Presidential Projection 6/15/08

Obama 293 (51.9) McCain 245 (47.1)

Switches from last week: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from last week: Obama +.6

Narrow Range: 322-216 Obama to 269-269

Wide Range: 369-169 Obama to 338-200 McCain

Base Support: 200-169 Obama

State by State Polling Only: 272-266 Obama

Projection is based upon the current margin in the projected popular vote (51.9-47.1 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling

State by State Projections

Safe Democratic (31)

D.C., Vermont, Illinois, Rhode Island

Solid Democratic (57)

New York, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland

Likely Democratic (112)

California, Washington, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, Delaware, Oregon, Minnesota

Leans Democratic (69)

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Colorado

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (24)

Ohio, New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (29)

Missouri, Nevada, Virginia

Leans Republican (47)

Florida, North Carolina, West Virginia

Likely Republican (124)

Louisiana, Indiana, South Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, Montana, South Dakota, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arizona, North Dakota, Alaska

Solid Republican (35)

Kansas, Kentucky, Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma

Safe Republican (12)

Wyoming, Idaho, Utah