Presidential Projection 8.25.08

Obama 273 (50.3) McCain 265 (48.7)

With Tossups: Obama 264-200-74

Switches from August 16th: +20 McCain

Obama to McCain: Ohio

Swing in Projected Popular Vote since August 16th: +2.8 McCain

Narrow Range: Obama 338-200 to McCain 274-264

Wide Range: Obama 384-154 to McCain 355-183

Base Support: Obama 183-154

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (14)

Washington D.C., Vermont, Hawaii, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (126)

New York, Connecticut, Illinois, California, Massachusetts

Likely Obama (43)

Maine, Maryland, Washington, New Jersey, Delaware

Leans Obama (81)

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire

Tilts Obama (9)

Colorado

Tilts McCain (65)

Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida

Leans McCain (46)

Montana, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, Indiana

Likely McCain (87)

West Virginia, Texas, Alaska, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, Arizona, Mississippi

Solid McCain (52)

Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama, Nebraska, Idaho, Tennessee, Kansas

Safe McCain (15)

Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming

Presidential Projection 8/16/08

Obama 293 (51.7) McCain 245 (47.3)

With Tossups: Obama 264-200-74

Switches from August 3rd: +5 McCain

Obama to McCain: Nevada

McCain to Obama: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from August 3rd: +1 Obama

Narrow Range: Obama 338-200 to McCain 274-264

Wide Range: Obama 389-149 to McCain 355-183

Base Support: Obama 183-149

State by State Polling: Obama 296-242

Likelihood of Turnover: 60.5% (+.1%) (Tilts Obama)

Detailed State by State Prediction Data

Weekly Polling Data

Safe Obama (14)

Washington D.C., Vermont, Hawaii, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (136)

New York, Connecticut, California, Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland

Likely Obama (33)

Maine, Washington, New Jersey, Delaware

Leans Obama (81)

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Orego, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, New Hampshire

Tilts Obama/Toss-Up (29)

Ohio, Colorado

Tilts McCain/Toss-Up (45)

Nevada, Virginia, Florida

Leans McCain (51)

Montana, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia

Likely McCain (102)

Texas, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, Alaska, Mississippi, Arizona, Tennessee, Louisiana

Solid McCain (35)

Kentucky, Kansas, Alabama, Wyoming, Nebraska, Idaho

Safe McCain (12)

Oklahoma, Utah

House Rankings 8.6.08

House: +7 DEM

Current House: 236-199 DEM (+19 GOP needed for takeover)

Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+7 DEM)

Narrow Range: +2 GOP (234-201 DEM) to +20 DEM (256-179 DEM)

Wide Range: +19 GOP (218-217 GOP) to +36 DEM (272-161 DEM)

Pundit Spread: +7-8 DEM (Cook: +9-10 DEM, CQ: +7 DEM, Rothenberg: +6 DEM, Sabato: +7-8 DEM)

Likelihood of Turnover: 1%

Switches from July 23rd: +1 GOP

From DEM to GOP: Louisiana 6th

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (1)

New York 13th

Leans Democratic (3)

New York 25th, Illinois 11th, Virginia 11th

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (6)

Arizona 1st, New Mexico 1st, New Jersey 3rd, Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Ohio 15th 

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (10)

Ohio 16th, North Carolina 8th, Connecticut 4th, Washington 8th, New York 26th, Nevada 3rd, Alaska AL, Colorado 4th, Michigan 7th, Illinois 10th

Leans Republican (16)

New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Louisiana 4th, Pennsylvania 3rd, New Mexico 2nd, Florida 24th, Michigan 9th, Missouri 6th, Florida 21st, Virginia 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Florida 13th, West Virginia 2nd, Alabama 2nd, Missouri 9th, Pennsylvania 6th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (6)

Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, California 4th, Idaho 1st, Florida 8th, Pennsylvania 15th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (14)

Wyoming AL, Florida 15th, Minnesota 6th, Virginia 10th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Illinois 18th, Nevada 2nd, Texas 10th, Maryland 1st, Minnesota 2nd, Florida 25th, New Jersey 5th, California 50th

Currently Safe (143)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (3)

Texas 22nd, Alabama 5th, Louisiana 6th

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (3)

Kansas 2nd, Pennsylvania 10th, Florida 16th

Leans Democratic (14)

New Hampshire 1st, California 11th, Georgia 8th, Wisconsin 8th, Arizona 5th, Pennsylvania 4th, Mississippi 1st, Kentucky 3rd, Oregon 5th, Indiana 9th, Illinois 14th, New York 20th, Arizona 8th, Pennsylvania 11th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Minnesota 1st, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Georgia 12th, New York 19th, Connecticut 5th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Indiana 8th, Ohio 18th, Kansas 3rd, New Hampshire 2nd, Pennsylvania 8th, Indiana 2nd

Currently Safe (204)

Senate Rankings 8/6/08

Senate: +5 DEM

Current Senate: 51-49 DEM (+1 GOP with McCain victory, +2 GOP with Obama victory needed for takeover)

Projected Senate: 56-44 DEM (+5 DEM)

Narrow Range: +5 DEM (56-44 DEM) to +5 DEM (56-44 DEM)

Wide Range: +1 DEM (52-48 DEM) to +9 DEM (60-40 DEM)

Pundit Spread: +5-6 DEM (Cook: +5-6 DEM, Sabato: +5-6 DEM, CQ: +5-6 DEM, Rothenberg: +4 DEM)

Likelihood of Turnover: Nil

Likelihood of Democratic Filibuster Proof Majority: 2%

Switches from July 23rd: +1 DEM

From GOP to DEM: Alaska

Republican Defenses

Likely Democratic

Virginia, New Mexico

Leans Democratic

New Hampshire, Alaska, Colorado

Leans Republican

Oregon, Minnesota, Mississippi (Special), Maine

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

North Carolina, Kentucky

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Texas

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

Presidential Projection 8.3.08

Capsule: I hope to have more detailed commentary and explanation of a couple new features up sometime tomorrow.

Obama 298 (51.2) McCain 240 (47.8)

With Tossups: Obama 264-200-74

Switches from July 23rd: +13 McCain

Obama to McCain: Virginia

McCain to Obama: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from July 23rd: +1.6 McCain

Narrow Range: Obama 338-200 to McCain 274-264

Wide Range: Obama 381-157 to McCain 355-183

Base Support: Obama 183-157

State by State Polling: Obama 309-229

Likelihood of Turnover: 60.4% (-6.0%) (Tilts Obama)

Detailed State by State Prediction Data

Weekly Polling Data