2nd, Florida 24th, Michigan 9th, Missouri 6th, Florida 21st, Virginia 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Florida 13th, West Virginia 2nd, Alabama 2nd, Missouri 9th, Pennsylvania 6th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (6)

Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, California 4th, Idaho 1st, Florida 8th, Pennsylvania 15th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (14)

Wyoming AL, Florida 15th, Minnesota 6th, Virginia 10th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Illinois 18th, Nevada 2nd, Texas 10th, Maryland 1st, Minnesota 2nd, Florida 25th, New Jersey 5th, California 50th

Currently Safe (143)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (3)

Texas 22nd, Alabama 5th, Louisiana 6th

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (3)

Kansas 2nd, Pennsylvania 10th, Florida 16th

Leans Democratic (14)

New Hampshire 1st, California 11th, Georgia 8th, Wisconsin 8th, Arizona 5th, Pennsylvania 4th, Mississippi 1st, Kentucky 3rd, Oregon 5th, Indiana 9th, Illinois 14th, New York 20th, Arizona 8th, Pennsylvania 11th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Minnesota 1st, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Georgia 12th, New York 19th, Connecticut 5th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Indiana 8th, Ohio 18th, Kansas 3rd, New Hampshire 2nd, Pennsylvania 8th, Indiana 2nd

Currently Safe (204)