Senate Rankings 1.29.09

Senate: Status Quo

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority
Projected Senate: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 62-38 DEM (+3 DEM)
Wide Range: 56-44 DEM (+3 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+6 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-38-3 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 60-40 DEM or 61-39 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 0
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 3 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 6 GOP 3
2006/2008 Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 30%

* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated

Retirements/Open Seats

Democratic

Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not Running for Full Term)

Republican

Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)

Republican Defenses

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Florida, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Louisiana

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kansas

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Illinois

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. Ohio
2. Florida
3. Missouri
4. Kentucky
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Louisiana
8. Nevada
9. North Dakota
10. Kansas