Senate +8 GOP
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM
Projected Senate: 51-49 DEM (+8 GOP)
Range: +4 GOP (55-45 DEM) to +10 GOP (51-49 GOP)
Over/Under: +7 GOP
Democratic Defenses
Safe Republican
North Dakota
Solid Republican
Arkansas, Indiana
Leans Republican
Wisconsin
Tilts Republican/Toss-Up
Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois
Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up
West Virginia, Washington
Leans Democratic
California, Connecticut
Likely Democratic
Delaware
Republican Defenses
Leans Republican
Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire
Likely Republican
Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio
Monday, November 1, 2010
Final House Projection
House +60 GOP
Current House: 256-179 DEM
Projected House: 239-196 GOP (+60 GOP)
Range: 223-212 DEM (+33 GOP) to 251-184 GOP (+72 GOP)
Over/Under:+52.5 GOP
Democratic Defenses
Solid Republican (3)
Tennessee 6th, Louisiana 3rd, New York 29th
Likely Republican (4)
Indiana 8th, Arkansas 2nd, Tennessee 8th, Kansas 3rd
Leans Republican (30)
Texas 17th, Colorado 4th, Florida 24th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Florida 8th, Illinois 11th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, Florida 2nd, New Hampshire 1st, Georiga 8th, Maryland 1st, Michigan 1st, Arkansas 1st, Arizona 1st, Washington 3rd, Virginia 2nd, South Carolina 5th, West Virginia 1st, Wisconsin 8th, Tennessee 4th, New Mexico 2nd, Mississippi 1st, Indiana 9th, South Dakota AL, Virginia 5th, Nevada 3rd, North Dakota AL, Ohio 16th, Ohio 18th
Tilts Republican/Tossup (26)
Arizona 5th, Colorado 3rd, Mississippi 4th, Pennsylvania 10th, Alabama 2nd, New York 19th, Pennsylvania 7th, Wisconsin 7th, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 11th, Illinois 14th, New York 23rd, Texas 23rd, Idaho 1st, Michigan 7th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 8th, Illinois 17th, New Hampshire 2nd, Missouri 4th, Florida 22nd, Georgia 2nd, Arizona 8th, New Jersey 3rd, New York 24th, North Carolina 8th
Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)
Ohio 6th, Virginia 9th, Massachusetts 10th, Oregon 5th, Kentucky 6th, New Mexico 1st, Virginia 11th, Washington 2nd, Indiana 2nd, California 20th, Pennsylvania 12th, Arizona 7th
Leans Democratic (23)
New York 1st, North Carolina 7th, Iowa 3rd, Minnesota 1st, Connecticut 5th, Michigan 9th, Maine 1st, California 47th, Connecticut 4th, New York 13th, Colorado 7th, Iowa 1st, North Carolina 11th, Wisconsin 3rd, Iowa 2nd, Norh Carolina 2nd, Pennsylvania 4th, Minnesota 8th, Rhode Island 1st, Kentucky 3rd, New York 25th, Ohio 13th, Pennsylvania 17th
Likely Democratic (6)
Missouri 3rd, New York 22nd, Texas 27th, Maine 2nd, West Virginia 3rd, Massachusetts 4th
Republican Defenses
Leans Democratic (3)
Louisiana 2nd, Delaware AL, Illinois 10th
Tilts Republican/Tossup (1)
Hawai’i 1st
Leans Republican (5)
Florida 25th, Florida 12th, California 3rd, Washington 8th, Pennsylvania 15th
Current House: 256-179 DEM
Projected House: 239-196 GOP (+60 GOP)
Range: 223-212 DEM (+33 GOP) to 251-184 GOP (+72 GOP)
Over/Under:+52.5 GOP
Democratic Defenses
Solid Republican (3)
Tennessee 6th, Louisiana 3rd, New York 29th
Likely Republican (4)
Indiana 8th, Arkansas 2nd, Tennessee 8th, Kansas 3rd
Leans Republican (30)
Texas 17th, Colorado 4th, Florida 24th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Florida 8th, Illinois 11th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, Florida 2nd, New Hampshire 1st, Georiga 8th, Maryland 1st, Michigan 1st, Arkansas 1st, Arizona 1st, Washington 3rd, Virginia 2nd, South Carolina 5th, West Virginia 1st, Wisconsin 8th, Tennessee 4th, New Mexico 2nd, Mississippi 1st, Indiana 9th, South Dakota AL, Virginia 5th, Nevada 3rd, North Dakota AL, Ohio 16th, Ohio 18th
Tilts Republican/Tossup (26)
Arizona 5th, Colorado 3rd, Mississippi 4th, Pennsylvania 10th, Alabama 2nd, New York 19th, Pennsylvania 7th, Wisconsin 7th, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 11th, Illinois 14th, New York 23rd, Texas 23rd, Idaho 1st, Michigan 7th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 8th, Illinois 17th, New Hampshire 2nd, Missouri 4th, Florida 22nd, Georgia 2nd, Arizona 8th, New Jersey 3rd, New York 24th, North Carolina 8th
Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)
Ohio 6th, Virginia 9th, Massachusetts 10th, Oregon 5th, Kentucky 6th, New Mexico 1st, Virginia 11th, Washington 2nd, Indiana 2nd, California 20th, Pennsylvania 12th, Arizona 7th
Leans Democratic (23)
New York 1st, North Carolina 7th, Iowa 3rd, Minnesota 1st, Connecticut 5th, Michigan 9th, Maine 1st, California 47th, Connecticut 4th, New York 13th, Colorado 7th, Iowa 1st, North Carolina 11th, Wisconsin 3rd, Iowa 2nd, Norh Carolina 2nd, Pennsylvania 4th, Minnesota 8th, Rhode Island 1st, Kentucky 3rd, New York 25th, Ohio 13th, Pennsylvania 17th
Likely Democratic (6)
Missouri 3rd, New York 22nd, Texas 27th, Maine 2nd, West Virginia 3rd, Massachusetts 4th
Republican Defenses
Leans Democratic (3)
Louisiana 2nd, Delaware AL, Illinois 10th
Tilts Republican/Tossup (1)
Hawai’i 1st
Leans Republican (5)
Florida 25th, Florida 12th, California 3rd, Washington 8th, Pennsylvania 15th
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Senate Rankings 9.23.10
Senate: +6 GOP
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 53-47 DEM (+6 GOP)
Over/Under: +7 GOP
Potential Range: +3 GOP (56-44 DEM) to +11 GOP (52-48 GOP)
Changes from Last Week: +1 GOP
From DEM HOLD to GOP GAIN: Wisconsin
Democratic Defenses
Safe Republican
North Dakota
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Arkansas, Indiana
Leans Republican
Pennsylvania
Tilts Republican/Toss-Up
Colorado, Wisconsin
Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up
Nevada, Illinois, Washington, California
Leans Democratic
West Virginia (Special), Connecticut
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Delaware (Special)
Republican Defenses
Tilts Republican/Toss-Up
Florida
Leans Republican
New Hampshire, Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
North Carolina, Louisiana
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Senate Rankings 9.16.10
Senate: +5 GOP
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 54-46 DEM (+5 GOP)
Over/Under: +7.5 GOP
Potential Range: +4 GOP (55-45 DEM) to +11 GOP (52-48 GOP)
Democratic Defenses
Safe Republican
North Dakota
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Arkansas, Indiana
Leans Republican
Pennsylvania
Tilts Republican/Toss-Up
Colorado
Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up
Illinois, Nevada, Wisconsin, Washington, California
Leans Democratic
Connecticut, West Virginia (Special)
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Delaware (Special)
Republican Defenses
Tilts Republican/Toss-Up
Florida
Leans Republican
New Hampshire, Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
North Carolina, Louisiana
Turnover Rankings
1. North Dakota (GOP GAIN)
2. Arkansas (GOP GAIN)
3. Indiana (GOP GAIN)
4. Pennsylvania (GOP GAIN)
5. Colorado (GOP GAIN)
6. Illinois
7. Florida
8. Nevada
9. Wisconsin
10. Washington
11. California
12. New Hampshire
13. Missouri
14. Kentucky
15. Ohio
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
British Election Final Projections (5.6.10)
326 needed for a majority
Conservatives 290 (+82)
Labour 240 (-106)
Liberal Democrats 88 (+21)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 36 seats short
Potential Coalitions
Con/Lib 378 (Majority of 106)
Lab/Lib 328 (Majority of 6)
Popular Vote Polling Averages
Conservatives 35.7%
Labour 27.7%
Liberal Democrats 27.5%
Conservatives 290 (+82)
Labour 240 (-106)
Liberal Democrats 88 (+21)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 36 seats short
Potential Coalitions
Con/Lib 378 (Majority of 106)
Lab/Lib 328 (Majority of 6)
Popular Vote Polling Averages
Conservatives 35.7%
Labour 27.7%
Liberal Democrats 27.5%
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
British Election Projections 5.5.10
326 needed for a majority
Conservatives 280 (+72)
Labour 249 (-97)
Liberal Democrats 89 (+22)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 46 seats short
Potential Coalitions
Con/Lib 369 (Majority of 88)
