Presidential Preliminary Projection (5/11/08)

Obama 298
McCain 240

Changes from last week

McCain to Obama: Ohio, Nevada
Obama to McCain: None

Swing in raw popular vote from last week: Obama +3.1
Swing in projected popular vote from last week: Obama +3.4

Projections based upon the current margin in the projected popular vote (51.8-48.2 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling. Projection is intended as a possibility of the election's outcome if held today and not a final prediction.

State by State Projections (Colored Bold indicates turnover from 2004)

Safe Democratic (31)

D.C. Vermont, Illinois, Rhode Island

Solid Democratic (134)

Hawai'i, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut, California

Likely Democratic (35)

Maine, Washington, Delaware, Oregon, Minnesota

Leans Democratic (60)

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico

Tilts Democratic (38)

Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Republican (27)

Florida

Leans Republican (24)

Missouri, Virginia

Likely Republican (119)

South Carolina, North Carolina, Texas, Indiana, West Virginia, Louisiana, Arizona, Arkansas, Montana, Georgia, South Dakota

Solid Republican (51)

Mississippi, Tennessee, Alaska, North Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska, Alabama, Kentucky

Safe Republican (19)

Oklahoma, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah