Presidential Projection 6/29/08

Obama 338 (53.7) McCain 200 (45.3)

Switches from last week: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from last week: Obama +2.0

Narrow Range: 349-189 Obama to 320-218 Obama

Wide Range: 455-83 Obama to 310-228 McCain

Base Support: 228-83 Obama

State by State Polling Only: 333-205 Obama

Projection is based upon the current margin in the projected popular vote (+8.4 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling.

State by State Projections

Safe Democratic (31)

D.C. Vermont, Illinois, Hawaii

Solid Democratic (127)

New York, California, Massachusetts, Maine, Maryland, Rhode Island, Washington

Likely Democratic (70)

Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

Leans Democratic (92)

Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Colorado, Florida

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (18)

Virginia, Nevada

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (11)

Missouri

Leans Republican (106)

North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota

Likely Republican (50)

Montana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Dakota, Arizona, Kansas, Tennessee, Kentucky

Solid Republican (28)

Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, Alabam

Safe Republican (5)

Utah

Presidential Projection 6/22/08

Obama 338 (52.7) McCain 200 (46.3)

Switches from last week: +45 Obama

McCain to Obama: Florida, Virginia, Nevada
Obama to McCain: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from last week: Obama +1.6

Narrow Range: 349-189 Obama to 293-245 Obama

Wide Range: 409-129 Obama to 313-225 McCain

Base Support: 225-129 Obama

State by State Polling Only: 316-222 Obama

Projection is based upon the current margin in the projected popular vote (52.7-46.3 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling.

Safe Democratic (62)

D.C., Vermont, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York

Solid Democratic (85)

Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, California

Likely Democratic (78)

Washington, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Oregon, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

Leans Democratic (68)

Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, New Mexico, Michigan, Colorado

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (45)

Florida, Virginia, Nevada

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (11)

Missouri

Leans Republican (60)

North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina

Likely Republican (96)

Louisiana, Texas, Montana, South Dakota, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arizona, North Dakota, Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky

Solid Republican (21)

Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma

Safe Republican (12)

Wyoming, Idaho, Utah

Presidential Projection 6/15/08

Obama 293 (51.9) McCain 245 (47.1)

Switches from last week: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from last week: Obama +.6

Narrow Range: 322-216 Obama to 269-269

Wide Range: 369-169 Obama to 338-200 McCain

Base Support: 200-169 Obama

State by State Polling Only: 272-266 Obama

Projection is based upon the current margin in the projected popular vote (51.9-47.1 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling

State by State Projections

Safe Democratic (31)

D.C., Vermont, Illinois, Rhode Island

Solid Democratic (57)

New York, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland

Likely Democratic (112)

California, Washington, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, Delaware, Oregon, Minnesota

Leans Democratic (69)

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, Colorado

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (24)

Ohio, New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (29)

Missouri, Nevada, Virginia

Leans Republican (47)

Florida, North Carolina, West Virginia

Likely Republican (124)

Louisiana, Indiana, South Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia, Texas, Montana, South Dakota, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arizona, North Dakota, Alaska

Solid Republican (35)

Kansas, Kentucky, Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma

Safe Republican (12)

Wyoming, Idaho, Utah

House Rankings 6/15/08

House (+8 DEM)

Current House:235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 244-191 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: +17 DEM (253-182 DEM) to +5 GOP (231-204 DEM)
Wide Range: +31 DEM (267-168 DEM) to +21 GOP (220-215 GOP)
Likelihood of Takeover: 2%

Current Vacancy:

Democratic

Maryland 4th-Al Wynn Resigned (6/17/08 Safe DEM)

Changes from last update (5/16/08): +1 DEM

GOP Hold to DEM Gain: New Jersey 7th
GOP Gain to DEM Hold: Mississippi 1st
DEM Hold to GOP Gain: Texas 22nd

Republican Defenses (199)

Leans Democratic (2)

Illinois 11th, Virginia 11th

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (8)