Lab/Lib 338 (Majority of 26)
Popular Vote Polling Averages
Conservatives 34.7%
Labour 27.9%
Liberal Democrats 27.6%
Conservatives 280 (+72)
Labour 249 (-97)
Liberal Democrats 89 (+22)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 46 seats short
Potential Coalitions
Con/Lib 369 (Majority of 88)
Lab/Lib 338 (Majority of 26)
Popular Vote Polling Averages
Conservatives 34.7%
Labour 27.9%
Liberal Democrats 27.6%
Monday, May 3, 2010
British Election Projections 5.4.10
326 needed for a majority
Conservatives 277 (+69)
Labour 249 (-97)
Liberal Democrats 92 (+25)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 49 seats short of a majority
Potential Coalitions
Con/Lib 369 (Majority of 88)
Lab/Lib 341 (Majority of 32)
Popular Vote Averages
Conservatives 34.3%
Liberal Democrats 28.2%
Labour 27.6%
Conservatives 277 (+69)
Labour 249 (-97)
Liberal Democrats 92 (+25)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 49 seats short of a majority
Potential Coalitions
Con/Lib 369 (Majority of 88)
Lab/Lib 341 (Majority of 32)
Popular Vote Averages
Conservatives 34.3%
Liberal Democrats 28.2%
Labour 27.6%
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
British Election Projections 4.29.10
326 needed for a majority
Conservatives 274 (+66)
Labour 249 (-97)
Liberal Democrats 95 (+28)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 52 seats short
Potential Coalitions
Con/Lib 369 (Majority of 88)
Lab/Lib 344 (Majority of 38)
Popular Vote Polling Averages
Conservatives 34.1%
Liberal Democrats 29.1%
Labour 27.7%
Conservatives 274 (+66)
Labour 249 (-97)
Liberal Democrats 95 (+28)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 52 seats short
Potential Coalitions
Con/Lib 369 (Majority of 88)
Lab/Lib 344 (Majority of 38)
Popular Vote Polling Averages
Conservatives 34.1%
Liberal Democrats 29.1%
Labour 27.7%
British Election Projections 4.28.10
326 needed for a majority
Conservatives 272 (+64)
Labour 250 (-96)
Liberal Democrats 96 (+29)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 54 seats short
Potential Coalitions
Con/Lib 368 (Majority of 86)
Lab/Lib 346 (Majority of 42)
Polling Averages
Conservatives 33.9%
Liberal Democrats 28.9%
Labour 27.8%
Conservatives 272 (+64)
Labour 250 (-96)
Liberal Democrats 96 (+29)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 54 seats short
Potential Coalitions
Con/Lib 368 (Majority of 86)
Lab/Lib 346 (Majority of 42)
Polling Averages
Conservatives 33.9%
Liberal Democrats 28.9%
Labour 27.8%
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
British Election Projection 4.22.10
326 needed for a majority
Conservatives 254 (+46)
Labour 250 (-96)
Liberal Democrats 114 (+47)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 72 seats short of a majority (Potential Con/Lib Coalition, Potential Lab/Lib Coalition)
Popular Vote Averages
Conservatives 32.2%
Liberal Democrats 30.5%
Labour 26.7%
Conservatives 254 (+46)
Labour 250 (-96)
Liberal Democrats 114 (+47)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 72 seats short of a majority (Potential Con/Lib Coalition, Potential Lab/Lib Coalition)
Popular Vote Averages
Conservatives 32.2%
Liberal Democrats 30.5%
Labour 26.7%
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
British Election Projections 4.21.10
326 needed for a majority
Conservatives 254 (+46)
Labour 253 (-93)
Liberal Democrats 111 (+44)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 72 short of a Majority (Potential Con/Lib Coalition, Potential Lab/Lib Coalition)
Nationwide Polling Averages
Conservatives 32.4%
Liberal Democrats 30.1%
Labour 27.3%
Conservatives 254 (+46)
Labour 253 (-93)
Liberal Democrats 111 (+44)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 72 short of a Majority (Potential Con/Lib Coalition, Potential Lab/Lib Coalition)
Nationwide Polling Averages
Conservatives 32.4%
Liberal Democrats 30.1%
Labour 27.3%
British Election Projections 4.20.10
326 needed for a majority
Labour 265 (-81)
Conservatives 251 (+43)
Liberal Democrats 102 (+35)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Labour minority of 14. (Potential Lab/Lib Coalition, Potential Con/Lib Coalition).
