A couple of last minutes polls in Indiana and North Carolina have moved the numbers just enough to justify another post. My final prediction heading into tonight is that Clinton will win Indiana by six and Obama will win North Carolina by eight, a split decision which will continue the death march to Denver and oblivion. However seeing as my predictions have absolutely stunk so far this primary season (mainly because I've never been able to work out a good formula unlike with the various legislative races) I wouldn't be surprised if either one of the candidates manages to finally land the knock out blow. Also some new head to head numbers between the Democrats and McCain finally put both Dems in the lead albeit narrowly, so I've included that data as well. I should have a new projection map for Obama v. McCain up next Sunday night (as is my plan until September) with one for Clinton v. McCain perhaps forthcoming if I ever become convinced that there is still a chance she could win the nomination (which is not currently the case).

Indiana Democratic Primary

Clinton 49(49.3) (43-51)
Obama 44 (44.0) (42-46)

Poll Leads: Clinton 4, Obama 1
Largest Leads: Clinton +12 (Survey USA), Obama +2 (Zogby)

Projected Popular Vote (With 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Clinton 53 (52.8)
Obama 47 (47.2)

Projected Delegate Allocation

Clinton 38
Obama 34

North Carolina Democratic Primary

Obama 50 (50.0) (47-53)
Clinton 42 (42.4) (37-45)

Poll Leads: Obama 7
Largest Lead: Obama +14 (Zogby)
Smallest Lead: Obama +4 (Insider Advantage)

Projected Popular Vote (With 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Obama 54 (54.1)
Clinton 46 (45.9)

Projected Delegate Allocation

Obama 62
Clinton 53

National Polling

Obama v. McCain

Obama 46 (46.4) (43-51)
McCain 45 (44.8) (40-48)

Poll Leads: Obama 3, McCain 3, Tied 1
Largest Leads: Obama +11 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (FOX)

Projected Popular Vote (With 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Obama 51 (50.9)
McCain 49 (49.1)

Clinton v. McCain

Clinton 47 (47.0) (45-53)
McCain 44 (43.6) (41-49)

Poll Leads: Clinton 6, McCain 1
Largest Leads: Clinton +12 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (USA Today/Gallup)

Projected Popular Vote (With 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Clinton 52 (51.8)
McCain 48 (48.2)