Louisiana Special Elections

Louisiana 6th 99% Reporting (DEM GAIN)

Cazayoux (D) 49,312 (49.2%)
Jenkins (R) 46,282 (46.2%)
Casey (I) 3,705 (3.7%)


Louisiana 1st 99% Reporting (GOP HOLD)

Scalise (R) 33,750 (75.2%)
Reed (D) 10,103 (22.5%)

10:50 PM: Well that was weird. The Louisiana SOS site didn't update at all for over thirty minutes and after finally doing so, showed that will 99% reporting Cazayoux has won the Louisiana 6th Special Election. While my 3% prediction ended up being more or less on the money, it was a rather odd night to be sure with a Jenkins lead throughout the night suddenly being overtaken at seemingly the last minute. Hell, I'm half-tempted not to call the race just in case it's a glitch. Cazayoux's win means that the new house breakdown is 234-199 DEM (with 1 DEM and 1 GOP open seats). I can't say that I'm not surprised that he pulled this race off, but I can't say that I'm not excited either. Now we'll see if Cazayoux can hold the seat in the general, as while I'll tentatively rate the 6th as Leans Democratic, I can see it moving one way or the other before election. Still, that's something the Democrats can worry about in a few months, right now it's time to celebrate a second special election victory with another opportunity looming ten days down the road.
10:19 PM: And as soon as I finished the last post, the latest update shows that Cazayoux has closed within 1500 votes. Also, formal declaration be dammed, I'm calling the Louisiana 1st for Scalise myself.
10:16 PM: Cazayoux appears to be rallying slightly but it might be a case of too little, too late, as the vast majority of outstanding votes are from Baton Rouge proper which is Jenkins hometown and was carried by President Bush in 2004. Scalise has obviously won in the 1st, I'm just waiting for a formal call to mark it red.
10:05 PM: Well, it's really starting to look like I (and Survey USA) were mistaken about the race in Louisiana 6th as while most of the reporting areas so far are from solidly GOP areas, the lead is starting to look a tad on the insurmountable side. Scalise has a massive, if unsurprisingly lead in the Louisiana 1st.
9:04 PM: The polls in Louisiana closed a few minutes ago. Numbers should start coming in shortly.
7:08 PM: While I'm not particularly convinced that anyone else even reads this blog, I figured I might as well live blog the results of today's two special House elections in Louisiana. While the 1st district is almost certain to remain in Republican hands barring a major upset, the 6th has proven surprisingly competitive and the Democrats stand a slightly better than even chance of winning a seat in deep red territory. Cazayoux is considered the slight favorite as seen in a Survey USA poll released earlier this week showing him with a nine point lead over Jenkins. While Cazayoux is out of the mainstream of the national Democratic Party, running as a social conservative with populist tendencies, even a Democrat who votes with his party only 35% of the time would be a major improvement over Jenkins. Who's probably best known for narrowly losing the 1996 Senate Race to Mary Landrieu and then spending the next six months claiming she cheated him out of his rightful position. Furthermore losing a second special election in a three month time span would damage Republican chance of retaking the house in November, as a Cazayoux victory would increase the margin needed for Speaker Boehner to eighteen seats. While special elections are almost always close regardless of the nature of the district (although there are obvious exceptions including tonight's other special election) a victory for the Democrats here combined with Foster's previous victory and the possibility of Travis Childers winning in an even more conservative district against a first tier candidate (unlike Jenkins or Oberweiss) would seem a bad sign for the GOP. Furthermore, tonight's special election provides a first glimpse into whether or not prohibitive Democratic front-runner Barack Obama will serve as a boost or an anchor for down ticket Democratic candidates in November. With both the NRCC and third party groups (foremost Freedom Watch) attacking Cazayoux for his ties to Obama while the Illinois Senator's Presidential Campaign has been raising funds for the Louisiana Democrat. Although Cazayoux has yet to state a preference in the Democratic Presidential Primary should he become a Superdelegate after tonight, and has made noise about voting against Pelosi for Speaker should he win in a full term. The district's conservative lean has made me wary of predicting a turnover in the past, but both my formula and my gut now believe that Cazayoux's mix of conservative and populist views are enough to overtake the perpetual candidate Jenkins and carry the seat for the Democrats.

Louisiana 1st

Incumbent: Vacant (Bobby Jindal-Elected Governor of Louisiana)
Candidates: St. Rep. Steve Scalise (R) vs. Glida Reed (D)
2006 Result: Jindal* (R) 88.1% Gereighty (D) 7.4%
District PVI: R+18
Polling: None Recent
Rating: Safe Republican
% Prediction: Scalise by 25+%

Louisiana 6th

Incumbent: Vacant (Richard Baker-Resigned)
Candidates: St. Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) vs. Woody Jenkins (R)
2006 Result: Baker* (R) 82.8% Fontanesi (L) 17.2%
District PVI: R+7
Polling: Cazayoux 50% Jenkins 41% (Survey USA 4/29/08)
Rating: Tilts Democratic
% Prediction: Cazayoux by 2-3%