Senate Rankings 2/26/09

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority)
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
Wide Range: 57-43 DEM (+2 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+8 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-37-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM (+2 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 1
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 8 GOP 2
2006/2008 Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 55%

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of seven to nine seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of one to three seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of two to four seats

* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated

Retirements/Open Seats

Democratic

Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not running for full term)

Republican

Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
New Hampshire-Sen. Judd Gregg ("Probably" Retiring)
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)

Republican Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Florida, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Louisiana

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kansas

Democratic Senate Defenses

Leans Democratic

Colorado, Nevada

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Illinois

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin, North Dakota

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Colorado
7. Pennsylvania
8. North Carolina
9. Louisiana
10. Nevada

House Rankings 2/26/09

House: +2 GOP

Current House: 254-178 DEM with 3 DEM vacancies (+40 GOP needed for turnover)
Projected House: 255-180 DEM (+2 GOP)
Narrow Range: 253-182 DEM (+4 GOP) to 257-178 DEM (S.Q.)
Wide Range: 236-199 DEM (+21 GOP) to 263-172 DEM (+6 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 253-178-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 255-180 DEM (+2 GOP)
Current Tossup Leads: DEM 2 GOP 2
Current Tossup Defenses: DEM 4 GOP 0
Strong Turnover Chances: GOP 1 DEM 1
Legitimate Targets: GOP 22 DEM 6
2006/2008 Final Prediction: 840/870 (96.6%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 1%

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of roughly four to eight seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of roughly nineteen to twenty three seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Republican gain of roughly five to ten seats

House Vacancies

Democratic (3)

California 32nd-Rep. Hilda Solis (Secretary of Labor) SAFE DEM
Illinois 5th-Rep.Rahm Emanuel (White House Chief of Staff) SAFE DEM
New York 20th-Rep. Kristen Gillibrand (United States Senate) LEANS GOP

Republican (0)

Potential New Seats

District of Columbia At-Large SAFE DEM
Utah 4th SOLID GOP

Republican Defenses

Likely Democratic (1)

Louisiana 2nd

Leans Republican (5)

Washington 8th, Pennsylvania 15th, Pennsylvania 6th, California 44th, Alaska At-Large

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (5)

Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Minnesota 6th, California 3rd, South Carolina 1st

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (11)

Michigan 11th, California 50th, Illinois 10th, Iowa 4th, Florida 16th, California 45th, New York 26th, Alabama 3rd, California 26th, Florida 13th, Florida 25th

Currently Safe (156)

Democratic Defenses

Leans Republican (1)

New York 20th (Special)

Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)

Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (2)

Maryland 1st, Mississippi 1st

Leans Democratic (17)

New Hampshire 2nd, Colorado 4th, Virginia 5th, Florida 8th, North Carolina 8th, Michigan 7th, Texas 17th, Georgia 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, Alabama 5th, New Mexico 2nd, Virginia 2nd, New York 29th, New York 24th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, New Hampshire 1st

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (1)

New York 19th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (20)

Illinois 14th, California 11th, Michigan 9th, Nevada 3rd, New York 13th, Indiana 9th, Ohio 18th, Illinois 8th, Arizona 5th, Indiana 2nd, Kansas 3rd, Ohio 16th, Texas 23rd, Florida 24th, Arizona 1st, Pennsylvania 4th, Arizona 8th, Illinois 11th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Virginia 11th

Currently Safe (214)

Senate Rankings 2.5.09

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
Wide Range: 56-44 DEM (+3 GOP) to 66-34 DEM (+7 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-37-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 1
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 7 GOP 3
2006/2008 Final Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 55%

* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated

Retirements/Open Seats

Democratic

Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not Running for Full Term)

Republican

Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
New Hampshire-Sen. Bonnie Newman (Appointed/Not running for new term)**
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)

** Assumes that Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) is confirmed as Secretary of Commerce

Republican Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Florida, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Louisiana

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kansas

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

North Carolina, Iowa

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Illinois

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Pennsylvania
7. Colorado
8. Louisiana
9. Nevada
10. North Dakota