Presidential Projection 1.16.12

43 weeks until Election Day (11.6.12)

Romney 275 (49.3) Obama 263 (49.7)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 247-235-56

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 303-235 to Romney 291-247

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 332-206 to Romney 317-221

State by State Projections

Safe Romney (+20%) (88)

Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, Alabama, Alaska, Nebraska, Kansas
Kentucky, Louisiana, North Dakota, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Dakota

Solid Romney (14-20%) (71)

West Virginia, South Carolina, Montana, Texas, Georgia

Likely Romney (8-14%) (11)

Indiana

Leans Romney (3-8%) (65)

Arizona, North Carolina, Missouri, Florida

Tilts Romney (0-3%) (40)

Virginia, Ohio, Colorado

Tilts Obama (0-3%) (16)

New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa

Leans Obama (3-8%) (61)

Michigan, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

Likely Obama (8-14%) (11)

Maine, Oregon

Solid Obama (14-20%) (99)

California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Washington, New Jersey

Safe Obama (+20%) (76)

D.C. Hawai’i, Vermont, Rhode Island, New York, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware

Top Turnover Targets

1. Indiana-Romney 9.1%
2. North Carolina-Romney 5.4%
3. Florida-Romney 3.6%
4. Virginia-Romney 2.4%
5. Ohio-Romney 1.1%
6. Colorado-Romney 1.0%
7. Iowa-Obama 1.6%
8. Nevada-Obama 2.2%
9. New Hampshire-Obama 2.4%
10. Pennsylvania-Obama 3.4%
11. Wisconsin-Obama 4.1%
12. Missouri-Romney 5.0%
13. Minnesota-Obama 5.5%
14. New Mexico-Obama 5.7%
15. Michigan-Obama 6.2%