New York 25th, Arizona 1st, New Mexico 1st, New Jersey 3rd, Minnesota 3rd, Ohio 15th, New Jersey 7th, New York 13th

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (7)

Ohio 16th, North Carolina 8th, Washington 8th, New York 26th, Illinois 10th, Connecticut 4th, Alaska AL

Leans Republican (14)

New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Michigan 7th, Nevada 3rd, Louisiana 4th, Michigan 9th, Colorado 4th, Missouri 6th, Ohio 2nd, Florida 24th, Florida 13th, Alabama 2nd, New Mexico 2nd, Pennsylvania 6th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (6)

Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, California 4th, West Virginia 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Missouri 9th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (8)

Florida 8th, Minnesota 6th, Florida 21st, Illinois 18th, Maryland 1st, Pennsylvania 3rd, Pennsylvania 15th, Arizona 3rd

Currently Safe (154)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (2)

Alabama 5th, Texas 22nd

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (5)

Kansas 2nd, Mississippi 1st, Florida 16th, Pennsylvania 10th, Louisiana 6th

Leans Democratic (14)

Calfornia 11th, Georgia 8th, Oregon 5th, Indiana 9th, New Hampshire 1st, Arizona 5th, Wisconsin 8th, Pennsylvania 4th, New York 20th, Arizona 8th, Kentucky 3rd, Illinois 14th, Minnesota 1st, Illinois 8th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Ohio 18th, Pennsylvania 8th, Texas 23rd, Kansas 3rd, Georgia 12th, New York 19th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (4)

Connecticut 5th, Indiana 8th, New Hampshire 2nd, North Carolina 11th

Currently Safe (205)

Presidential Projection 6.9.08

Obama 293 (51.6) McCain 245 (47.4)

Switches from last week: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from last week: Obama +3.4

Narrow Range: 286-252 McCain to 320-218 Obama

Wide Range: 338-200 McCain to 369-169 Obama

Base Support: 200-169 Obama

State by State Polling Only: 272-266 Obama

Projection is based upon the current margin in the projected popular vote (51.6-47.4 Obama) combined with pundit prediction and state by state polling.

State by State Projection

Safe Democratic (31)

D.C., Vermont, Illinois, Rhode Island

Solid Democratic (112)

New York, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland, California

Likely Democratic (57)

Maine, Connecticut, New Jersey, Washington, Delaware, Oregon, Minnesota

Leans Democratic (52)

Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, New Mexico

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (41)

New Hampshire, Ohio, Michigan

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (27)

Missouri, Nevada, Virginia

Leans Republican (47)

Florida, North Carolina, West Virginia

Likely Republican (119)

Mississippi, Arkansas, South Carolina, Indiana, Louisiana, Texas, Georgia, Montana, Tennessee, South Dakota, Arizona, North Dakota

Solid Republican (26)

Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky, Alabama

Safe Republican (24)

Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, Utah

Governor Rankings 6.9.08

Governorships (+1 DEM)

Current Standing: 28-22 DEM (+4 GOP needed for majority of governorships, +3 GOP needed for 50-50 split)

Projected Standing: 29-21 DEM (+1 DEM)

Narrow Range: S.Q. (28-22 DEM) to +1 DEM (29-21 DEM)

Wide Range:+2 GOP (26-24 DEM) to +2 DEM (30-20 DEM)

Pundit Spread: S.Q. to +1 DEM (Cook S.Q to +1 DEM, Sabato S.Q., CQ S.Q. to +1 DEM, Rothenberg S.Q. to +1 DEM)

Likelihood of Turnover: <1%

Republican Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up

Missouri

Leans Republican

Indiana

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Washington, North Carolina

Senate Rankings 6.9.08

Senate (+4 DEM)

