House Rankings 3.25.08

And here's the house ratings. Still too early in the cycle to get a real feel for which way the various house races are going to break, but it looks as though it's more likely than not that Nancy Pelosi will hold on to the speaker's gavel for a second term. Although Republican chances are certainly better in the lower chamber than in the Senate.

House (+2 DEM)

Update 4/2/08: New York 25th moved from Leans Republican to Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up

Current House: 233-198 DEM with 4 (1 DEM, 3 GOP) vacancies (+17 GOP needed for takeover)
Seats Needed for Veto-Proof House: +56 DEM or +89 GOP
Projected House: 236-199 DEM (+2 DEM)
Narrow Range: +6 DEM (240-195 DEM) to SQ (234-201 DEM)
Medium Range: +16 DEM (250-185 DEM) to +15 GOP (219-216 DEM)
Wide Range: +20 DEM (254-181 DEM) to +17 GOP (218-217 GOP)
Pundit Spread: +3 DEM (Cook +6 DEM, Crawford +2-3 DEM, Sabato +3 DEM, Rothenberg SQ-+1 GOP)
Current Vacancies:
Republican:Louisiana 1st (Bobby Jindal-Elected Governor of Louisiana)
Louisiana 6th (Richard Baker-Resigned)
Mississippi 1st (Roger Wicker-Appointed to United States Senate)
Democratic:Maryland 4th (Al Wynn-Resigned)
Likelihood of Turnover: 15%


Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic (1)

Illinois 11th

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (2)

New Mexico 1st, New York 25th

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (4)

Minnesota 3rd, Ohio 15th, Virginia 11th, Arizona 1st

Leans Republican (9)

Ohio 16th, New Jersey 7th, North Carolina 8th, New Jersey 3rd, Washington 8th, Connecticut 4th, Illinois 10th, Nevada 3rd, Alaska At-Large

Heavily Leans Republican (4)

Ohio 1st, Michigan 7th, New York 29th, Colorado 4th

Likely Republican (6)

Ohio 2nd, Michigan 9th, California 4th, Florida 13th, Missouri 6th, Pennsylvania 6th

Democratic Defenses

Leans Republican (1)

Alabama 5th

Leans Democratic (14)

Oregon 5th, Kansas 2nd, Texas 22nd, Florida 16th, Pennsylvania 10th, Illinois 14th*, California 11th, Georgia 8th, Ohio 18th, New Hampshire 1st, Arizona 5th, Wisconsin 8th, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 4th.

Heavily Leans Democratic (2)

Indiana 9th, New York 19th

Likely Democratic (5)

Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Arizona 8th, Minnesota 1st, Connecticut 2nd

* Seat changed hands from Republican to Democratic on March 8th, 2008 after Bill Foster's victory in a special election for the remainder of Dennis Hastert's term.