Labour 265 (-81)
Conservatives 251 (+43)
Liberal Democrats 102 (+35)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)
Result: Hung Parliament, Labour minority of 14. (Potential Lab/Lib Coalition, Potential Con/Lib Coalition).
Saturday, April 17, 2010
British Election Projections 4.17.10
326 needed for a majority
Conservatives 288 (+80)
Labour 265 (-81)
Liberal Democrats 66 (-1)
Nationalists/Others 31 (+2)
Result: Hung Parliament/Conservative Minority of 23 (Potential Con/Lib Coalition, Potential Lab/Lib Coalition)
Post Debate Polls Only
Labour 271 (-75)
Conservatives 246 (+38)
Liberal Democrats 101 (+34)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+1)
Result:Hung Parliament/Labour Minority of 25 (Potential Lab/Lib Coalition, Potential Con/Lib Coalition)
Conservatives 288 (+80)
Labour 265 (-81)
Liberal Democrats 66 (-1)
Nationalists/Others 31 (+2)
Result: Hung Parliament/Conservative Minority of 23 (Potential Con/Lib Coalition, Potential Lab/Lib Coalition)
Post Debate Polls Only
Labour 271 (-75)
Conservatives 246 (+38)
Liberal Democrats 101 (+34)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+1)
Result:Hung Parliament/Labour Minority of 25 (Potential Lab/Lib Coalition, Potential Con/Lib Coalition)
Thursday, April 15, 2010
British Election Projections 4.15.10
(326 needed for a majority government)
Conservatives 296 (+88)
Labour 268 (-78)
Liberal Democrats 53 (-14)
Nationalists/Other 33 (+4)
Result: Conservative Minority Government of 28 (Potential Con/Lib Coalition)
Conservatives 296 (+88)
Labour 268 (-78)
Liberal Democrats 53 (-14)
Nationalists/Other 33 (+4)
Result: Conservative Minority Government of 28 (Potential Con/Lib Coalition)
Thursday, April 8, 2010
British Election Projections 4.7.10
326 seats needed for a majority
Conservatives 314 (+106)
Labour 254 (-92)
Liberal Democrats 49 (-18)
Nationalists/Others 33 (+4)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservative Minority Government of 60 (Potential Con/Lib Coalition Government)
Really more of a late night test run than anything, but wanted to get the first one of these out of the way as I'm going to start putting out regular predictions for the British General Election on May 6th, in an attempt to fill the political downtime gap while waiting for the American midterm elections start to move into full gear.
