Senate Rankings 2.5.09

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
Wide Range: 56-44 DEM (+3 GOP) to 66-34 DEM (+7 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-37-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 1
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 7 GOP 3
2006/2008 Final Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 55%

* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated

Retirements/Open Seats

Democratic

Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not Running for Full Term)

Republican

Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
New Hampshire-Sen. Bonnie Newman (Appointed/Not running for new term)**
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)

** Assumes that Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) is confirmed as Secretary of Commerce

Republican Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Florida, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Louisiana

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kansas

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

North Carolina, Iowa

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Illinois

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Pennsylvania
7. Colorado
8. Louisiana
9. Nevada
10. North Dakota