Presidential Projection 10.2.08

Pre VP Debate Update


Obama/Biden 338 (52.8) McCain/Palin 200 (46.2)

With Tossups: Obama 286-200-52

Switches from September 26th: +52 Obama

McCain to Obama: Florida, Ohio, Nevada

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from September 26th: +2.4 Obama

Narrow Range: Obama 286-252 to Obama 338-200

Medium Range: Draw 269-269 to Obama 349-189

Wide Range: McCain 341-197 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling Only: Obama 338-200

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (14)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (139)

Massachusetts, Illinois, New York, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (44)

Maine, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, Iowa

Leans Obama (96)

Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire

Tilts Obama (52)

Florida, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts McCain (0)

Leans McCain (42)

Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia

Likely McCain (80)

Arkansas, Montana, Georgia, Louisiana, North Dakota, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (42)

Mississippi, Tennessee, South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Kansas

Safe McCain (36)

Alaska, Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah

(New and Expanded) Top Fifteen Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 8.3%
2. New Mexico-Obama 6.1%
3. Colorado-Obama 2.8%
4. Virginia-Obama 2.4%
5. Florida-Obama 1.4%
6. Ohio-Obama 1.4%
7. Nevada-Obama .9%
8. New Hampshire-Obama 2.3%
9. Missouri-McCain 2.6%
10. North Carolina-McCain 4.5%
11. Indiana-McCain 4.8%
12. Wisconsin-Obama 5.4%
13. Minnesota-Obama 5.7%
14. Michigan-Obama 5.8%
15. Pennsylvania-Obama 6.2%