Conservatives 314 (+106)
Labour 254 (-92)
Liberal Democrats 49 (-18)
Nationalists/Others 33 (+4)
Result: Hung Parliament, Conservative Minority Government of 60 (Potential Con/Lib Coalition Government)
Really more of a late night test run than anything, but wanted to get the first one of these out of the way as I'm going to start putting out regular predictions for the British General Election on May 6th, in an attempt to fill the political downtime gap while waiting for the American midterm elections start to move into full gear.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Senate Rankings 3.10.10
Senate: +6 GOP
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 53-47 DEM (+6 GOP)
Over/Under: +4.5 GOP
Pundit Over/Under: +4 GOP (Cook: +3.5 GOP, CQ: +4 GOP, Roll Call: +4 GOP, Sabato: +4.5 GOP)
Narrow Range: 51-49 DEM (+8 GOP) to 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP)
Wide Range: 51-49 DEM (+8 GOP) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
GOP Best Case: A gain of seven to nine seats
DEM Best Case: A loss of two seats to a status quo election
Changes Since Last Update: Status Quo (+1 DEM, +1 GOP)
From DEM Hold to GOP Gain: Indiana
From GOP Gain to DEM Hold: Pennsylvania
Democratic Defenses
Safe Republican
North Dakota
Leans Republican
Arkansas, Delaware (Special), Indiana
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Nevada, Colorado
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
Pennsylvania, Illinois
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive
California, Connecticut
Republican Defenses
Tilts Republican/Tossup
New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri
Leans Republican
Kentucky, North Carolina
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Florida, Louisiana
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
House Rankings 2.3.10
House: +14 GOP
Current House: 256-178 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+40 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+14 GOP)
Narrow Range: 230-205 DEM (+27 GOP) to 256-179 DEM (+1 GOP)
Wide Range: 228-207 GOP (+50 GOP) to 264-171 DEM (+7 DEM)
Spread: +14 GOP
GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of twenty four to thirty seats
DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of two seats to a Republican gain of four seats
Democratic Defenses
Leans Republican (4)
Tennessee 6th, Louisiana 3rd, Arkansas 2nd, Arkansas 1st
Tilts Republican/Tossup (13)
Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd, Maryland 1st, Tennessee 8th, Kansas 3rd, New Mexico 2nd, Virginia 5th, Mississippi 1st, Florida 8th, Colorado 4th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, Washington 3rd
Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)
Pennsylvania 7th, Michigan 7th, New Hampshire 1st, Virginia 2nd, New Hampshire 2nd, Florida 24th, Nevada 3rd, Illinois 14th, New York 29th, New York 19th, New York 24th, New York 23rd
Leans Democratic (23)
Indiana 9th, Missouri 4th, Ohio 18th, South Carolina 5th, Arizona 5th, North Carolina 8th, Wisconsin 8th, New Jersey 3rd, Hawai'i 1st, New York 1st, Texas 17th, North Dakota At-Large, Pennsylvania 10th, Arizona 8th, New York 13th, Ohio 16th, New York 20th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 11th, Georgia 8th, South Dakota At-Large, Pennsylvania 17th, Pennsylvania 4th
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (7)
Iowa 3rd, California 47th, West Virginia 1st, Virginia 9th, Colorado 3rd, Pennsylvania 8th, Tennessee 4th
Republican Defenses
Leans Democratic (2)
Leans Democratic (2)
Louisiana 2nd, Delaware At-Large
Tilts Democratic/Tossup (1)
Illinois 10th
Leans Republican (8)
Pennsylvania 6th, Washington 8th, California 3rd, Pennsylvania 15th, Nebraska 2nd, Minnesota 6th, Ohio 12th, California 44th
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (3)
Minnesota 3rd, California 45th, Ohio 2nd
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Senate Rankings 2.2.10
Senate: +6 GOP
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 53-47 DEM (+6 GOP)
Over/Under: +4 GOP
Narrow Range: 52-48 DEM (+7 GOP) to 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP)
Wide Range: 52-48 DEM (+7 GOP) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
GOP Best Case: A gain of six to eight seats
DEM Best Case: A loss of two seats to a status quo election
Democratic Defenses
Safe Republican
North Dakota
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Delaware
Leans Republican
Arkansas, Nevada
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Colorado, Pennsylvania
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
Illinois
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive
California, Connecticut
Republican Defenses
Tilts Republican/Tossup
New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri
Leans Republican
Kentucky, North Carolina
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Florida, Louisiana
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 53-47 DEM (+6 GOP)
Over/Under: +4 GOP
Narrow Range: 52-48 DEM (+7 GOP) to 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP)
Wide Range: 52-48 DEM (+7 GOP) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
GOP Best Case: A gain of six to eight seats
DEM Best Case: A loss of two seats to a status quo election
Democratic Defenses
Safe Republican
North Dakota
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Delaware
Leans Republican
Arkansas, Nevada
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Colorado, Pennsylvania
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
Illinois
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive
California, Connecticut
Republican Defenses
Tilts Republican/Tossup
New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri
Leans Republican
Kentucky, North Carolina
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Florida, Louisiana
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