Current Senate: 51-49 DEM (+1 GOP with GOP Presidential Victory, +2 GOP with DEM Presidential Victory, needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 55-45 DEM (+4 DEM)
Narrow Range: +2 DEM (53-47 DEM) to +5 DEM (56-44 DEM)
Wide Range: S.Q. (51-49 DEM) to +9 DEM (60-40)
Pundit Spread: +4 DEM (Cook +4 DEM, Sabato +3 DEM, CQ +4 DEM, Rothenberg +3-4 DEM)
Likelihood of Turnover: 1%
Likelihood of Democratic Filibuster Proof Majority: 1%

Changes from last month: None

Republican Defenses

Likely Democratic

Virginia

Leans Democratic

New Mexico, New Hampshire

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up

Colorado

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up

Minnesota

Leans Republican

Oregon, Alaska, Maine, Mississippi (Special)

Likely Republican

North Carolina, Kentucky, Texas

Democratic Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up

Louisiana

The End?

Overall Delegate Count (2,117 needed to win)

Obama 2108
Clinton 1913

Obama Magic Number: 9

Delegate Numbers from Democratic Convention Watch

South Dakota Democratic Primary 0% Reporting

Obama
Clinton

Montana Democratic Primary 0% Reporting

Obama
Clinton

New Mexico Republican Senate Primary 0% Reporting

Rep. Steven Pearce
Rep. Heather Wilson

6:00 PM: Well it looks like this is the end, with the AP already calling the nomination for Obama while Hillary has openly stated that she wouldn't mind being Obama's Veep. Still I've been covering most of these all along so I'm back for one last live blog. This one will probably be heavier on the commentary and lighter on the number crunching than in the past, although I'm also following the New Mexico GOP Senate Primary which is expected to be extremely close. As an added bonus there's actually a halfway decent chance of drunk blogging late tonight which will probably amuse those used to my typically teetotaling tendencies. I probably won't be back until around 9 unless MSNBC gets weird enough for me to comment upon. And since Tweety referred to Hillary's desire to be VP as a dance of death that will probably be the case. No matter what this will be a historic night.
One last thing if for some reason you're reading this on facebook, you should probably visit my actual blog as it will update more frequently than the syndicated version.

Obama vs McCain 6/1/08

Obama 293 (49.9)
McCain 245 (49.1)

Switches from last week: None

Swing in projected popular vote from last week: McCain +1.6

Projection is based upon the current margin in the projected popular vote (49.9-49.1 Obama) combined with pundit prediction and state by state polling. Projection is intended as a possibility if the election was held today and not a final prediction.

Safe Democratic (27)

D.C., Vermont, Illinois

Solid Democratic (68)

Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut

Likely Democratic (88)

California, Maine, New Jersey, Delaware, Washington

Leans Democratic (60)

Oregon, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (50)

Michigan, New Hampshire, Colorado, Ohio

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (5)

Nevada

Leans Republican (51)

Florida, Virginia, Missouri

Likely Republican (123)

North Carolina, South Carolina, Arkansas, West Virginia, Louisiana, Indiana, Texas, Georgia, Montana, Tennessee, Mississippi

Solid Republican (33)

Arizona, South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky

Safe Republican (33)

Alabama, Wyoming, Nebraska, Idaho, Oklahoma, Utah


Base Support (Without Toss-Ups or Leaners)

McCain 189
Obama 183

State Polling Only

Obama 272
McCain 266

Bush to Obama: Colorado, Ohio, New Mexico, Iowa
Kerry to McCain: Michigan, New Hampshire

Pureto Rico Democratic Presidential Primary

Puerto Rico Democratic Presidential Primary-0% Reporting

Clinton
Obama

Projected Popular Vote Margin:

Puerto Rico Exit Polls

Clinton 70
Obama 30

Puerto Rico Estimated Delegate Count

Clinton 39
Obama 16

Overall Estimated Delegate Count with PR estimates (2,118 to win)

Obama 2,072
Clinton 1,915.5

3:00 P.M.-As soon as the polls close, MSNBC calls the Puerto Rico Democratic Primary for Hillary Clinton, not a particular surprise. Looking at exits.