Presidential Projection 10.21.08

2 weeks until election day

North Carolina turns Tarheel Blue. Florida moves to tossup. Georgia comes into play. McCain gains in popular vote for the sixth straight day (and fifth straight projection).

Obama/Biden 364 (53.1) McCain/Palin 174 (45.9)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 291-174-73

Tossup States: Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina
(73 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 20th: +.2 McCain

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 291-247 to Obama 364-174

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 364-174

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Maryland, Illinois, Delaware, California, Connecticut

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Georgia, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.1%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.6%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.0%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.5%
5. Nevada-Obama 3.3%
6. Florida-Obama 2.9%
7. Ohio-Obama 2.9%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.8%
9. North Carolina-Obama 1.0%
10. Indiana-McCain 3.2%
11. West Virginia-McCain 4.3%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.2%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.7%
14. Georgia-McCain 7.6%
15. Montana-McCain 7.7%