Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Indiana/North Carolina Results/Exits

Indiana Democratic Primary 99% Reporting

Clinton 644,590 (50.6%)
Obama 630,395 (49.4%)

Indiana Exit Polls

Clinton 52%
Obama 48%

Indiana Projected Delegate Count

Clinton 37 (37)
Obama 35 (33)

North Carolina Democratic Primary 99% Reporting

Obama 874,641 (56%)
Clinton 651,696 (42%)

North Carolina Exit Polls

Obama 55%
Clinton 41%

North Carolina Projected Delegate Count

Obama 66 (62)
Clinton 49 (46)

11:47 PM: Lake county has finally started reporting. With 26% in the margin is 75-25 Obama, if that gap holds up Obama will easily overturn Hillary's lead.
10:07 PM: It's fairly obvious that Obama has won the night and Hillary's momentum has been stunted, the only real question is whether or not it's via knockout or simply a unanimous decision by the metaphorical judges. In addition, Lake County (home to Gary and considered a major Obama stronghold as well as one of two counties still outstanding) will not start reporting until 11 PM. The question is if Lake will be able to overwhelm both her lead of around 42,000. Regardless the old Obama seemed to have returned during his victory speech and if tonight does de facto resolve the nomination, Hillary can blame her wonderful pandering over the gas tax holiday, which seems to have revived him while pushing Rev. Wright onto the back burner. BTW, since when did Harold Ford Jr. become an Obama supporter, or did I just falsely assume he was a Hillary supporter?
9:15 PM: MSNBC has moved Indiana from too early to call to too close to call as Obama is within 50,000 votes (53-47) within the Chicago Suburbs yet to report a single vote. Although since Obama has just conceeded Indiana during his victory speech in Raleigh it's possible he's looking at different numbers than I am.
8:04 PM: Still no call regarding Indiana presumably because the Chicago suburbs still haven't reported, although overcoming a 14 point lead won't be particularly easy for Obama regardless.
7:33 PM: MSNBC has called the North Carolina Democratic Primary for Barack Obama, doing so as soon as the polls closed. The first good sign in a long time for the Obama campaign. CNN has also called the race for Obama.
7:04 PM: Exiting Polling from Indiana show a four point lead for Hillary, assuming the polls are overstating Obama's support yet again, it's probably closer to a ten point lead, big enough that she'll get to claim a major victory but probably no more than a 40-32 or 41-31 delegate split.
6:39 PM: And due to Indiana being split between two time zones we actually have early numbers from the Hooiser State before exit polling numbers. Right now the vote tally looks good for Hillary but it's still extremely early with no numbers from NW Indiana or Indianapolis yet.

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